Q&A: CURT, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF PREDICTION MARKETS? —“what do you think of pre

Q&A: CURT, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF PREDICTION MARKETS?

—“what do you think of prediction markets?”—

Unfortunately, this is an incomplete question. 🙂 To have an opinion I must have some outcome (context) to judge them. As an empirical means of obtaining excellent information and overcoming journalistic bias, I think that they are very close to self-insured propositions. And as a Propertarian and Testimonialist, I have nothing but good to say about them as experiments in demonstrating the LACK of quality of the opinions of public intellectuals. (which I think we all know is only useful as a set of propositions to choose between, not as particularly predictive.)

But it’s possible that your question may intend to ask whether we may institutionalize prediction markets for some particular end. And I’d have to know that end in order to answer it.