Curt Doolittle

Form: Mini Essay

  • Our GDP FIgures are relatively meaningless and most economists understand that i

    Our GDP FIgures are relatively meaningless and most economists understand that it’s just ‘best we can do’ as a global approximate set of weights and measures.

    Now, for forty years or so I”ve been complaining about the Accounting profession because between lenders and the government, and standard accounting practices, ‘information is laundered from the money’ as it passes through the organization. And the reason is that its more work to ‘account properly’, and more work to find errors if you do account properly.

    So I want a cash, operating, financial(asset changes), ebitda, and interest, taxes, and finally net representation of any business so that I don’t have to deconstruct it myself. And I want to see P&L’s and Balance sheets monthly so that I don’t have to have the memory of an elephant. (in services I want numbers weekly). We’ve (my team) generally works on a six week window so that we react quickly. Some companies can’t put their numbers out within that time. (I built software so that I see everything in real time. Something that’sthe envy of any ceo in any business.)

    Now, for the public sector, it’s both a matter of laundering information from money (and laundering money), but worse, we don’t really keep a balance sheet. And if we did we don’t include the CAPITAL of every kind on it. Which would include every kind of human capital, resource capital, infrastructure capital, and every other demonstrated interest.

    Now, we should separate strategic industries from non. And production from non. etc, so that we know when we are losing production capacity and shifting it to financial capacity, and creating an economic imbalance.

    And just as in business, moving assets around can mask losses, in public sector accounting, not only is debt a problem but BURNING DOWN CAPITAL is an extraordinary problem.

    Now, you don’t know this but our organization’s software will eventually do this. But that’s going to take millions more investment to do it.

    Why would a government resist it?

    That much transparency prevents lying.

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 22:52:47 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633239297938673669

  • WESTERN VS RU+CN MILITARY PRODUCTION CAPACITY We still have the problem of ~700M

    WESTERN VS RU+CN MILITARY PRODUCTION CAPACITY
    We still have the problem of ~700M Europeans and 300 Americans or 1B people against China’s and Russia’s ~1.5B who work 12 hrs a day, and where Russia has the resources and China has the manufacturing capacity. Could we switch to a wartime economy? Sure. I don’t trust the present administration to do so. We’re producing 5x more artillery shells but that’s not enough. We need to ramp up production on various expendable weapons, especially missiles, and that takes time – the factories don’t exist. It’s not even clear we can make steel fast enough although plants are starting to come online. We’re moving chip factories here, but that’s going to take three years. So, you know, we would have to be the aggressor fast, and then production would have to be accelerated and I’m not sure we have the supply chain for it.

    China helping Russia with arms will help keep the USA drawing down on ammunition and arms. Even if it’s just artillery, ammunition, and other expendables.

    Some pundits say China won’t aggress against Taiwan, but I absolutely positively see them doing it, because it’s going to be their means of justifying maintaining power, while they blame the west for their looming economic collapse. I mean. If I had their hand, I’d play it exactly as I’m watching them do it.

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 22:13:11 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633229332498857985

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633215646065459201

  • WESTERN VS RU+CN MILITARY PRODUCTION CAPACITY We still have the problem of ~700M

    WESTERN VS RU+CN MILITARY PRODUCTION CAPACITY
    We still have the problem of ~700M Europeans and 300 Americans or 1B people against China’s and Russia’s ~1.5B who work 12 hrs a day, and where Russia has the resources and China has the manufacturing capacity. Could we switch to a wartime economy? Sure. I don’t trust the present administration to do so. We’re producing 5x more artillery shells but that’s not enough. We need to ramp up production on various expendable weapons, especially missiles, and that takes time – the factories don’t exist. It’s not even clear we can make steel fast enough although plants are starting to come online. We’re moving chip factories here, but that’s going to take three years. So, you know, we would have to be the aggressor fast, and then production would have to be accelerated and I’m not sure we have the supply chain for it.

    China helping Russia with arms will help keep the USA drawing down on ammunition and arms. Even if it’s just artillery, ammunition, and other expendables.

    Some pundits say China won’t aggress against Taiwan, but I absolutely positively see them doing it, because it’s going to be their means of justifying maintaining power, while they blame the west for their looming economic collapse. I mean. If I had their hand, I’d play it exactly as I’m watching them do it.

    Reply addressees: @Jnati404

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 22:13:11 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633229332364533764

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633215646065459201

  • DO WE HAVE A SOUL? IF SO, HOW? I should ‘science’ the concept of the soul in a v

    DO WE HAVE A SOUL? IF SO, HOW?

    I should ‘science’ the concept of the soul in a video.

    Like many intuitions of the ancients, they simply had no means of describing an experience other than in supernatural terms. Yet, there is a biological process and resulting intuition and behavior that is analogous to the soul. 1) A low level persistence of your behavior in time. 2) Others memories of you over time, that do somewhat play out. 3) And there is some merit to the soul/karma concept in demonstrable outcomes because of them.

    These three concepts can be expressed as derivations of the laws of the universe. But, just as you need legs to run, and running is a potential only until you do run, and running comes into existence only as you are running. Likewise, a soul needs a nervous system, and it needs biological processes, and mental processes to come into existence.

    Humans, whose primary competitive value comes from specializing in adaptation itself, and the utility of returns on cooperation over time, are very good at subconsciously ‘computing’ debts owed and credits issued, with status as the means of increasing opportunities, and decreasing costs of debts owed and credits issued.

    One of the universe’s unpleasant truths is that the brain is an acquisition engine, and cooperation can vastly improve cooperation, and status vastly improves the number and quality of opportunities to cooperation with increasingly successful returns. We humans try to paint a nice picture of ourselves, but we are just an extension of the physical universe. We dissipate energy (entropy) and we counter it by capturing energy (negative entropy). And as Adam smith demonstrated, many hands make for far lighter work than you’d expect by orders of magnitude.

    But we’re still just doing what every animal, plant, molecule, element, particle, proto particle are doing: trying to maintain enough energy to persist (exist) before we dissipate back into the quantum background.

    Your soul is your internal chart of accounts of harms(debts) and contributions (credits) and your status is something you face every day in the mirror. It’s very hard to lie to ourselves. And other people often keep very good accounting of us too. With the record of both often written in the expressions on our faces.

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 20:57:30 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633210285342203904

  • DO WE HAVE A SOUL? IF SO, HOW? I should ‘science’ the concept of the soul in a v

    DO WE HAVE A SOUL? IF SO, HOW?

    I should ‘science’ the concept of the soul in a video.

    Like many intuitions of the ancients, they simply had no means of describing an experience other than in supernatural terms. Yet, there is a biological process and resulting intuition and behavior that is analogous to the soul. 1) A low level persistence of your behavior in time. 2) Others memories of you over time, that do somewhat play out. 3) And there is some merit to the soul/karma concept in demonstrable outcomes because of them.

    These three concepts can be expressed as derivations of the laws of the universe. But, just as you need legs to run, and running is a potential only until you do run, and running comes into existence only as you are running. Likewise, a soul needs a nervous system, and it needs biological processes, and mental processes to come into existence.

    Humans, whose primary competitive value comes from specializing in adaptation itself, and the utility of returns on cooperation over time, are very good at subconsciously ‘computing’ debts owed and credits issued, with status as the means of increasing opportunities, and decreasing costs of debts owed and credits issued.

    One of the universe’s unpleasant truths is that the brain is an acquisition engine, and cooperation can vastly improve cooperation, and status vastly improves the number and quality of opportunities to cooperation with increasingly successful returns. We humans try to paint a nice picture of ourselves, but we are just an extension of the physical universe. We dissipate energy (entropy) and we counter it by capturing energy (negative entropy). And as Adam smith demonstrated, many hands make for far lighter work than you’d expect by orders of magnitude.

    But we’re still just doing what every animal, plant, molecule, element, particle, proto particle are doing: trying to maintain enough energy to persist (exist) before we dissipate back into the quantum background.

    Your soul is your internal chart of accounts of harms(debts) and contributions (credits) and your status is something you face every day in the mirror. It’s very hard to lie to ourselves. And other people often keep very good accounting of us too. With the record of both often written in the expressions on our faces.

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 20:57:30 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633210285115731970

  • UNDERSTANDING PAUL KRUGMAN Jordan (all). After 2008 crash, before choosing to re

    UNDERSTANDING PAUL KRUGMAN
    Jordan (all).
    After 2008 crash, before choosing to reform the law, I briefly considered working on reforming economics now that the evidence of its failure arrived with a vengance. And Paul Krugman was my inspiration for doing so. Now, I don’t want to write something detailed about this, but we can decompose (disambiguate) anyone’s biases and incentives given enough time and information. After studying his work, I realized that explaining the dept of the network of lies he used in every article would require three times the length of the origional. A fact that confirms that the principle problem of refuting desirable lies is far more costly than their production. But without much effort we can reduce his incentives to their first principles. And whether you like it or not, Paul Krugman’s ethic is that of a Jewish cosmopolitan authoritarian socialist elitist, like many of his fellow postwar soviet immigrants to NY, with no small hatred of the European civilization which tolerates him. In reductive form, he is the worst kind of racist, filled with venemous hatred to fuel an undeserving self image, and virtue he doesn’t possess.

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 15:35:37 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633129283836100608

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633120404913913858

  • UNDERSTANDING PAUL KRUGMAN Jordan (all). After 2008 crash, before choosing to re

    UNDERSTANDING PAUL KRUGMAN
    Jordan (all).
    After 2008 crash, before choosing to reform the law, I briefly considered working on reforming economics now that the evidence of its failure arrived with a vengance. And Paul Krugman was my inspiration for doing so. Now, I don’t want to write something detailed about this, but we can decompose (disambiguate) anyone’s biases and incentives given enough time and information. After studying his work, I realized that explaining the dept of the network of lies he used in every article would require three times the length of the origional. A fact that confirms that the principle problem of refuting desirable lies is far more costly than their production. But without much effort we can reduce his incentives to their first principles. And whether you like it or not, Paul Krugman’s ethic is that of a Jewish cosmopolitan authoritarian socialist elitist, like many of his fellow postwar soviet immigrants to NY, with no small hatred of the European civilization which tolerates him. In reductive form, he is the worst kind of racist, filled with venemous hatred to fuel an undeserving self image, and virtue he doesn’t possess.

    Reply addressees: @jordanbpeterson @nytimes @paulkrugman

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 15:35:37 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633129283685081088

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633120404913913858

  • THOUGHTS ON BARRIERS AND LIMITS OF CONSTITUTIONAL AI I’ve worked on this for yea

    THOUGHTS ON BARRIERS AND LIMITS OF CONSTITUTIONAL AI
    I’ve worked on this for years, and didn’t expect language models to cross the barrier to simulated intelligence, because they have no world model (yet) to test the possibility of the langauge they produce.

    As for constituional AI, that problem was rather easy to solve because there is only one rule: recprocity, and reciprocity contains testimony, and testimony contains truthfulness, and truthfulness is testable by falsification of the eight dimensions of sense perception.

    But it should be possible to create a hybrid model against constraints (a consitutution). HOWEVER you still are subject to the problem of what’s ‘polite’ today is UNTRUE. So you cannot create a polite UI that doesn’t lie. And you can’t create a polite UI without teaching it to lie.

    So, that would imply three layers
    – Language in-out (framing)
    – World model (falsification)
    – Constitution (exception handling)
    – Manners (exception prevarication)

    Now assuming you’re going to skip the world model – well, Tesla’s a real world not language model, so Tesla doesn’t skip it, but the language models do. Then you probably can train it to recogize TORT (crimes), but then you’ll have to teach it manners. (Lying)

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-06 17:24:40 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632794338286501895

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632788550503612417

  • THOUGHTS ON BARRIERS AND LIMITS OF CONSTITUTIONAL AI I’ve worked on this for yea

    THOUGHTS ON BARRIERS AND LIMITS OF CONSTITUTIONAL AI
    I’ve worked on this for years, and didn’t expect language models to cross the barrier to simulated intelligence, because they have no world model (yet) to test the possibility of the langauge they produce.

    As for constituional AI, that problem was rather easy to solve because there is only one rule: recprocity, and reciprocity contains testimony, and testimony contains truthfulness, and truthfulness is testable by falsification of the eight dimensions of sense perception.

    But it should be possible to create a hybrid model against constraints (a consitutution). HOWEVER you still are subject to the problem of what’s ‘polite’ today is UNTRUE. So you cannot create a polite UI that doesn’t lie. And you can’t create a polite UI without teaching it to lie.

    So, that would imply three layers
    – Language in-out (framing)
    – World model (falsification)
    – Constitution (exception handling)
    – Manners (exception prevarication)

    Now assuming you’re going to skip the world model – well, Tesla’s a real world not language model, so Tesla doesn’t skip it, but the language models do. Then you probably can train it to recogize TORT (crimes), but then you’ll have to teach it manners. (Lying)

    Reply addressees: @__Maneuver @lainitaylor @deuceofgears @RokoMijic @balajis @bronzeagemantis @thewilbursmith @EclipsePhase @TyrantsMuse @whatifalthist @doomcock @peternlimberg

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-06 17:24:40 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632794338051629063

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632788550503612417

  • I don’t see them as mattering. I see the Marxist, Pomo, Woke Religion, the Jewis

    I don’t see them as mattering. I see the Marxist, Pomo, Woke Religion, the Jewish left in america, the Academy, enterntainment, and media, and worst of all – the vulnerability of white women and especially single white women as the carriers for the marxist-pomo-woke cult they were indoctrinated into in college. So I see it as the need for an Albagentsian Crusade to ‘purify’ our institutino of ‘heritics of the cult of hate’.

    IMO people from alien backgrounds aren’t aware why their traditional myths, histories, religion, law, customs, traditions, manners, ethics, morals, norms, have caused them to fail enough on their own that they would migrate to the west to take advantae of our superior civilization and it’s institutions and culture.

    If they are getting away with the crimes that they have been, even if those crimes are just false assumptions taught by their cultures (judaism, islam, especially, but we went thru this with the Irish and Italians as well) then it’s our job, and our duty, and wer are only capable of, putting in reforms to end their revolt against, and destruction of our culture from within.

    So I blame the man in the mirror. “A lion does not trouble himself with the opinions of sheep” any more than we should trouble ourselves with the cultures and religions of civilizations that have failed so spectacularly by comparison that the very mention of them invokes either pity, or compassion, or hatred and disdain througout all of history.

    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-05 01:46:00 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632195724346552320

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632192805715038209