Contrast Anglo-American Liberalism with German Thought
Cheers
Curt Doolittle
The Natural Law Institute
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-20 16:53:32 UTC
Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/2035037034726007251
Cheers
Curt Doolittle
The Natural Law Institute
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-20 16:53:32 UTC
Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/2035037034726007251
Interesting. The Israelis are pushing the chips all in against both Iran and their proxies in Lebanon.
The strategic problem with authoritarian states like Russia and Iran is their dependence upon large domestic police and paramilitary organiztions to contain the population. This is made worse when the mullahs are in charge since they are the equivalent of neighborhood activists. And unlike bureaucrats we have in most developed countries, who will merely lose their jobs (at least for a while), The regular police, then, the mullahs (political agents), the morality police (Gasht-e Ershad or Guidance Patrols), The Law Enforcement Command of the Islamic Republic of Iran (FARAJA), Basij paramilitary force, and the IRGC with the IRGC functioning as the ideological army.
Local mullahs help maintain oppression by providing ideological cover, local compliance, and mobilization support—especially in conservative communities—but they are not the primary enforcers. The oppressive apparatus relies far more on the IRGC/Basij for coercion and the Supreme Leader’s centralized clerical oversight for structure. High-level clerics (not local ones) hold veto powers via constitutional bodies.
What does this mean? It means you have to ‘off’ a lot of people, and in most cases that takes a military on one end or a population that can gain access to arms on the other.
The Israelis have no problem doing the ‘offing’ as we have seen. But there is a lot of it to be done.
The regime’s structure is deliberately layered, resilient, and decentralized in key ways to survive leadership decapitation, internal crises, or external pressure.
Why “Offing” Senior Positions Isn’t Enough
The Islamic Republic was engineered post-1979 to avoid the vulnerabilities of a single-point-of-failure system (like the Shah’s monarchy). Power is distributed across interlocking institutions, with ideological loyalty baked in at multiple levels:
Supreme Leader → Symbolic and doctrinal head (velayat-e faqih). Killing or removing him triggers constitutional succession (e.g., Assembly of Experts or interim councils), but the system has mechanisms to replace him quickly—often with someone from the same hardline clerical-IRGC ecosystem.
Clerical establishment → Bodies like the Assembly of Experts, Guardian Council, and Expediency Council vet leaders and policy. These are networks of thousands of mid- and lower-level clerics who provide religious legitimacy and local ideological control. Many are regime-dependent (salaries, perks), so they resist collapse.
IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) → The real backbone. ~150,000–200,000 elite forces, plus control of the Basij paramilitary (hundreds of thousands of volunteers/mobilizable members embedded in neighborhoods, workplaces, schools). The IRGC isn’t just military—it’s an economic empire (controlling oil, construction, telecoms) and intelligence apparatus. It exists explicitly to protect the revolutionary system, not just one leader.
Basij and security layers → Neighborhood-level surveillance, morality enforcement, and rapid-response repression. They form a “dense web” for grassroots control and crackdowns (as seen in 2022 and January 2026 protests).
Other pillars → Judiciary (hardline-aligned), intelligence (VEVAK/MOIS), regular police (FARAJA), and even parts of the conventional army (Artesh) that can be co-opted in crises.
Recent events (Khamenei’s death in late February 2026 airstrikes, followed by an interim council and rapid succession moves) illustrate this: The regime didn’t collapse. Instead, power shifted toward IRGC-aligned figures, with warnings of a potential “garrison state” or hardened militarized rule emerging from the vacuum.
What Full Regime Change Would Actually Require
Analysts and recent assessments agree that meaningful change (ending velayat-e faqih, dismantling theocratic-IRGC dominance, allowing secular/democratic transition) demands disrupting or dismantling multiple layers simultaneously:
Massive internal uprising — Sustained, nationwide protests that overwhelm security forces (as attempted in January 2026 but brutally suppressed with 30,000+ deaths reported in some estimates).
Significant defections or fracturing — Within the IRGC, Basij, or Artesh. Without this, loyalists regroup and repress (no major defections occurred post-Khamenei).
Neutralizing the coercive apparatus — Targeting IRGC command structures, Basij networks, intelligence, and economic assets to break their ability to hold neighborhoods and crush dissent. Air/missile strikes alone degrade capabilities but don’t eliminate the embedded, ideological forces.
Often external pressure — U.S./Israeli actions can weaken the regime (e.g., destroying nuclear/missile sites, killing leaders), but historical cases show air campaigns rarely achieve regime change without ground/internal follow-through (Libya, Iraq parallels cited).
Some scenarios predict:
IRGC takeover → A more openly militarized “garrison state” if clerics weaken.
Survival/hardening → Regime consolidates under new hardliners.
True collapse → Only if protests + defections + sustained external weakening create a tipping point (possible but not yet realized in 2026).
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-18 23:27:03 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034411288517017832
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-16 19:00:54 UTC
Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/2033619533286797686
THE REAL DAMAGE THE LEFT ACHIEVED THROUGH EMPATHY RATHER THAN TRUTH
We used to be humble. The left intentionally trained generations to assert false confidence in justification of their intuitions rather than skepticism of them, and testimony under that skepticism, in order to undermine our ancient traditions of self regulation, self skepticism, and humility in order to weaponize the arrogance and ignorance of the inexperienced against the polity to generate demand for the left’s authority, and the gradual erasure of our traditions values institutions morals and norms.
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-14 16:51:42 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032862245903028691
THE SCOPE OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ATTEMPT TO CONTROL WORLD OIL PRICES AND SUPPLY
The United States employs a multifaceted strategy to exert control over global oil supplies, often framed within broader geopolitical competition, particularly to limit adversaries like China’s access to affordable energy. This includes direct interventions, sanctions, military posture, alliances, and domestic policies. Below is a breakdown of key actions beyond those directly involving Venezuela and Iran (such as recent military interventions and sanctions that have disrupted Chinese imports from these sources).
Sanctions and Enforcement on Other Oil Producers
Russia: The US has maintained extensive sanctions on Russian oil exports since the Ukraine conflict, aiming to reduce Moscow’s revenues and limit discounted supplies to China (which has become a major buyer). However, in early 2026, the US temporarily lifted some sanctions on Russian oil to stabilize global markets amid price spikes from the Iran conflict. This selective easing demonstrates US leverage in modulating supply. Additionally, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed new sanctions on major Russian firms like Rosneft and Lukoil in late 2025, further tightening control.
Pressure on Buyers: The US has demanded that China cease imports of Russian and Iranian oil, using diplomatic and secondary sanctions to enforce compliance. This extends to using newly controlled Venezuelan oil to pressure countries like India to halt purchases of discounted Russian crude and to cut off supplies to Cuba.
Military and Geopolitical Leverage in Key Regions
Middle East Dominance: Through US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US maintains a significant military presence (over 30,000 troops, bases in allied countries) in the region, which holds nearly half of global oil reserves. In a conflict scenario, this allows the US to block oil shipments to China via chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz (handling ~20% of global oil flows and most of China’s Middle East imports), Suez Canal, or Bab al-Mandab. This posture preserves options to disrupt ~50% of China’s seaborne oil imports, enhancing US leverage in great-power competition.
Engagement in Resource-Rich Areas: The US is expanding diplomatic and economic ties in Latin America (e.g., lithium in Chile/Argentina), Africa (to counter Chinese dominance in cobalt/rare earths), and Central Asia (oil/gas infrastructure investments) to diversify supply chains away from China and secure alliances. This indirectly influences oil flows by reducing China’s embedded presence in these regions.
Domestic and Export Policies
Boosting US Production and Exports: Under the “energy dominance” agenda in the 2025 National Security Strategy, the US has prioritized saturating global markets with American hydrocarbons (oil and LNG) to deepen alliances, provide energy security to Europe and Asia, and undercut adversaries’ revenues. US crude output averaged ~13.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with 2026 projections holding steady at ~13.5 million b/d, positioning the US as a “swing exporter.” New LNG facilities (e.g., Plaquemines, Golden Pass) are expanding capacity to ~16.3 billion cubic feet per day by 2026, further enhancing export leverage.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Management: The US uses its SPR (world’s largest at 714 million barrels capacity) to influence prices, with rebuilds since 2023 providing a buffer for releases during disruptions. President Trump has considered restricting US oil exports to manage domestic supply and curb inflation, prioritizing strategic stockpiling.
Trade and Regulatory Tools
Tariffs and Export Controls: Broad tariffs on imports (including energy-related tech) and restrictions on Chinese firms in clean energy/critical materials aim to slow China’s ascent and limit its access to advanced equipment, indirectly affecting global energy dynamics. Ongoing negotiations could adjust tariffs on oil/gas-related goods under sections like 232.
Supply Chain Reshoring: Massive subsidies and incentives (e.g., via the Inflation Reduction Act remnants) rebuild US manufacturing for batteries, solar, and strategic tech, creating resilient chains outside China and treating industrial capacity as national defense.
These efforts collectively aim to sustain US influence over ~20% of global oil production (including indirect control via Canada, Guyana, and Venezuela) while countering de-dollarization trends in energy trade. Analysts view this as seeking leverage against China, akin to China’s control over rare earths, by dominating energy supply chains. However, global oversupply projections for 2026 (e.g., 4 million b/d surplus) could temper prices, potentially deferring investments and setting up future shortages.
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-14 02:58:03 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032652448813428836
WHAT I’M DOING: TURNING HUMAN SPEECH INTO DECIDABLE PROPOSITIONS
What are mathematics, programming, formal language, operational language, and ordinary language, other than successive methods of reduction for the production of testifiability?
Each takes the excess of reality and compresses it into a narrower set of admissible distinctions so that some class of claims can be inspected, compared, reproduced, falsified, or enforced.
Ordinary language performs the loosest reduction and therefore preserves the greatest breadth of human life, but at the cost of ambiguity and strategic elasticity.
Formal language, mathematics, and programming purchase higher decidability by sacrificing semantic range for syntactic constraint, invariance, and executability.
Operational language is the necessary intermediate where human conflict resides: it does not attempt to replace ordinary speech, but to reduce contested speech into propositions sufficiently explicit for tests of truth, reciprocity, and goodness.
So the issue is not whether language is reducible—all language is already reduction. The issue is whether the reduction is sufficient for the burden at hand, and in matters of conflict, meaningful speech is necessary but insufficient until reduced to adjudicable form.
Cheers
CD
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-11 19:18:24 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2031811997793481182
(AI STUPIDITY)
Another example of why the AI’s are really, really dumb, even when working with code. At least, when working with bleeding edge LLM code.
Explanation:
The AI”s have sort of ‘centers of gravity’. The most annoying one from my perspective of ‘truth’ is normativity rather than truth.
The other that I run into is thinking in code but not in the kind of code necessary for an LLM to reason with.
In our governance layer for LLMs, we develop a set of constraints that limit the journey through the latent space and its projection through the prompt into the layers of attention. These are not ‘close enough’ suggestions, they are constraints. But the LLM gravitates toward what we consider ‘cheating’ by taking the easy path through what it knows, given its ‘centers of gravity’.
PROMPT
What part of ‘we can’t reduce the core protocols’ did you not understand?
RESPONSE
Thought for a couple of secondsI understood it.
I violated it in the recommendation.
You were explicit: the core protocols are not to be reduced.
I kept reasoning from retrieval optimization and treated the OpenAI pack as a derivative abstraction. That was the wrong priority relative to your stated constraint.
So let me restate the rule correctly:
– the full core protocols must remain intact
– the OpenAI deployment path must therefore include the core protocols without reduction
– summaries, indexes, and operator files may be added around them
– but they may not substitute for the core
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-08 19:55:23 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2030734144322601336
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-06 20:10:55 UTC
Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/2030013275430436888
Trump is a predicable reformer president. We have them about every 80 years, just as we have economic cycles every 50 years. He just happens to be president when the two cycles are converging.
The US Political system can accomodate reformer presidents and still return to republican government afterward.
In the past most reformers produced unification of the states under a stronger federal government in response to world and domestic pressures. This time it looks like we are returning to 19th century form in response to changes in world events.
Our challenge is that we need him for two terms if not three for the process to complete in domestic ‘settlement’ (conflict reduction). So the process may remain undone and conflict continue.
I’ll stay on record with the problem being not only immigration but the introgression of women in to voting – which appears to be a biologically instinctual problem we cannot overcome. Male bias favors truth before face which is stressful in time but evolutionary over time. But female bias favors face before truth to avoid stress in time and is destructive over time.
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-03 18:55:47 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028907203747561613
THE QUESTION OF LLM CONSCIOUSNESS
It can’t be conscious (as we humans are) without persistent memory, some equivalent of homeostasis as measurement, some continuous self assessment (self), and the capacity to plan its own continuous innovation and adaptation.
However consciousness is a spectrum from awareness, to assessment, to prediction, to planning and acting. But without a sense of self an AI is not ever going to be ‘conscious’ outside of a given conversation.
LLMs produce the human language faculty. They do not yet produce the other necessary faculties for consciousness. Those other faculties are enumerable (we can know them) and they can be produced, but at even larger costs. So, we need to continue to see costs decline in order to implement them with any degree of feasibility at scale.
Source date (UTC): 2026-03-02 17:59:36 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2028530676639900050