Theme: Measurement

  • Q&A: CURT, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF PREDICTION MARKETS? —“what do you think of pre

    Q&A: CURT, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF PREDICTION MARKETS?

    —“what do you think of prediction markets?”—

    Unfortunately, this is an incomplete question. 🙂 To have an opinion I must have some outcome (context) to judge them. As an empirical means of obtaining excellent information and overcoming journalistic bias, I think that they are very close to self-insured propositions. And as a Propertarian and Testimonialist, I have nothing but good to say about them as experiments in demonstrating the LACK of quality of the opinions of public intellectuals. (which I think we all know is only useful as a set of propositions to choose between, not as particularly predictive.)

    But it’s possible that your question may intend to ask whether we may institutionalize prediction markets for some particular end. And I’d have to know that end in order to answer it.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-20 09:38:00 UTC

  • MISES – FROM BOETTKE’S PAGE —“Curt Doolittle and Chris Cathcart — I am not s

    MISES – FROM BOETTKE’S PAGE

    —“Curt Doolittle and Chris Cathcart — I am not sure I get your point that [Mises] will never get credit … he already does!”—Peter Boettke

    Well, we all agree that he gets credit for stating that socialism was impossible. The question is whether he did so using justification from axiom, or by analysis of available information, available operations, and rational incentives.

    I don’t think anyone argues that his insight was correct. What I argue is that he, like Freud, Boaz, Cantor, Marx, (Mises), the Frankfurt School and Rothbard, demonstrated the pervasive Cosmopolitan error of creating an authoritarian pseudoscience in justification of his priors, rather than engaging in science for the specific purpose of eliminating error, bias and priors, wishful thinking and deceit from one’s theories.

    All knowledge is theoretical because outside of trivialities and tautologies, no premises are certain. Einstein demonstrated that if we cannot count on a concept such as length or time, that no premise is informationally complete enough to deduce necessary consequences. An axiom is a declarative construction – an analogy to reality, and is informationally complete. But no non trivial statement about reality is informationally complete. It cannot be. (hence critical rationalism and critical preference). Science is not justificationary, it is critical: we do not prove something is true, we see if it survives criticism. And the only test of existentially of any hypothesis is operational construction. As such praxeological analysis tests whether a statement CAN be true. So we cannot deduce all of economics from first premises (particularly the incomplete sentence “man acts”). We can observe (empirically) the unobservable, and then construct the observation out of rational actions to test if it is a truth candidate. But we cannot deduce all candidate operations from first principles – demonstrably so.

    As such correctly positioning Mises in intellectual history as the another failure of the 20th century thinkers to complete the evolution of the scientific method from moral and justificationary to objective and critical.

    This demonstrates that mises was, like Brouwer and Bridgman and Popper, attempting to eliminate the evolution of 19th and 20th century pseudoscience that Hayek warned us was the advent of a new form of mysticism.

    Unfortunately, Bridgman and Brouwer did not understand Popper, Hayek could’t put the fields together because he started with psychology rather than ‘calculability’ and ‘computability’. Mises correctly understood calculation but not computability, nor the relation between computably and subjective human incentives. Mises missed the boat by trying to create an pseudoscience or authoritarian logic to suppress pseudoscientific innumeracy in economics.

    What none of them realized – Popper included – is that the scientific method is a MORAL WARRANTY of due diligence in the elimination of error, bias, wishful thinking and deceit. And that what each of them had done was attempt to prevent the emergent pseudoscience of the Cosmopolitans and Postmodernists that for all intents and purposes functions as the second ‘christianization’ of Europe, this time, by pseudoscientific rather than mystical means.

    And that mises had incorrectly conflated logical necessity with adherence to the necessary morality of voluntary cooperation.

    This is a very profound insight into intellectual history.

    If I wanted to reform Mises I could. But that isn’t necessary. The world has moved on. Instead, the problem we face in our generation is not socialism, but postmodernism and lingering Cosmopolitan pseudoscience and innumeracy in the social sciences. We face pervasive mysticism, pseudoscience, innumeracy, propagandizing, and outright lying in politics and daily life after more than a century of diluting our education in grammar, rhetoric, logic, history and morality.

    Undermining Rothbardian fallacies is just as important as undermining socialist, postmodern, democratic secular humanist, and neo-conservatism.

    And unfortunately to undermine Rothbardian fallacies requires we undermine the fallacies that Rothbard depends upon in his arguments. And to some degree that means doing greater criticism of Mises than we might like.

    A philosopher’s followers can ruin his legacy. His did. There is Precious little Austrian in Mises to start with. He is from Lviv Ukraine, and a Cosmopolitan author in genetics, culture, and method of argument. He is not a scientist. He is attempting to write scriptural law. And he makes consistent errors of conflating law, hermeneutic interpretation in the construction of his insight: it’s not moral or true if it’s not constructible out of rational human actions, and it’s not calculable, moral, and true for human beings to attempt rational planning in the face of state-manufactured deceit. There is very little difference between postmodern propagandism and monetary manipulation. They are both disinformation campaigns designed to alter public behavior to state rather than individual, family, group and tribal ends. So it is not that state interference in the economy cannot be studied in the discipline of economics. It is that doing so studies disinformation, whereas the study of fully informed voluntary cooperation free of error, bias, wishful thinking and deception is the study of moral economics.

    In retrospect it’s not complicated.

    So while I partly agree with you, the damage done by his fallacies to the progress of liberty, and their amplification by rothbard/HHH/MI, have been far more harmful than good. LR at MI tried to use Alinsky’s model of creating propaganda and community. But this battle was above the heads of these people. Whether well intentioned or not.

    Curt Doolittle

    The Propertarian Institute

    Kiev, Ukraine


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-18 04:29:00 UTC

  • NO MISES IS NOT A HERO I love him but he was wrong. He conflates definitions wit

    NO MISES IS NOT A HERO

    I love him but he was wrong. He conflates definitions with demonstrated behavior and this is an example of why he was ostracized for his dogmatic verbalisms.

    His method of investigation, which he calls Austrian but is arguably Ukrainian instead, is reducible to the study of the means of improving the institutions that facilitate the voluntary organization of production by eliminating all possible frictions to economic velocity.

    Whereas the mainstream is reducible to the maximum consumption that can be generated by interfering with the voluntary organization of production without producing the disincentives that would increase frictions sufficiently to produce results counter to the ambition.

    When the differences between misesian and mainstream are one of morality and externality, not definition.

    Mises engaged in fallacies throughout his work. He makes consistent mistakes in the application of aprioristic logic of axiomatic systems to the proximal logic of theoretical systems.

    He discovered operationalism in economics just as Brouwer discovered it in math, and Bridgman in physics, and popper in philosophy.

    But none of them managed to put their efforts together into an innovation in the scientific method and the formal uniting of philosophy and science into a single discipline; and finally retiring moral discourse just as moral discourse retired religious discourse.

    This is perhaps one of the greatest failures of the twentieth century.

    Mises was a little right. But his dogmatism ended both his career and his potential to solve the problem not just if economics but if the social sciences.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-17 09:11:00 UTC

  • PSEUDOSCIENCE REIGNS Sorry, but it doesn’t fly. All costs are opportunity costs.

    https://www.theobjectivestandard.com/2014/10/causes-war-peace/ OBJECTIVIST PSEUDOSCIENCE REIGNS Sorry, but it doesn’t fly. All costs are opportunity costs. We can look at each war, and say, the accumulated effect of containing world communism, and estimate thh difference in costs. But the assumption that our condition would be equal or better than that of today is very hard to imagine. Objectivism is merely eastern european ashkenazi border-region philosophy. The reason the ashkenazi do not have eastern europe as a homeland, and the reason they did not hold israel as a homeland, and the reason they are losing israel as a homeland, is the same: they are unwilling to pay the high costs of territorial defense. If you want to live as a migratory pastoralist, or unlanded trader, you are welcome to. But you will be at the mercy of the warriors who give you permission. And you will never be, and can never be, free. Because liberty is not a matter of permission it is a matter of power.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-16 11:36:00 UTC

  • WHY IS GOLD VALUABLE? There are many scarce things that are not valuable, and th

    WHY IS GOLD VALUABLE?

    There are many scarce things that are not valuable, and there are many non-scarce things (diamonds) that are valuable. The plague is rare, and it is not valuable. Meteoric iron is scarce, not very pretty, and too scarce to be used as money. If scarcity were enough, then meteoric iron would be more valuable as currency than gold. But it isn’t, because not enough people want meteoric iron’s utility in tool making as want gold’s utility in signaling.

    Gold is valuable because:

    a) it is scarce enough that it takes great effort to mine and cast, and therefore hard to alter the market price by supply fluctuations, and even holds its value across centuries, but it’s not too scarce to cause frequent monetary shortages – and silver is a substitute when there are monetary shortages.

    b) It’s divisible easily in to smaller units – a necessary property of money.

    c) each of the units is small enough and valuable enough that one need not carry wagon loads for commercial purposes.

    d) It’s identifiable as what it is (unlike paper money) its very hard to counterfeit. It’s consistent in weight and heavy enough that simple tools can be used to measure it’s consistency.

    e) It is an excellent store of value because it does not tarnish or rust.

    f) It’s pretty – it can be worked and reworked, formed and reformed at low temperature, and it’s useful as a means of decoration and jewelry so it can be used to signal status, and that does not deteriorate – even across generations. It is the most malleable material and so a very small amount of it can be hammered out and used in foil to give the illusion of even greater wealth.

    g) and because it’s a status symbol as well as durable, identifiable, and optimally scarce, then EVERYONE recognizes it and everyone wants it. And that universality is what makes a good currency.

    In other words it’s identifiable, durable and desirable and transformable, as well as scarce enough to hold a stable market price, but not so scarce that it cannot be used as money.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-15 15:52:00 UTC

  • INFORMATION changes STATE, and DATA does not. Data (observation), Information (h

    INFORMATION changes STATE, and DATA does not.

    Data (observation), Information (hypothesis), knowledge (theory), wisdom(law)


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-15 08:11:00 UTC

  • “tries to show how recursive and constructive mathematics could be employed to e

    “tries to show how recursive and constructive mathematics could be employed to economic problems;” Bingo.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-13 09:42:20 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/642996727600009216

    Reply addressees: @SanguineEmpiric

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/642982818268606468


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

    Original tweet unavailable — we could not load the text of the post this reply is addressing on X. That usually means the tweet was deleted, the account is protected, or X does not expose it to the account used for archiving. The Original post link below may still open if you view it in X while signed in.

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/642982818268606468

  • A FRIEND: RECURSIVE COMPUTABLE MATHEMATICS IN ECONOMICS!!!!! Now, before anyone

    http://www.amazon.com/Computable-Foundations-Economics-Routledge-Experimental-ebook/dp/B008SA2EC6/ref=mt_kindle?_encoding=UTF8&meFROM A FRIEND: RECURSIVE COMPUTABLE MATHEMATICS IN ECONOMICS!!!!!

    Now, before anyone throws silly arguments at me, in testimonialism I argue that all hypothesis is performed by free association, and that operational (computational, recursive, intuitionistic) construction is a test of existential possibility (the reduction of error.) Critical rationalists do not make justificationary truth claims, we make moral claims of due diligence – countering the long standing error which conflates truth and testimony. A Testimonialist will make a claim of TRUTHFULNESS: that he has passed all possible means of criticism, and his theory or description survives that criticism.

    In propertarianism, (as well as praxeology reformed), the application of construction to economics is a moral one: that unless every transfer is constructed from productive, fully informed, warrantied, voluntary transfer free of externality of the same criteria, that we are measuring THE ECONOMICS OF THEFT AND LYING rather than ECONOMICS OF COOPERATION.

    I have not read this work yet ( I have no american credit cards right now and can’t buy it from Amazon. But I’ll get to it shortly.)


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-13 05:51:00 UTC

  • (f) Voluntary exchange is the only means of ‘calculating’ across all three biase

    (f) Voluntary exchange is the only means of ‘calculating’ across all three biases.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-08-31 11:54:19 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/638318898480312320

    Reply addressees: @johann_theron @Outsideness @amerika_blog @AlbertBrenner1

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/638273501913333760


    IN REPLY TO:

    @johann_theron

    The cause of SJW behaviour? @Outsideness @amerika_blog @curtdoolittle @AlbertBrenner1 http://t.co/wmxwizk6EY

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/638273501913333760

  • On Measured IQ vs Demonstrated Intelligence

    http://iqpersonalitygenius.blogspot.com/…/do-you-really-und…

    [B]ruce,

    Demonstrated intelligence is a subject I work quite hard on so I think I might try to change your mind a bit, by at the very least giving you a different framework and language for approaching it.

    DEMONSTRATED INTELLIGENCE

    I think I understand the difference between DEMONSTRATED intelligence, and the aggregate and commensurable MEASURE of our various intelligences, as well as anyone else. The reason being that it’s not very difficult to understand: the aggregation of the verbal(experiential)-spatial(temporal) measures is so predictive of life achievement that all other measures are all but insignificant.

    So for the purposes that we use these measures (the cost of training the individual increasingly abstractly-perceptible skills) they are possibly as good a measure as we we are ever to get, and likely more precise than is relevant. It may in fact be better to reduce IQ to standard deviation from the magic ‘cliff’ of 106, where we begin to be able to articulate ideas and repair machines, since at every six to seven points, individuals display perceptible differences in ability and greater resolution in that measure is just noise. At every fifteen they display substantial differences in abilities allowing them access to different occupations, and at every 30 points of difference individuals begin to have difficulty communicating with on another in similar terms.

    PERSONALITY AND MORALITY

    We also understand a great deal about variations in personality and moral instinct.

    The research into the evolutionary origins of our moral intuitions (versus our learned norms) has progressed rapidly thanks to the conversion of the discipline of philosophy from a subjective pseudoscience measured against an ideal norm (freud), to an operationalist (observable) science measured against the requirements of evolutionary biology.

    For the same reason our understanding of personality is shifting greatly. And while the five factor analysis is highly predictive given it’s (pseudoscientific authoritarian feminist freudian) origins, the term ‘neurotic’ should probably be homogenized with the sciences as ‘impulsivity’, the Autistic-Solipsistic spectrum, verbal IQ and Spatial IQ and Gender should be added to those measures. And the remaining four should be reframed as reproductive strategies.

    The current error in personality analysis is the attempt to separate out empathy as a separate form of intelligence, rather than describe the influence that the feminine/solipsistic<–empathic–>autistic/masculine spectrum imposes upon verbal and spatial intelligence.

    If done, then morality and personality, gender and reproductive strategy would be rendered commensurable. (The unfortunate long term impact of Cantorian, Marxist, Misesian, Boazian and Freudian pseudoscience remains with us and prevents us from unifying what appear to be different fields of inquiry, but that are identical if we reduce them to first principles: genetic expression of our evolutionary biology – a record of our evolution of the intuitions of cooperation which perform in an uncomfortable equilibrium with our self interest: reproductive strategy.

    There is a reason the socialists suppressed darwin as heavily as the fundamentalists.) As an aside, we also know what properties make an individual desirable and undesirable as a mate (symmetry, skin, height, etc). And if we were to roughly measure those every seven years we would find that reproductive desirability, personality, cognitive abilities, morality, reproductive strategy would remain in parallel except at the margins. But this borders on ‘too much information’ since few of us want to face such facts.

    REGARDING HIGH DEMONSTRATED INTELLIGENCE WITHOUT HIGH IQ SCORE

    1) —“a person may be of high intelligence and not have a high IQ score”—

    Hmmm…, a person may DEMONSTRATE more intelligent thinking and action than someone with a higher IQ. This is true. But it does not tell us why he demonstrates it. Even though the reason WHY is quite simple: Demonstrated intelligence is largely a factor of general knowledge of the subject and its application with limited error. While IQ is determined only by the rate of pattern recognition. Now it so happens that people who recognize patterns more rapidly tend to make fewer errors, and to accumulate new information with less error.

    But say, if one has a high incidence of impulsivity (Neuroticism) this will not be the case. His energies (and time) will be spent in justifications of his impulses, not in acquisitions of useful information). So, for example, Dr Higgs (of the higgs-boson particle) has argued that he would not obtain a professorship today because he works slowly and is unproductive. This does not prohibit him from genius. It merely means that he is disciplined and methodical. (I am of the same temperament, I would never find a dissertation committee that would tolerate my rate of production which like Spinoza will have taken many many years on a very risky hypothesis.)

    In fact, most Nobel Prize winners are not actually of exceptional intelligence (merely in the 140’s) – which seems to indicate that the value of IQ declines in utility at some point (all measurements are questionable above 140 really). If for no other reason than it is difficult to find people to work with and communicate with, but most likely because somewhere above that range, the improvement is caused by a corresponding limitation.

    Demonstrated intelligence consists of the following criteria:
    i) IQ (rate of pattern recognition)
    ii) Short term memory (necessary for mathematicians and chess players)
    iii) General knowledge (reading a lot on a lot of subjects generally makes you smarter)
    iv) Method of inquiry consisting of inputs ( allegory, parable, history, measurement) and methods ( free association, mysticism, reason, rationalism(justification), science(criticism).
    v) Wants: Impossible Wants, Impossible Beliefs, Metaphysical Errors, and Erroneous Assumptions
    vi) Lack of impulsivity: Discipline, and Time (great ideas are achieved by focused work over very long periods – often approaching a decade or more)

    The greater evolutionary problem appears to be that exceptional intelligence is genetically caused by possessing fewer negative alleles rather than any special allele. Just as evolution is a process of surviving. Just as epistemology is a process of eliminating error from free associations leaving only truth candidates.

    Most of the time, and we can go through almost every thinker in history, great or small, the reason for failure is not intelligence or short term memory, or even impulsivity, but impulsivity, wants, and method. It is rarely intelligence. The failure of intelligence is one in which we observe that the individual does not identify patterns extant in the knowledge available. We do not fault Aristote for his failed innovations. We fault marx for continuing to take money from Engels once he had discovered that the marginalists and proved him wrong, and that all his work and fame was fallacy. He stopped writing. Did nothing. Continued taking his income from Engels until he died. A simple ‘capitalist’ motivation kept him from admitting his errors.

    SUMMARY

    So I think that we understand demonstrated intelligence enough to say that one can demonstrate intelligence in any sphere in which one can master the subject matter, apply scientific reasoning (criticism), insulate one’s study and practice from error, bias, wishful thinking, and deceit (including self deception), and spend sufficient time on the subject that others cannot.

    Some of us cannot even master ourselves. Some of us can barely master simple duties. Some of us can do it only through imitation of others. Some of us can do it only with experiential subjects. Some of us can do it with abstract subjects. Some of us can do it with purely theoretical subjects. And some of us can do MANY OF THESE AT ONCE. In fact, Polymathy and theoretical polymathy are probably the best test of demonstrated intelligence because polymathy demonstrates both rate of acquisition AND limited error in acquisition, and theoretical polymathy demonstrates that the individual can add a original insight (Hayek says he had two) to human knowledge.

    SOME NITS : ‘SCIENTIFIC THINKING’

    2) –“…on the nature of scientific thinking as it should be..” —

    This paragraph is reducible to the statement: demonstrable intelligence requires the construction of a model that corresponds to the extant reality, and survives attempts to falsify it.

    What you don’t mention, and which will conflict with your own mode of inquiry, is that such scientific thinking requires that the model be sufficiently complete that one need not appeal to introspection for the evaluation of results. This is where I generally see you get into trouble with your own work. Any model that requires introspection rather than correspondence by definition lacks sufficient information and means of decidability such that one can claim one’s observation or testimony to be free of error, bias, wishful thinking and deceit.

    Now, if by some chance your intuition corresponds to reality (and in many cases yours does) then this correspondence can be used to provide comfort to your priors, but may cause you error in bias in matters wherein you rely upon introspection rather than correspondence independent of introspection (decidability).

    (But I am struck with the question of why you feel the need to retain your expertise in introspection? Why do you seek to justify it? When we know that this introspection merely results in confirmation bias?)

    Man: need to persist. need to acquire, need to cooperate as a disproportionately rewarding means of acquisition. need to reproduce. need to cooperate as a disproportionately rewarding means of reproduction. need to defend kin. need to cooperate as a disproportionately rewarding means of defending kin. need to produce cooperate to produce common assets since cooperation on commons is disproportionately rewarding compared to individual production. To act one must engage in perception, intuition, awareness, searching, reasoning, remembering, deciding, acting. But all that complexity is reducible to we must act to acquire, and cooperation that is non-parasitic (imposes no costs on others) is disproportionately productive.

    NIT: THE MEANING OF ‘UNDERSTANDING’ (Avoiding crutches)

    3) –“understanding is not quantitative but qualitative” —

    This statement demonstrates confusion between means of measurement rather than epistemological differences.

    Understanding : general rules or general principles (of arbitrary precision) one uses for categorization, properties, methods and relations for some subsequent action – even if that subsequent action is merely consequent understanding.

    Qualitative relations: the ability to stack relative to one another even if we cannot articulate the reason for stacking, and even if stacking is merely a preference.

    And

    Quantitative Measurements: the ability to define relations against a constant. These two forms of measurement serve two purposes. That is all.

    So when you say ‘understanding’ you mean that any rule of general utility must be constructed with arbitrary precision equal to the context of application. (That’s a mouthful, I know. So we need examples.)

    For example, I understand how to bake, but I bake a cake and bread differently by using recipes. Baking is a level of precision useful only for communication with others, while a recipe is necessary for the baking of a cake or bread. But, yet, it is not necessary that I understand the chemical transitions that occur during the process of preparation and baking and cooling in order for me to bake a cake.

    So while in casual conversation we may use these terms loosely: baking, baking a cake, and the chemical transformations that occur through the combination of substances and the application of heat; each of these is a level of precision, just like predicting the trajectory of a ball you throw by commons intuition, firing a projectile using newtonian physics, or explaining the evolution of the universe using quantum mechanics – if we wish to reason from them, we must use that level of precision that we need for such reasoning – else we are just making excuses and calling them reasons: justification.

    So ‘understanding’ requires general rules that help us evaluate explore and hypothesize within some useful context (arbitrary precision), not recipes that allow us to construct individual instances, nor too general to allow us to decide between actions in that context.

    I understand the basics of carpentry but I am not capable of deducing the construction of a modern home from that. Most economists specialize in some field of inquiry but since the rules of economic specialties are interesting for their counter-intuitiveness, economists cannot generalize – which is why large groups of economists are non-predictive: at any given point only a few people possess the specialized knowledge to understand a current model. Meaning that the Dunning Kruger Effect is always with us – maybe more so for smart people.

    CLOSING

    I follow you. Don’t comment often. I like the Christian loading. Not crazy about method of doing it. I tend to just get to the central proposition of Christianity: extension of kinship love to non-kin as a means of increasing trust, increasing the velocity of cooperation, economic velocity, rate of innovation, and prosperity. We will never have a restoration without another dark age.  So we must take from christianity the truth, and launder the error, bias, wishful thinking and (rather plentiful) deception from it.

    Love, Truth, and Commons, are Enough.

    Curt Doolittle
    The Philosophy of Aristocracy
    The Propertarian Institute
    Kiev, Ukraine