The cognitive bias of cherrypicking is everywhere. That is why we must always seek falsification not justification. Our biological need is to create regularity in order to limit demands on our individual and group neural (cognitive) economy. The most scientific method of doing so is self authoring. we can self author by the disciplined construction of virtues, by imitation of archetypes, or by submission to the pack and authority. We do not comprehend this as ‘self authoring’ – discipline of the intuition just as we discipline our bodies and reason through training – but it is as necessary if not the most necessary of the three. In practice only ‘repetitive rituals’ matter. The question is only how we perform those rituals, and what we program ourselves to do by performing those rituals, and the externalities caused by that programming (self authoring). We can program ourselves (virtues), or we can insulate our selves (buddhism, ritualism), or we can take programming from our kin (familialism) or we can take programming from authoritarian submission (prayer and community prayer). We can produce training to defeat nature (west), to live in harmony with nature (east), to an ideal (india), and to abandon reality (semitic). When augmented by festival (feast), sport, and civic ritual, we build training in trust of one another – the ritual of running with the pack is still in our genes. Piety and all synonyms are just submission to the pack. The more competitive the rituals the more militial. The more submissive the rituals the more slaves. China is the most durable civilization, our only substantial competitor, and not in any way like the semitic. Heterogeneity creates demand for authority. Homogeneity not. It was semitic heterogeneity, and east asian and western homogeneity that prevented demand. Just as today, the religion of postmodernism is a result of demand due to heterogeneity. In fact, they have and continue to ridicule us over our superstitions. We have a fairly good understanding of the evolution of authoritarian religion in response to demand for cooperation among peoples with demographically disadvantaged populations. Just as we have a fairly good understanding of the creation of familialism (emperor, king, ancestor) ‘worship’ (thanks, respect) in homogeneous societies. The dumber your people the greater your heterogeneity (number of signal competitors) the greater demand for authority. That authority will come in the form of propaganda (religion) and violence (the state), and not civil society and rule of traditional common law of property (tort). Choose: Kin (homogenous high), corporation (expansionary middle ), authoritarian religion (exhausted low). Human capital determines everything
Form: Mini Essay
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Predictions
September 15th, 2018 11:19 PM
—“You predicted the 2020 crash in 2006, right before the 2008 meltdown? Could you compare and contrast the 2008 crisis with what you see coming, and perhaps how the 2008 housing crash ties in to 2020?”—
1 – In the end all economics like all politics is and must be demographics. That’s the net of it right there. 2 – World demographics on the adoption of consumer capitalism and the exhaustion of western advantage. 3 – Western demographics, immigration, and rates of dysgenia will tip sufficiently to act as last resort. 4 – Since every generation is a reaction to the generation before it, people behave in predictable cycles. 5 – The long wave of generations means the world war generations are gone and the communist generation is almost gone. 6 – People school and swarm to opportunities until disequlibrium requires adjustment of patterns of sustainable specialization and trade because of a sufficient shock to collapse them. There is a relationship between the capital investment, debt load, remaining debt capacity, AND the discovery, forgetting, and learning curves of humans that is measurable in all walks of human life: we are new people about every three to four years: the time it takes to cognitively rehabituate so that we no longer bear the cognitive load of group adaptation to changing conditions. So there is a fairly fixed rate of adaptation that is a relationship between the degree of capital required for any sector. 7 – The business cycle exists and the austrians are right that they continuously extend if interfered with. This plot (trajectory) is relatively obvious. 8 – Consumers are literally running out of accumulated entertainment capital to consume. They have been for some time. Much of the expansion of the 90s and 2000’s was expansion of homes to keep the economy generating demand, and use of technology to enable increases in the consumption of entertainment. That inventory is exhausted. 9 – The technological curve of monetary policy appears to have been exhausted, and the next choice is not settled in policy as to whether to use direct redistribution to consumers (me, galbraith, mmt folks), or to let the government spend it instead (every left economist there is.) 10 – The technological curve of the transistor’s influence is almost exhausted, as was electricity’s, steam, and water power before it. 11 – organizing people by markets requires marginal differences in capital and the human capital reserves to make use of them. Those reserves are just about exhausted. 12 – low hanging fruit of hydrocarbons exploitation has been exhausted; movement of labor has been exhausted; the clerical automation is close to exhausted, and the financialization has led to fragility dependent on hyperconsumption, but consumption of what? We are no longer, and have not for many many years, been enabling underused european human capital, but importing consumers by financing credit in exchange for drastic declines in human capital as is evidenced in the data. 13 – There is, as I understand it, a relatively long curve between the current technological basis of civilizations, and the next predictable curve which is artificial intelligence, end of oil dependence, and genetic modification. I cannot yet imagine how the economy will organize to produce the same kind of multiples we have been producing since 1830 by the movement of labor from less productive to more, when we will now be in the position of moving labor into less and less productive ends. This means that the bottom has returned to dead weight, and the central problem going forward 14 – The way I predicted the economy when I was in my 30s and 40’s was studying the relationship between technological opportunities that could be seized by consumers and industry, right down to what was on the shelves in big box stores. And then predicting the life cycle those offerings. (I mean, how much better can a video game get?) The reason is that we have spent the past 200 years moving people into the middle class (meaning living in, able to consume in, and to own property, in the market economy.) But what do people have left to consume that is a marginal im provement? NOTHING BUT AESTHETICS AND STATUS SEEKING IDENTITY. Which is precisely what we are seeing. Urbanites using fashion because consumption of middle class goods is no longer status provisioning. All of these things can be predicted on a series of overlapping curves on a timeline with ‘loose’ accuracy. Once you consider all of those curves at the same time the interplay of dependency becomes fairly obvious, and you can ‘feel’ how the sentiment will evolve. By 2006 I had that set of curves in my head. Which is why I was within 30 days of 2008. (but wrong on china). And I’ve been right about the cycle so far. Trump was a wild card and now i suspect that actions against him will produce movement that accelerates the cycles. Now am I all that special? no. There was a fairly well known niche movement in the 90’s and 2000s (contrarianism) that was tracking these cycles, and making predictions. I am not really sure why, given that those were correct and that the austrians were correct, why this isn’t still under discussion other than the overwhelming embarrassment of the economic community, and its movement from broad to near predictions, and the current worldwide civil war between globalists and nationalists has taken attention from prediction of long waves, to simply winning the near term battle.
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Predictions
September 15th, 2018 11:19 PM
—“You predicted the 2020 crash in 2006, right before the 2008 meltdown? Could you compare and contrast the 2008 crisis with what you see coming, and perhaps how the 2008 housing crash ties in to 2020?”—
1 – In the end all economics like all politics is and must be demographics. That’s the net of it right there. 2 – World demographics on the adoption of consumer capitalism and the exhaustion of western advantage. 3 – Western demographics, immigration, and rates of dysgenia will tip sufficiently to act as last resort. 4 – Since every generation is a reaction to the generation before it, people behave in predictable cycles. 5 – The long wave of generations means the world war generations are gone and the communist generation is almost gone. 6 – People school and swarm to opportunities until disequlibrium requires adjustment of patterns of sustainable specialization and trade because of a sufficient shock to collapse them. There is a relationship between the capital investment, debt load, remaining debt capacity, AND the discovery, forgetting, and learning curves of humans that is measurable in all walks of human life: we are new people about every three to four years: the time it takes to cognitively rehabituate so that we no longer bear the cognitive load of group adaptation to changing conditions. So there is a fairly fixed rate of adaptation that is a relationship between the degree of capital required for any sector. 7 – The business cycle exists and the austrians are right that they continuously extend if interfered with. This plot (trajectory) is relatively obvious. 8 – Consumers are literally running out of accumulated entertainment capital to consume. They have been for some time. Much of the expansion of the 90s and 2000’s was expansion of homes to keep the economy generating demand, and use of technology to enable increases in the consumption of entertainment. That inventory is exhausted. 9 – The technological curve of monetary policy appears to have been exhausted, and the next choice is not settled in policy as to whether to use direct redistribution to consumers (me, galbraith, mmt folks), or to let the government spend it instead (every left economist there is.) 10 – The technological curve of the transistor’s influence is almost exhausted, as was electricity’s, steam, and water power before it. 11 – organizing people by markets requires marginal differences in capital and the human capital reserves to make use of them. Those reserves are just about exhausted. 12 – low hanging fruit of hydrocarbons exploitation has been exhausted; movement of labor has been exhausted; the clerical automation is close to exhausted, and the financialization has led to fragility dependent on hyperconsumption, but consumption of what? We are no longer, and have not for many many years, been enabling underused european human capital, but importing consumers by financing credit in exchange for drastic declines in human capital as is evidenced in the data. 13 – There is, as I understand it, a relatively long curve between the current technological basis of civilizations, and the next predictable curve which is artificial intelligence, end of oil dependence, and genetic modification. I cannot yet imagine how the economy will organize to produce the same kind of multiples we have been producing since 1830 by the movement of labor from less productive to more, when we will now be in the position of moving labor into less and less productive ends. This means that the bottom has returned to dead weight, and the central problem going forward 14 – The way I predicted the economy when I was in my 30s and 40’s was studying the relationship between technological opportunities that could be seized by consumers and industry, right down to what was on the shelves in big box stores. And then predicting the life cycle those offerings. (I mean, how much better can a video game get?) The reason is that we have spent the past 200 years moving people into the middle class (meaning living in, able to consume in, and to own property, in the market economy.) But what do people have left to consume that is a marginal im provement? NOTHING BUT AESTHETICS AND STATUS SEEKING IDENTITY. Which is precisely what we are seeing. Urbanites using fashion because consumption of middle class goods is no longer status provisioning. All of these things can be predicted on a series of overlapping curves on a timeline with ‘loose’ accuracy. Once you consider all of those curves at the same time the interplay of dependency becomes fairly obvious, and you can ‘feel’ how the sentiment will evolve. By 2006 I had that set of curves in my head. Which is why I was within 30 days of 2008. (but wrong on china). And I’ve been right about the cycle so far. Trump was a wild card and now i suspect that actions against him will produce movement that accelerates the cycles. Now am I all that special? no. There was a fairly well known niche movement in the 90’s and 2000s (contrarianism) that was tracking these cycles, and making predictions. I am not really sure why, given that those were correct and that the austrians were correct, why this isn’t still under discussion other than the overwhelming embarrassment of the economic community, and its movement from broad to near predictions, and the current worldwide civil war between globalists and nationalists has taken attention from prediction of long waves, to simply winning the near term battle.
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POLITICAL REALISM The strong start from the position of inequality, and the util
POLITICAL REALISM
The strong start from the position of inequality, and the utility of slavery, productive serfdom, financial serfdom, political serfdom. The market simply produces greater returns for the strong, largely in the reduction of costs of policing the slaves and serfs, since they self police in order to maintain access to consumption; and in the much higher productivity of the serfs due to the incentive to produce to control their levels of consumption. The weak start from the false premise of equality. And all deductions are false from that premise forward.
The production of markets is in the interests of the strong. The production of relative inequality is in the intersets of the strong.
Only a militia is free, because only a militia is equal in ownership of the market.
Source date (UTC): 2018-09-14 10:11:00 UTC
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September 14th, 2018 10:11 AM POLITICAL REALISM [T]he strong start from the posi
September 14th, 2018 10:11 AM POLITICAL REALISM [T]he strong start from the position of inequality, and the utility of slavery, productive serfdom, financial serfdom, political serfdom. The market simply produces greater returns for the strong, largely in the reduction of costs of policing the slaves and serfs, since they self police in order to maintain access to consumption; and in the much higher productivity of the serfs due to the incentive to produce to control their levels of consumption. The weak start from the false premise of equality. And all deductions are false from that premise forward. The production of markets is in the interests of the strong. The production of relative inequality is in the intersets of the strong. Only a militia is free, because only a militia is equal in ownership of the market.
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September 14th, 2018 10:11 AM POLITICAL REALISM [T]he strong start from the posi
September 14th, 2018 10:11 AM POLITICAL REALISM [T]he strong start from the position of inequality, and the utility of slavery, productive serfdom, financial serfdom, political serfdom. The market simply produces greater returns for the strong, largely in the reduction of costs of policing the slaves and serfs, since they self police in order to maintain access to consumption; and in the much higher productivity of the serfs due to the incentive to produce to control their levels of consumption. The weak start from the false premise of equality. And all deductions are false from that premise forward. The production of markets is in the interests of the strong. The production of relative inequality is in the intersets of the strong. Only a militia is free, because only a militia is equal in ownership of the market.
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JP Morgan: Recession 2020
TOLD YA SO. But I said it in 2006—“Daniel Roland Anderson: Curt Doolittle: You predicted the 2020 crash in 2006, right before the 2008 meltdown? Could you compare and contrast the 2008 crisis with what you see coming, and perhaps how the 2008 housing crash ties in to 2020?”—Curt Doolittle: Rakesh Sahgal, Daniel Roland Anderson1 – In the end all economics like all politics is and must be demographics. That’s the net of it right there.2 – World demographics on the adoption of consumer capitalism and the exhaustion of western advantage.3 – Western demographics, immigration, and rates of dysgenia will tip sufficiently to act as last resort.4 – Since every generation is a reaction to the generation before it, people behave in predictable cycles.5 – The long wave of generations means the world war generations are gone and the communist generation is almost gone.6 – People school and swarm to opportunities until disequilibrium requires adjustment of patterns of sustainable specialization and trade because of a sufficient shock to collapse them. There is a relationship between the capital investment, debt load, remaining debt capacity, AND the discovery, forgetting, and learning curves of humans that is measurable in all walks of human life: we are new people about every three to four years: the time it takes to cognitively rehabituate so that we no longer bear the cognitive load of group adaptation to changing conditions. So there is a fairly fixed rate of adaptation that is a relationship between the degree of capital required for any sector.7 – The business cycle exists and the austrians are right that they continuously extend if interfered with. This plot (trajectory) is relatively obvious.8 – Consumers are literally running out of accumulated entertainment capital to consume. They have been for some time. Much of the expansion of the 90s and 2000’s was expansion of homes to keep the economy generating demand, and use of technology to enable increases in the consumption of entertainment. That inventory is exhausted.9 – The technological curve of monetary policy appears to have been exhausted, and the next choice is not settled in policy as to whether to use direct redistribution to consumers (me, galbraith, mmt folks), or to let the government spend it instead (every left economist there is.)10 – The technological curve of the transistor’s influence is almost exhausted, as was electricity’s, steam, and water power before it.11 – organizing people by markets requires marginal differences in capital and the human capital reserves to make use of them. Those reserves are just about exhausted.12 – low hanging fruit of hydrocarbons exploitation has been exhausted; movement of labor has been exhausted; the clerical automation is close to exhausted, and the financialization has led to fragility dependent on hyperconsumption, but consumption of what? We are no longer, and have not for many many years, been enabling underused european human capital, but importing consumers by financing credit in exchange for drastic declines in human capital as is evidenced in the data.13 – There is, as I understand it, a relatively long curve between the current technological basis of civilizations, and the next predictable curve which is artificial intelligence, end of oil dependence, and genetic modification. I cannot yet imagine how the economy will organize to produce the same kind of multiples we have been producing since 1830 by the movement of labor from less productive to more, when we will now be in the position of moving labor into less and less productive ends. This means that the bottom has returned to dead weight, and the central problem going forward14 – The way I predicted the economy when I was in my 30s and 40’s was studying the relationship between technological opportunities that could be seized by consumers and industry, right down to what was on the shelves in big box stores. And then predicting the life cycle those offerings. (I mean, how much better can a video game get?) The reason is that we have spent the past 200 years moving people into the middle class (meaning living in, able to consume in, and to own property, in the market economy.)But what do people have left to consume that is a marginal improvement? NOTHING BUT AESTHETICS AND STATUS SEEKING IDENTITY.Which is precisely what we are seeing. Urbanites using fashion because consumption of middle class goods is no longer status provisioning. All of these things can be predicted on a series of overlapping curves on a timeline with ‘loose’ accuracy. Once you consider all of those curves at the same time the interplay of dependency becomes fairly obvious, and you can ‘feel’ how the sentiment will evolve.By 2006 I had that set of curves in my head. Which is why I was within 30 days of 2008. (but wrong on china). And I’ve been right about the cycle so far. Trump was a wild card and now i suspect that actions against him will produce movement that accelerates the cycles.Now am I all that special? no. There was a fairly well known niche movement in the 90’s and 2000s (contrarianism) that was tracking these cycles, and making predictions. I am not really sure why, given that those were correct and that the austrians were correct, why this isn’t still under discussion other than the overwhelming embarrassment of the economic community, and its movement from broad to near predictions, and the current worldwide civil war between globalists and nationalists has taken attention from prediction of long waves, to simply winning the near term battle. -
People Are 100% Responsible
[P]eople ARE 100% responsible for their success and failures TO REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL in the market for competency. 1) Any attempt to reach more than their relative ability to reach their full potential must be obtained by stealing from others who are more competent, and causing harm to the polity because of it. 2) pareto rule MUST exist: 10% do 50% of the value, 10% of that 10% do 50% of the value, and 10% of that 10% do 50% of the value and so on. Meaning that most people below a certain threshold, are a relative dead weight on society and mankind. 3) The difference is that conservatives desire and enjoy hierarchy and are not troubled by ‘fulfilling their duty of their position” while liberals think of almost nothing else than that others are superior to them in position, and are so because of competency. 4) Where competency means genes, ability, personality, morals, ethics, values, manners, habits, speech, appearance. 5) Classes exist. At every seven points we vary in vocational ability, and at every 15 points social ability, and at ever4 30 points we are nearly different species, with the commonality of language producing the illusion of compatibility. 6) We are, all of us, and must be, rewarded for the returns we provide to others when they cooperate with us. 7) And the results of that competition is a lottery with only so many pareto-efficient winners. Who, if they make good choices, can create an intergenerational family that persists their status – something that requires selective mating to prevent regression to the collective mean.
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People Are 100% Responsible
[P]eople ARE 100% responsible for their success and failures TO REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL in the market for competency. 1) Any attempt to reach more than their relative ability to reach their full potential must be obtained by stealing from others who are more competent, and causing harm to the polity because of it. 2) pareto rule MUST exist: 10% do 50% of the value, 10% of that 10% do 50% of the value, and 10% of that 10% do 50% of the value and so on. Meaning that most people below a certain threshold, are a relative dead weight on society and mankind. 3) The difference is that conservatives desire and enjoy hierarchy and are not troubled by ‘fulfilling their duty of their position” while liberals think of almost nothing else than that others are superior to them in position, and are so because of competency. 4) Where competency means genes, ability, personality, morals, ethics, values, manners, habits, speech, appearance. 5) Classes exist. At every seven points we vary in vocational ability, and at every 15 points social ability, and at ever4 30 points we are nearly different species, with the commonality of language producing the illusion of compatibility. 6) We are, all of us, and must be, rewarded for the returns we provide to others when they cooperate with us. 7) And the results of that competition is a lottery with only so many pareto-efficient winners. Who, if they make good choices, can create an intergenerational family that persists their status – something that requires selective mating to prevent regression to the collective mean.
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I Don’t Empathize with the Leftist Mind
September 12th, 2018 3:52 PM [I] just don’t understand the envy of the leftist mind. I mean, I am not tall enough to play major sports, or run a fortune 500 company for that matter. I have a touch of autism that prevents me from doing many things. I’ve been severely ill for large parts of my life. But I never really envy anyone other than the ordinary middle class guy who finds entertainment and joy in life’s simple pleasures, family and friends. I mean I looked up to people and tried to imitate them. I tried to learn from many people. I worked far harder than most people can imagine. But envy? What is wrong with the ‘equalitarian’ mind?