Theme: Measurement

  • Use of the Word ‘Natural’ in Economics

    (re: Tyler Cowen/ Scott Sumner / Econlib ) (important idea )

    —“Economic activity consists of interactions between people, and it’s not ever independent of human influence, and so it’s never “natural”.—

    [O]ne can however, increase the truth content of human relations, or one can decrease the truth content of human relations. One can increase the truth content of human relations in times of shock. One can decrease the truth content of human relations in order to accelerate consumption. So human relationships are in a natural state any time we improve institutions that improve information by reducing informational asymmetry, or distributing information that was previously unavailable (prices, interests rates, money supply, etc). Human relations are in an unnatural state when we insert disinformation in order to fool people into acting other than they would in the natural state. For this reason it is perhaps more accurate to distinguish not between natural and artificial, but truth and deception, morality and immorality. The most accurate model of the social sciences, like the physical sciences is information. Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev, Ukraine

  • (Americans have 1 fighter jet for every 130K people (2200)) Defense Budget: $577

    (Americans have 1 fighter jet for every 130K people (2200))

    Defense Budget: $577,100,000,000

    External Debt: $15,680,000,000,000

    Reserves of Foreign Exchange and Gold: $150,200,000,000

    Purchasing Power Parity: $16,720,000,000,000

    Total Population: 320,202,220

    Available Manpower: 145,212,012

    Fit for Service: 120,022,084

    Reaching Military Age Annually: 4,217,412

    Active Frontline Personnel: 1,400,000

    Active Reserve Personnel: 1,100,000

    Total Aircraft: 13,892

    Fightersllnterceptors: 2,207

    Fixed-Wing Attack Aircraft: 2,797

    Transport Aircraft: 5,366

    Trainer Aircraft: 2,809

    Helicopters: 6,196

    Attack Helicopters: 920

    Tanks: 8,848

    Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 41,062

    Self-Propelled Guns (SPGs): 1,934

    Towed-Artillery: 1,299

    Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems (MLRSs): 1,331

    Aircraft Carriers: 20

    Frigates: 10

    Destroyers: 62

    Corvettes: 0

    Submarines: 72

    Coastal Defense Craft: 13

    Mine Warfare: 11

    (Germans have 1 fighter for every 760,000 people (105))

    Defense Budget: $40,200,000,000

    External Debt: $5,717,000,000,000

    Reserves of Foreign Exchange and Gold: $248,900,000,000

    Purchasing Power Parity: $3,227,000,000,000

    Total Population: 80,996,685

    Available Manpower: 36,417,842

    Fit for Service: 29,538,413

    Reaching Military Age Annually: 790,368

    Fightersllnterceptors: 105

    Fixed-Wing Attack Aircraft: 192

    Transport Aircraft: 322

    Trainer Aircraft: 49

    Helicopters: 355

    Attack Helicopters: 34

    Active Frontline Personnel: 179,046

    Active Reserve Personnel: 145,000

    Tanks:408

    Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 5,869

    Self-Propelled Guns (SPGs): 154

    Towed-Artillery: 0

    Multiple-Launch Rocket Systems (MLRSs): 50

    Aircraft Carriers: 0

    Frigates: 11

    Destroyers: 0

    Corvettes: 5

    Submarines: 4

    Coastal Defense Craft: 8

    Mine Warfare: 15

    No meaningful Air or Sea Power.

    Insufficiently meaningful personnel.

    Sufficient bombers.

    Light but reasonable armor and helicopters.

    Assuming sufficient missile defense of the airspace it’s a worthwhile territorial defense strategy.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-11-11 13:51:00 UTC

  • because the cost of acquiring additional information for increased prediction, i

    because the cost of acquiring additional information for increased prediction, is greater than the benefit of prediction.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-11-10 18:37:07 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/664149806877646848

    Reply addressees: @SanguineEmpiric

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/664111460960698368


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

    Original tweet unavailable — we could not load the text of the post this reply is addressing on X. That usually means the tweet was deleted, the account is protected, or X does not expose it to the account used for archiving. The Original post link below may still open if you view it in X while signed in.

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/664111460960698368

  • This is an inaccurate statement. The correct is: general rules of arbitrary prec

    This is an inaccurate statement. The correct is: general rules of arbitrary precision possess limits of prediction.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-11-10 18:33:17 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/664148842368102400

    Reply addressees: @SanguineEmpiric

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/664111460960698368


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

    Original tweet unavailable — we could not load the text of the post this reply is addressing on X. That usually means the tweet was deleted, the account is protected, or X does not expose it to the account used for archiving. The Original post link below may still open if you view it in X while signed in.

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/664111460960698368

  • “In the current era, innumeracy is a far greater weakness than illiteracy.” —

    —“In the current era, innumeracy is a far greater weakness than illiteracy.” — Sean Ring

    (genius)


    Source date (UTC): 2015-11-09 08:14:00 UTC

  • USE OF THE WORD “NATURAL” IN ECONOMICS (re: Tyler Cowen/ Scott Sumner / Econlib

    USE OF THE WORD “NATURAL” IN ECONOMICS

    (re: Tyler Cowen/ Scott Sumner / Econlib ) (important idea )

    —“Economic activity consists of interactions between people, and it’s not ever independent of human influence, and so it’s never “natural”.—

    One can however, increase the truth content of human relations, or one can decrease the truth content of human relations. One can increase the truth content of human relations in times of shock. One can decrease the truth content of human relations in order to accelerate consumption.

    So human relationships are in a natural state any time we improve institutions that improve information by reducing informational asymmetry, or distributing information that was previously unavailable (prices, interests rates, money supply, etc).

    Human relations are in an unnatural state when we insert disinformation in order to fool people into acting other than they would in the natural state. For this reason it is perhaps more accurate to distinguish not between natural and artificial, but truth and deception, morality and immorality.

    The most accurate model of the social sciences, like the physical sciences is information.

    Curt Doolittle

    The Propertarian Institute

    Kiev, Ukraine


    Source date (UTC): 2015-11-09 04:39:00 UTC

  • Economic Methodologies As Expressions of Class Philosophy and Reproductive Strategy

    (good piece)(useful)(for austrians) [J]ust as in physical science, information is the model by which we fallible humans least inaccurately carry on a discourse and achieve understanding. Accuracy matters not just because convenience and tradition introduce errors, but because these errors are externalized to the rest of the population. Perhaps more importantly, as economists, we are more accountable for the externalities produced by our use of ‘terms of convenience’ than are thinkers in other fields. For example, the Cantorian fallacy of multiple infinities rather than ‘the rate at which we pair off positional numbers’ has led to intellectual externalities in popular culture if not philosophy and physics departments as well. Just as very few of those entities that mathematicians refer to exist as numbers, but instead exist only as functions. Just as economists refer to the movement of the curve rather than the behavior of individuals resulting in a change in an aggregate measure. These are habituations but they are unscientific terms in that they fail the test of existence unless stated operationally. And that is the problem with much discourse in economics. DEFINITIONS 1) Natural : evolutionarily extant deterministic patterns absent the intentional or accidental intervention of man, and/or outlier events such as shocks. –“the natural rate of interest refers to the amount that would balance supply and demand for money (or maybe investment) in the evenly rotating economy.”– 2) Austrian: the program whose members search for improvements in institutions of cooperation within the voluntary organization of production, distribution and trade through improvements in information, improving the ability of actors to plan. Purpose: improve symmetry of information. (Long term – Conservatism – K-selection – Capital – Aristocracy – Force/Law – Virtue Ethics ) 3) Chicago(Freshwater): the program whose members search for rules by which to extend non-discretionary rule of law by incorporating economic policy, such that interference via disinformation in the voluntary organization of production distribution and trade is procedural and non-discretionary, preserving the ability of actors to plan. Purpose: repair asymmetries of information. (Medium term – Liberalism – “Production-Selection” – Productivity – Bourgeoise – Exchange/Trade – Rule Ethics) 4) Keynesian(Saltwater): the program which seeks the maximum discretionary limits of disinformation insertable into in institutions of cooperation within the voluntary organization of production, to accelerate consumption without dis-incentivizing consumption and production. Purpose: produce misinformation as an incentive to produce and consume. (Short Term – Progressivism – r-selection – Consumption – Working Classes – Gossip-Rally-Shame/Boycott – Outcome Ethics) 5) Socialist: the program which seeks to circumvent the volatility and meritocracy of the voluntary organization of cooperation by providing information and institutions necessary for the involuntary organization of production, distribution and trade. Purpose: Eliminate individual need for information and decision. (Authoritarian – dysgenic selection – Proletarian Class – Revolt – non-ethical). This spectrum from NATURAL to SOCIALIST, constructed by changes in discretionary information, provides limits, and therefore greater tests of necessary truth content than any analysis of the meaning individual terms. Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev, Ukraine

  • Economic Methodologies As Expressions of Class Philosophy and Reproductive Strategy

    (good piece)(useful)(for austrians) [J]ust as in physical science, information is the model by which we fallible humans least inaccurately carry on a discourse and achieve understanding. Accuracy matters not just because convenience and tradition introduce errors, but because these errors are externalized to the rest of the population. Perhaps more importantly, as economists, we are more accountable for the externalities produced by our use of ‘terms of convenience’ than are thinkers in other fields. For example, the Cantorian fallacy of multiple infinities rather than ‘the rate at which we pair off positional numbers’ has led to intellectual externalities in popular culture if not philosophy and physics departments as well. Just as very few of those entities that mathematicians refer to exist as numbers, but instead exist only as functions. Just as economists refer to the movement of the curve rather than the behavior of individuals resulting in a change in an aggregate measure. These are habituations but they are unscientific terms in that they fail the test of existence unless stated operationally. And that is the problem with much discourse in economics. DEFINITIONS 1) Natural : evolutionarily extant deterministic patterns absent the intentional or accidental intervention of man, and/or outlier events such as shocks. –“the natural rate of interest refers to the amount that would balance supply and demand for money (or maybe investment) in the evenly rotating economy.”– 2) Austrian: the program whose members search for improvements in institutions of cooperation within the voluntary organization of production, distribution and trade through improvements in information, improving the ability of actors to plan. Purpose: improve symmetry of information. (Long term – Conservatism – K-selection – Capital – Aristocracy – Force/Law – Virtue Ethics ) 3) Chicago(Freshwater): the program whose members search for rules by which to extend non-discretionary rule of law by incorporating economic policy, such that interference via disinformation in the voluntary organization of production distribution and trade is procedural and non-discretionary, preserving the ability of actors to plan. Purpose: repair asymmetries of information. (Medium term – Liberalism – “Production-Selection” – Productivity – Bourgeoise – Exchange/Trade – Rule Ethics) 4) Keynesian(Saltwater): the program which seeks the maximum discretionary limits of disinformation insertable into in institutions of cooperation within the voluntary organization of production, to accelerate consumption without dis-incentivizing consumption and production. Purpose: produce misinformation as an incentive to produce and consume. (Short Term – Progressivism – r-selection – Consumption – Working Classes – Gossip-Rally-Shame/Boycott – Outcome Ethics) 5) Socialist: the program which seeks to circumvent the volatility and meritocracy of the voluntary organization of cooperation by providing information and institutions necessary for the involuntary organization of production, distribution and trade. Purpose: Eliminate individual need for information and decision. (Authoritarian – dysgenic selection – Proletarian Class – Revolt – non-ethical). This spectrum from NATURAL to SOCIALIST, constructed by changes in discretionary information, provides limits, and therefore greater tests of necessary truth content than any analysis of the meaning individual terms. Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev, Ukraine

  • INTELLIGENCE? Demonstrated intelligence consists of the following criteria: i) (

    http://www.propertarianism.com/2015/08/26/to-bruce-charlteon-measured-iq-vs-demonstrated-intelligence/DEMONSTRATED INTELLIGENCE?

    Demonstrated intelligence consists of the following criteria:

    i) (g) IQ (rate of pattern recognition)

    ii) Short term memory (necessary for mathematicians and chess players) NOTE: the literature refers to this as Working Memory, and I should change my language to reflect it.

    iii) General knowledge (reading a lot on a lot of subjects generally makes you smarter)

    iv) Method of inquiry consisting of inputs ( allegory, parable, history, measurement) and methods ( free association, mysticism, reason, rationalism(justification), science(criticism).

    v) Wants: Impossible Wants, Impossible Beliefs, Metaphysical Errors, and Erroneous Assumptions

    vi) Lack of impulsivity: Discipline, and Time (great ideas are achieved by focused work over very long periods – often approaching a decade or more)


    Source date (UTC): 2015-11-08 08:22:00 UTC

  • GERMANY REVERSES FLYNN EFFECT DUE TO DYSGENIC IMMIGRATION AND REPRODUCTION (the

    GERMANY REVERSES FLYNN EFFECT DUE TO DYSGENIC IMMIGRATION AND REPRODUCTION

    (the authors don’t say that but it’s obvious)

    A reversal of the Flynn effect for spatial perception in German-speaking countries: Evidence from a cross-temporal IRT-based meta-analysis (1977–2014) Original Research Article Pages 145-153, Jakob Pietschnig, Georg Gittler

    • Spatial perception scores decreased from 1977 to 2014 in German-speaking countries.

    •We observed an inverse u-shaped trajectory of IQ test score changes.

    •Changes remained robust when controlling for age, sample type, and sex.

    •Decreasing performance may be due to decreasing psychometric g.


    Source date (UTC): 2015-11-08 07:34:00 UTC