Theme: Measurement

  • EMPIRICAL CEO ADVICE 2: Never regret doing your best if you exhausted all possib

    EMPIRICAL CEO ADVICE 2:

    Never regret doing your best if you exhausted all possible sources of information. Most of the time, the worst that happens is you learn something. But if you do not exhaust all sources of information, and you ask people to trust your judgement then the worst does happen: people lose trust in you. The best way to preserve your trust is to involve others in the decision process and to exhaust all possible sources of information. If you fail, the group will preserve their trust in you – if only because they shared in trying to solve the problem. Most of the time if you try to take a discount on risk and effort it is by not exhausting all sources of information. There are no discounts on diligence.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-10-12 13:41:00 UTC

  • Thanks to everyone who is yet again reminding me how great an intellectual leap

    Thanks to everyone who is yet again reminding me how great an intellectual leap it is to transform one’s frame of reference from justificationism and meaning: the tools of imagining, learning and hypothesizing – to criticism and truth: the tools of eliminating error, bias, wishful thinking, and deception from our thoughts and words.

    The Critical Rationalists agonize over the severity of this issue in public life. They use it as an example of how politicians deceive the populace. And while I criticize Critical Rationalists for their cognitive blindness (their half-truths), in caring only about the ability to think creatively (intellectual liberty) rather than including the consequence of their philosophy: thinking prohibitively (moral and legal constraint), we are both frustrated by this problem.

    It is hard. It is very hard to see the continuum from free association, to hypothesis to criticism, to truth candidate, to tautology. It is very hard to grasp when you are still engaged in ‘learning’, that you are largely engaged in justificationism. And, perhaps one needs a critical mass of knowledge before he can begin to see the world critically.

    But while it’s hard it’s still possible.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-10-08 16:12:00 UTC

  • BARTER (economics) – The direct trading of goods and services without the use of

    BARTER (economics) – The direct trading of goods and services without the use of an intermediary medium of exchange that produces prices rendering goods and services commensurable.

    MONEY (economics) – a medium of exchange, having the following properties:

    -Properties-

    Having the properties:

    1) universal market demand – as medium of exchange

    2) non-fungible unitary weight and measure – capable of creating commensurability and as a consequence prices.

    3) non-perishable – store of value (and retaining a stable price over time)

    4) portability (high exchange value relative to weight and volume)

    -Forms-

    Existing in the forms:

    Non-perishable (durable)

    1) commodity measure money(weight or volume – insured by market)

    2) commodity money(in fixed units, weighed and measured: insured by stamp)

    3) token money (commodity money substitute, an artificial commodity not redeemable), (??? not sure I should include this form of money substitute.

    Perishable (fragile)

    4) note-money(debt money – redeemably backed – dependent upon issuer ),

    6) credit money(debt money – partly-backed promises – dependent upon issuer),

    5) political share-money(credit money, unbacked, not redeemable – dependent upon issuer).

    7) electronic credit money (promises – wholly dependent upon issuer)


    Source date (UTC): 2015-10-07 03:44:00 UTC

  • OVERSING UPDATE The problem with the Slack (and IRC) UI is that channels do not

    OVERSING UPDATE

    The problem with the Slack (and IRC) UI is that channels do not provide sufficient context for the development of metrics about a subject or context, whereas the facebook page-model does.

    Oversing allows you to create public (# hashtag) channels, fb/VK style chats, and private channels (filters of your activity stream), but Oversing retains context at all times – you are always collaborating in some context or other.

    Our search will be a little weaker for the first version due only to resource constraints. But once we implement better search, we will provide both the ease of public channels and the insight into subjects by context.

    It’s an interesting merger. We struggled with the UI a bit. But we’re pretty happy with it now.

    Just a few things are left for beta. (a) reports, (b) Peer360 and (c) some usability issues we feel we need to fix to make it easier on the user. Some of the usability issues we know about are:

    (a) allowing choices (buttons) to apply to multiple objects on the workflow, so the user needn’t duplicate them. (b) reducing the tasks panel options by adding multi-selection and moving the resourcing filters to the top of the panel. (c) adding the subtasks page to the Program profile. (d) creating personal projects for each new user by default. (e) and making it easier to know whether you can schedule something or not.

    Oversing is a little bit “all things to everyone”, in that we made sure that there were many ways of working with the product depending upon the complexity of the needs of the user, and the power of his device. The side effect is that we need to instruct users in the use of the product in increasing levels of complexity.

    I think it’s one of those products that you continually ‘discover’ functionality over a long period of time.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-10-02 08:58:00 UTC

  • AUSTRALIAN BANKS CUT BITCOIN Bitcoin. Told ya. Not money. Divisible shares of st

    AUSTRALIAN BANKS CUT BITCOIN

    Bitcoin. Told ya. Not money. Divisible shares of stock.

    Example of why operational names not analogies matter. Behaviour is demonstrated not conveyed by meaning.

    My position was that it wasn’t money. And that it was fraudulent to call it money. Even if in error.

    Great technology – except for its not insured by anyone. If insured by a government, or by banks or as means of transfer, it’s innovative.

    But basically it cuts out any value if insuring the transaction to the insurer. So it produces negative incentives.

    I said the state would break it. And that’s what I see happening.

    In retrospect it was caused by t technological failure to create interfaces and applications usable enough for common people to adopt.

    Payment by phone is the future and the only store of value is a commodity. Preferably money. Real money. Commodity money.

    Shares only retain value as long as owners have faith in the persistence of the company they hold shares in.

    I’ve been writing a piece on money to correct mises’ categories.

    Guess I should finish it.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-10-01 13:33:00 UTC

  • DEFENSIVENESS OF AN ECONOMIC RESEARCHER —“I’m not trying to insult you, it jus

    DEFENSIVENESS OF AN ECONOMIC RESEARCHER

    —“I’m not trying to insult you, it just seems like you’re trying to make blanket statements about the research methodologies of a discipline you’ve never worked in. I’d be interested in reading what you’ve published. I tried looking you up on EconLit, but it didn’t have any publications listed. I also searched for you on JSTOR and a couple of other databases with philosophy of science journals to no avail.”—

    I don’t think you’re trying to insult me, I think you’re acting defensively to a categorization of economic inquiry into political or cognitive biases rather than intentions to produce a neutral point of view.

    We all fight different battles. That’s the work of intellectuals.

    Your argument amounts to this: that study of the literature produced in order to determine bias within it, is somehow the same as practicing the investigation itself. And that practicing the art of philosophy (truth telling) is equivalent to the practice of identifying correlations in attempts to explain causes in a particular field.

    This is the same as saying that the study of economic data provides no insight into disparate industries and regions.

    The second error you’re falling into is to assume that the same methods cannot be employed in the service of reproductive, cognitive, political, or group evolutionary strategies from nothing more than selection bias.

    The third error is that economics is one of the fields in which niche knowledge is not generalizable. In other words, the reason for the differences in surveys of economists on any given issue is that only the niche specialists in that issue have sufficient knowledge to respond. Why? because the reason we require economic analysis is that it’s counter-intuitive. So broad surveys of economists are generally less accurate that random polls of the population.

    So it does not matter what methods are employed. It matters that individuals employing those methods possess biases that are expressed in their work, and that their opinions derived from their niche work are not generalizable outside of that niche.

    I have for example, criticized mathematicians on the externalities produced by the false implications of their methods. But a mathematician does not consider externalities born of a verbal contrivance to be his responsibility. I can ask whether you think that is a question of economics or not.

    But a very sophisticated mathematician will tell you the reality: that truth is not a matter for mathematicians – proof is. Truth is a matter for philosophers. Even that man will be uncomfortable with the notion that there exists no ‘mathematical reality’ any more than there exists a heaven, hell, or Camelot. Or that his use of ‘infinities of different sizes’ is nonsense analogy that has had external consequences.

    I am not alone in my categorization of the ongoing battle between the leftists (Krugman/Delong), and the conservatives (Mankiw), and my posting is intended to provide a counter position to Krugman’s ‘dishonesty’ which Mankiw and others tend to point out regularly, and which cost Krugman his job.

    The current debate over “Mathiness” in economics is in fact, caused by the properties I mention above: what are they solving for? This is not a question of innumeracy or error but one of seeking different ends.

    But, academic economics fails to grasp that each field solves for something different by similar means. So it is not that Chicago errs, but that they attempt to define rules. It is not that Saltwaters err but they seek to define discretion that the public and industry find objectionable uses of power, which result in immoral ends. It is not that the politicians do not understand economics. It is that the public will not tolerate immorality. And it is not that the public is wrong to be intolerant of redistribution that produces measurable short and mid term gains at the expense of kith and kin.

    So, either criticize the central argument or state that you cant. That’s the practice of science. 😉

    That argument is that regardless of intentions and methods, the pattern of the research is yet another expression of reproductive strategy of the actor, rather than of a neutral point of view.

    Cheers. 🙂


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-27 17:57:00 UTC

  • Mises Gets Credit – for both his insights and his failings.

    —“Curt Doolittle and Chris Cathcart — I am not sure I get your point that [Mises] will never get credit … he already does!”—Peter Boettke

    [W]ell, we all agree that he gets credit for stating that socialism was impossible. The question is whether he did so using justification from axiom, or by analysis of available information, available operations, and rational incentives. I don’t think anyone argues that his insight was correct. What I argue is that he, like Freud, Boaz, Cantor, Marx, (Mises), the Frankfurt School and Rothbard, demonstrated the pervasive Cosmopolitan error of creating an authoritarian pseudoscience in justification of his priors, rather than engaging in science for the specific purpose of eliminating error, bias and priors, wishful thinking and deceit from one’s theories. All knowledge is theoretical because outside of trivialities and tautologies, no premises are certain. Einstein demonstrated that if we cannot count on a concept such as length or time, that no premise is informationally complete enough to deduce necessary consequences. An axiom is a declarative construction – an analogy to reality, and is informationally complete. But no non trivial statement about reality is informationally complete. It cannot be. (hence critical rationalism and critical preference). Science is not justificationary, it is critical: we do not prove something is true, we see if it survives criticism. And the only test of existentially of any hypothesis is operational construction. As such praxeological analysis tests whether a statement CAN be true. So we cannot deduce all of economics from first premises (particularly the incomplete sentence “man acts”). We can observe (empirically) the unobservable, and then construct the observation out of rational actions to test if it is a truth candidate. But we cannot deduce all candidate operations from first principles – demonstrably so. As such correctly positioning Mises in intellectual history as the another failure of the 20th century thinkers to complete the evolution of the scientific method from moral and justificationary to objective and critical. This demonstrates that mises was, like Brouwer and Bridgman and Popper, attempting to eliminate the evolution of 19th and 20th century pseudoscience that Hayek warned us was the advent of a new form of mysticism. Unfortunately, Bridgman and Brouwer did not understand Popper, Hayek could’t put the fields together because he started with psychology rather than ‘calculability’ and ‘computability’. Mises correctly understood calculation but not computability, nor the relation between computably and subjective human incentives. Mises missed the boat by trying to create an pseudoscience or authoritarian logic to suppress pseudoscientific innumeracy in economics. What none of them realized – Popper included – is that the scientific method is a MORAL WARRANTY of due diligence in the elimination of error, bias, wishful thinking and deceit. And that what each of them had done was attempt to prevent the emergent pseudoscience of the Cosmopolitans and Postmodernists that for all intents and purposes functions as the second ‘christianization’ of Europe, this time, by pseudoscientific rather than mystical means. And that mises had incorrectly conflated logical necessity with adherence to the necessary morality of voluntary cooperation. This is a very profound insight into intellectual history. If I wanted to reform Mises I could. But that isn’t necessary. The world has moved on. Instead, the problem we face in our generation is not socialism, but postmodernism and lingering Cosmopolitan pseudoscience and innumeracy in the social sciences. We face pervasive mysticism, pseudoscience, innumeracy, propagandizing, and outright lying in politics and daily life after more than a century of diluting our education in grammar, rhetoric, logic, history and morality. Undermining Rothbardian fallacies is just as important as undermining socialist, postmodern, democratic secular humanist, and neo-conservatism. And unfortunately to undermine Rothbardian fallacies requires we undermine the fallacies that Rothbard depends upon in his arguments. And to some degree that means doing greater criticism of Mises than we might like. A philosopher’s followers can ruin his legacy. His did. There is Precious little Austrian in Mises to start with. He is from Lviv Ukraine, and a Cosmopolitan author in genetics, culture, and method of argument. He is not a scientist. He is attempting to write scriptural law. And he makes consistent errors of conflating law, hermeneutic interpretation in the construction of his insight: it’s not moral or true if it’s not constructible out of rational human actions, and it’s not calculable, moral, and true for human beings to attempt rational planning in the face of state-manufactured deceit. There is very little difference between postmodern propagandism and monetary manipulation. They are both disinformation campaigns designed to alter public behavior to state rather than individual, family, group and tribal ends. So it is not that state interference in the economy cannot be studied in the discipline of economics. It is that doing so studies disinformation, whereas the study of fully informed voluntary cooperation free of error, bias, wishful thinking and deception is the study of moral economics. In retrospect it’s not complicated. So while I partly agree with you, the damage done by his fallacies to the progress of liberty, and their amplification by rothbard/HHH/MI, have been far more harmful than good. LR at MI tried to use Alinsky’s model of creating propaganda and community. But this battle was above the heads of these people. Whether well intentioned or not. Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev, Ukraine

  • No, Mises is Not a Hero. (Not that he wasn’t pretty good)

    [I] love him but he was wrong. He conflates definitions with demonstrated behavior and this is an example of why he was ostracized for his dogmatic verbalisms. His method of investigation, which he calls Austrian but is arguably Ukrainian instead, is reducible to the study of the means of improving the institutions that facilitate the voluntary organization of production by eliminating all possible frictions to economic velocity. Whereas the mainstream is reducible to the maximum consumption that can be generated by interfering with the voluntary organization of production without producing the disincentives that would increase frictions sufficiently to produce results counter to the ambition. When the differences between misesian and mainstream are one of morality and externality, not definition. Mises engaged in fallacies throughout his work. He makes consistent mistakes in the application of aprioristic logic of axiomatic systems to the proximal logic of theoretical systems. He discovered operationalism in economics just as Brouwer discovered it in math, and Bridgman in physics, and popper in philosophy. But none of them managed to put their efforts together into an innovation in the scientific method and the formal uniting of philosophy and science into a single discipline; and finally retiring moral discourse just as moral discourse retired religious discourse. This is perhaps one of the greatest failures of the twentieth century. Mises was a little right. But his dogmatism ended both his career and his potential to solve the problem not just if economics but if the social sciences.

  • No, Mises is Not a Hero. (Not that he wasn’t pretty good)

    [I] love him but he was wrong. He conflates definitions with demonstrated behavior and this is an example of why he was ostracized for his dogmatic verbalisms. His method of investigation, which he calls Austrian but is arguably Ukrainian instead, is reducible to the study of the means of improving the institutions that facilitate the voluntary organization of production by eliminating all possible frictions to economic velocity. Whereas the mainstream is reducible to the maximum consumption that can be generated by interfering with the voluntary organization of production without producing the disincentives that would increase frictions sufficiently to produce results counter to the ambition. When the differences between misesian and mainstream are one of morality and externality, not definition. Mises engaged in fallacies throughout his work. He makes consistent mistakes in the application of aprioristic logic of axiomatic systems to the proximal logic of theoretical systems. He discovered operationalism in economics just as Brouwer discovered it in math, and Bridgman in physics, and popper in philosophy. But none of them managed to put their efforts together into an innovation in the scientific method and the formal uniting of philosophy and science into a single discipline; and finally retiring moral discourse just as moral discourse retired religious discourse. This is perhaps one of the greatest failures of the twentieth century. Mises was a little right. But his dogmatism ended both his career and his potential to solve the problem not just if economics but if the social sciences.

  • SHORT COURSE IN PROPERTARIAN REASONING (introduction to propertarianism) Note: t

    http://www.propertarianism.com/ideas/the-propertarian-methodology/A SHORT COURSE IN PROPERTARIAN REASONING

    (introduction to propertarianism)

    Note: this is a sketch of propertarian reasoning I’ve put together to satisfy some of your requests. If you follow me you will recognize the technique as the application of the scientific method and amoral economic language to questions of social science.

    PRINCIPLES

    1) Everyone acts to acquire. Life is an expensive means of defeating entropy. Acting improves acquisition – at additional cost. Memory improves acquisition – at additional cost. reason improves acquisition – at additional cost. cooperation improves acquisition – at additional cost.

    2) We act in furtherance of our reproductive strategy.

    3) Male and Female reproductive strategies are in conflict. The female seeks to breed impulsively where it benefits her lineage, and then force the cost of her offspring on the tribe, and to further her offspring regardless of merit. The male seeks to breed impulsively wherever it does not harm his lineage, and to create a tribe capable of resisting conquest by other males – and as such males act meritocratic-ally. Men are political and divided into kin and non-kin – the universe is male. For women, men are marginally indifferent herdsmen of women. Women live in a world of women, and both men and the universe are alien.

    4) Humans compete for status because status provides discounts on opportunities to acquire – especially mates and allies in cooperation. We can identify at least three horizontal axis of class division: biological (reproductive desirability), social (status desirability), economic (wealth desirability) – as well as their undesirable opposites.

    5) There exist only three means of coercing other humans to cooperate with on one means or end vs cooperate with others on different means or ends. These three means of coercion can be used to construct three vertical axis of class specialization: coercion by force(conservatism/masculine), coercion by gossip(progressivism/feminine), coercion by remuneration (libertarianism / neutral masculine). Human elites are formed by those who specialize in one or more of these means of coercion. (gossip: public intellectuals and priests. force: military and political. exchange: voluntary organizations, including the voluntary organization of production.

    6) Language is purely justificationary negotiation in furtherance of our acquisition by these three means. ergo: All ‘belief’ is justification to the self and others in furtherance of acquisition. It is meaningless. Statements of justification only provide us with information necessary to deduce what it is that we wish to acquire.

    7) Cooperation is a disproportionately more productive means of acquisition than individual production.

    8) We seek discounts in our acquisitions. Some of these discounts are productive and moral and encourage cooperation, and some of them are unproductive and immoral, discourage cooperation, and invite retaliation.

    9) The only moral acquisition is one in which one either homesteads something new, or obtains it by productive, fully informed, warrantied, voluntary exchange, where external transfers are limited to the same criteria.

    10) Aristotle’s ‘golden mean’ is an inarticulate primitive expression of the supply-demand curve. All human acquisition takes place within the pressures of supply and demand. As such all explanations of human action must be produced using supply and demand curves: the golden mean.

    11) All human considerations and consequent actions take place in high causal density, choices determined by means of opportunity costs, and any analysis requires we show the choices that an individual or group is considering. (Full Accounting).

    12) We cooperate and coerce in large numbers, as classes with common reproductive interests to using narratives at every scale. Science and moral law are the only means of resolving conflicts between these narratives. Propertarian analysis provides means of amoral analysis, argument and decidability between these loaded, framed, and obscured arguments.

    13) Groups evolve evolutionary strategies and supporting narratives. While none of these strategies by any given group is fully moral, it is still true that we can compare strategies as more and less objectively moral. We can measure the differences in objective morality by the degree of suppression of free riding in that given society.

    14) In all political matters ultimate decidability is provided by a bias to suicidal, proletarian and dysgenic, or competitive, aristocratic and eugenic reproduction. The myth of equality (the christian mythos) was let loose by the middle class takeover of the aristocratic governments, and the eventual enfranchisement of women whose reproductive strategy under industrial production is dysgenic – reversing 7,000 years of indo european genetic pacification (eugneic evolution). This is a very unpleasant and impolitic topic. But it is where we find decidability.

    LIST OF PROPERTY-EN-TOTO: THAT WHICH WE ACT TO AQUIRE (DEMONSTRATED PROPERTY)

    http://www.propertarianism.com/demonstrated-property/

    THE SIMPLE METHOD: INCENTIVES AS ACQUSITION

    1) take any circumstance in which someone is attempting to persuade someone else.

    2) identify the reproductive strategy of the speaker (largely by gender, class, and coercive technique.)

    3) identify the property-en-toto that the speaker is attempting to acquire.

    4) determine if his or her method is advocating a moral transfer(productive) or an immoral transfer (parasitism).

    5) Determine which discounts (thefts) he or she is attempting to engage in, or which premiums (payments) he or she is offering in exchange.

    6) State the user’s request in amoral propertarian terms free of loading, framing, or overloading. In other words, make a purely logical argument free of sentimental loading.

    ADVANCED: AN EXAMPLE OF EMPLOYING THE PROPERTARIAN METHOD ON ADVANCED CONCEPTS

    http://www.propertarianism.com/ideas/the-propertarian-methodology/

    This example addresses the term ‘evil’ in propertarian terms, and provides an example of how highly loaded terms from antiquity can be converted into scientific (propertarian) terms.

    TERMINOLOGY

    Demonstrated Property / Property en Toto

    Exchange / Transfer / Voluntary Transfer / Involuntary Transfer

    Parasitism / Free Riding / Imposed Costs

    Productive / Unproductive

    Fully Informed / Asymmetric Information

    Warrantied / Un-warrantied

    Discount / Premium

    Coercion / Influence

    Voluntary Organization of Production

    Incremental Suppression of free riding

    Truth / Truthfulness / Honesty

    Moral / Amoral / Immoral

    Morality / Cooperation / Retaliation


    Source date (UTC): 2015-09-24 06:49:00 UTC