Source: Facebook

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF NEW EUROPEAN ZONE

—“Curt, Can you please write a post on the economic feasibility of banning imports outside of a New European zone? I want to see what the king of the hill process does to the proposal on page 67 of NZM”— Oliver

New European Zone? I assume that means Australia, NZ, USA, Canada, Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia, (But South America?, India?).

(Short version: easy for everyone except aussie/nz who pay the distance cost. But its easy to do, yes.)

I’m not going to go into world balances of trade between the parties. It would take me all day to write this post. And I’m going to state the obvious that other countries would retaliate. But if you look at the list at the end of this post you will rapidly see that the USA and canada can easily survive it. The outliers are NZ and Aussies who are for all intents and purposes, client states of asia.

Cutting out africa (minerals), the middle east(oil), and asia(manufacturing capacity) is entirely possible. and the result would largely be transfer of japanese and chinese manufacturing capacity to Germany and the USA, and the strategic transfer of the Japanese relationship to Asia, and an axis of japan and south korea that might perhaps ally with india.

It is hard to choose whether to exclude or include india and south america, both of which are european admixtures. Russia is also integrated with (northern) Kazakhstan and imports 1/10th of its oil. Russia India and China have large trade relationships. The west would have to subsidize russian military production by buying their equipment as a replacement for the asian and middle eastern markets. China wold be able to build her military technology by finding ready markets middle eastern, african, and asian realms.

Russia would roughly exchange its role as an asian trade power for the role of the middle east and asia in supplying oil and resources. And so it is russia that is the ‘power position’ in any such negotiation, and putting her in this position of power would tempt russian nature, but restore her to world power status which she desires.

However russia cannot compete as a world power with her population and economy; asia as an interest in reclaiming russian territory and resources. Her interest given her nature might be swiss neutrality. We would have to buy russian involvement which would require american military exit from europe and a general comfort on the part of eastern europeans that is hard to imagine.

THE ALTERNATIVE 1

Limit trade to raw materials and food, and autarky on goods produced by transformation of them. This is the optimum balance of providing world trade in territorial differences but ameliorating differences in degrees of development of human capital by eliminating wage arbitrage (differences in cost of living and purchasing power).

THE ALTERNATIVE 2

The Anglosphere Alternative (restoration of the british empire). is somewhat easier to pull off since we are already autarkic with only Australian and NZ the outliers.

Australia:

***China 32.2%,

***Japan 15.9%,

***South Korea 7.1%,

US 5.4%,

***India 4.2% (2015)

New Zealand:

***China: US$9.6 billion (24.9% of New Zealand’s total exports)

Australia: $5.7 billion (14.8%)

United States: $3.7 billion (9.6%)

***Japan: $2.4 billion (6.3%)

***South Korea: $1.2 billion (3.1%)

United Kingdom: $1 billion (2.7%)

***Singapore: $832.5 million (2.2%)

***Taiwan: $831.8 million (2.2%)

***Hong Kong: $761.5 million (2%)

***Malaysia: $702.5 million (1.8%)

***Indonesia: $675.8 million (1.8%)

***Thailand: $638.2 million (1.7%)

Netherlands: $586 million (1.5%)

Germany: $579 million (1.5%)

***United Arab Emirates: $533.8 million (1.4%)

Canada:

United States: US$337.8 billion (75.1% of total Canadian exports)

***China: $21.3 billion (4.7%)

United Kingdom: $12.6 billion (2.8%)

***Japan: $10 billion (2.2%)

Mexico: $6.3 billion (1.4%)

South Korea: $4.5 billion (1%)

Germany: $3.7 billion (0.8%)

Netherlands: $3.7 billion (0.8%)

***India: $3.2 billion (0.7%)

***Hong Kong: $3 billion (0.7%)

Belgium: $2.8 billion (0.6%)

France: $2.6 billion (0.6%)

Italy: $2.3 billion (0.5%)

Norway: $1.9 billion (0.4%)

***Brazil: $1.7 billion (0.4%)

America:

Canada: US$298.7 billion (18% of total US exports)

***Mexico: $265 billion (15.9%)

***China: $120.3 billion (7.2%)

***Japan: $75 billion (4.5%)

United Kingdom: $66.2 billion (4%)

Germany: $57.7 billion (3.5%)

***South Korea: $56.3 billion (3.4%)

Netherlands: $49.4 billion (3%)

***Brazil: $39.5 billion (2.4%)

Hong Kong: $37.5 billion (2.3%)

France: $37.4 billion (2.2%)

***Singapore: $33.1 billion (2%)

***India: $33.1 billion (2%)

Belgium: $31.4 billion (1.9%)

***Taiwan: $30.2 billion (1.8%)

UK:

United States: US$64.4 billion (13.3% of total UK exports)

Germany: $47 billion (9.7%)

Netherlands: $33.3 billion (6.9%)

France: $31.8 billion (6.6%)

Ireland: $28.3 billion (5.9%)

***China: $27.5 billion (5.7%)

Switzerland: $25.4 billion (5.2%)

Belgium: $19.1 billion (4%)

Italy: $14.1 billion (2.9%)

Spain: $13.9 billion (2.9%)

***Hong Kong: $10.3 billion (2.1%)

***United Arab Emirates: $10 billion (2.1%)

***Turkey: $9.5 billion (2%)

***Japan: $8.3 billion (1.7%)

***South Korea: $7.8 billion (1.6%)

Ireland:

United States: US$46 billion (27.9% of total Irish exports)

Belgium: $21.7 billion (13.2%)

United Kingdom: $18.7 billion (11.4%)

Germany: $12.2 billion (7.4%)

Netherlands: $9 billion (5.4%)

Switzerland: $7.7 billion (4.6%)

France: $6.2 billion (3.8%)

China: $5.4 billion (3.3%)

Japan: $4.6 billion (2.8%)

Italy: $4.3 billion (2.6%)

Spain: $3 billion (1.8%)

***Mexico: $1.7 billion (1%)

Canada: $1.6 billion (1%)

Poland: $1.4 billion (0.8%)

Sweden: $1.1 billion (0.7%)

LATIN BLOCK

France: (FRANCE IS, LIKE THE USA, AUTARKIC)

Germany: US$83.3 billion (14.7% of total French exports)

United States: $45.3 billion (8%)

Spain: $44.3 billion (7.8%)

Italy: $42.8 billion (7.5%)

Belgium: $40.4 billion (7.1%)

United Kingdom: $38.6 billion (6.8%)

***China: $24.5 billion (4.3%)

Netherlands: $20.9 billion (3.7%)

Switzerland: $18.9 billion (3.3%)

Poland: $11.7 billion (2.1%)

***Singapore: $9.7 billion (1.7%)

***Japan: $7.8 billion (1.4%)

***Hong Kong: $7.3 billion (1.3%)

***Turkey: $7.1 billion (1.2%)

***India: $6.5 billion (1.1%)

Spain

France: US$48.5 billion (15.1% of total Spanish exports)

Germany: $36.1 billion (11.3%)

Italy: $25.1 billion (7.8%)

Portugal: $22.6 billion (7.1%)

United Kingdom: $22 billion (6.9%)

United States: $14.1 billion (4.4%)

Netherlands: $10.8 billion (3.4%)

Belgium: $9.6 billion (3%)

Morocco: $9 billion (2.8%)

***China: $7.1 billion (2.2%)

Poland: $6.5 billion (2%)

Turkey: $6.5 billion (2%)

Mexico: $5.2 billion (1.6%)

Switzerland: $4.7 billion (1.5%)

Romania: $3.2 billion (1%)

Portugal

Spain: US$17.4 billion (25.3% of total Portuguese exports)

France: $8.7 billion (12.7%)

Germany: $7.9 billion (11.5%)

United Kingdom: $4.3 billion (6.3%)

United States: $3.4 billion (5%)

Italy: $2.9 billion (4.3%)

Netherlands: $2.6 billion (3.8%)

Angola: $1.8 billion (2.6%)

Belgium: $1.6 billion (2.3%)

Brazil: $957.5 million (1.4%)

Poland: $897.2 million (1.3%)

***Morocco: $819.4 million (1.2%)

China: $777.6 million (1.1%)

Sweden: $686.8 million (1%)

Switzerland: $681.6 million (1%)

ITALY:

Germany: US$62.9 billion (12.4% of total Italian exports)

France: $51.9 billion (10.3%)

United States: $45.8 billion (9%)

Spain: $26.1 billion (5.2%)

United Kingdom: $26 billion (5.1%)

Switzerland: $23.4 billion (4.6%)

***China: $15.3 billion (3%)

Belgium: $15.2 billion (3%)

Poland: $14.2 billion (2.8%)

Netherlands: $11.8 billion (2.3%)

***Turkey: $11.4 billion (2.3%)

Austria: $10.7 billion (2.1%)

Russia: $9 billion (1.8%)

Romania: $8.2 billion (1.6%)

***Japan: $7.4 billion (1.5%)

GERMAN BLOCK

Netherlands

Germany: US$146.8 billion (22.5% of total Dutch exports)

Belgium: $68.3 billion (10.5%)

United Kingdom: $56.6 billion (8.7%)

France: $55.3 billion (8.5%)

Italy: $25.7 billion (3.9%)

United States: $22.7 billion (3.5%)

Spain: $19.9 billion (3.1%)

Poland: $15.6 billion (2.4%)

Sweden: $14.7 billion (2.2%)

***China: $13.5 billion (2.1%)

Czech Republic: $11.2 billion (1.7%)

Austria: $8.6 billion (1.3%)

Switzerland: $7.9 billion (1.2%)

Denmark: $7.8 billion (1.2%)

***Turkey: $7.2 billion (1.1%)

Belglum

Germany: US$70.7 billion (16.5% of total Belgian exports)

France: $63.8 billion (14.9%)

Netherlands: $51.4 billion (12%)

United Kingdom: $36 billion (8.4%)

Italy: $20.9 billion (4.9%)

United States: $20.6 billion (4.8%)

Spain: $11.8 billion (2.8%)

Poland: $9.2 billion (2.1%)

***India: $8.9 billion (2.1%)

***China: $8.9 billion (2.1%)

Sweden: $7.5 billion (1.7%)

Switzerland: $7 billion (1.6%)

Luxembourg: $6.4 billion (1.5%)

***Turkey: $5.8 billion (1.4%)

Russia: $4.4 billion (1%)

Over three-quarters (77.1%) of Belgian exports in 2017 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

Germany:

United States: US$134 billion (8.6% of total German exports)

France: $124.4 billion (8%)

***China: $109.9 billion (7.1%)

Netherlands: $99.8 billion (6.4%)

United Kingdom: $96.8 billion (6.2%)

Italy: $82.6 billion (5.3%)

Austria: $75.2 billion (4.8%)

Poland: $74.7 billion (4.8%)

Switzerland: $64.3 billion (4.1%)

Spain: $52.4 billion (3.4%)

Belgium: $52.3 billion (3.4%)

Czech Republic: $51.8 billion (3.3%)

Sweden: $31.1 billion (2%)

Hungary: $31 billion (2%)

Russia: $30.6 billion (2%)

Austria

Germany: US$48.7 billion (29.0% of total Austrian exports)

United States: $10.3 billion (6.1%)

Italy: $10.2 billion (6.1%)

Switzerland: $8.5 billion (5.1%)

Slovakia: $8.1 billion (4.8%)

France: $7.9 billion (4.7%)

Czech Republic: $5.9 billion (3.5%)

Hungary: $5.5 billion (3.3%)

Poland: $5.2 billion (3.1%)

***China: $4.4 billion (2.6%)

United Kingdom: $4.4 billion (2.6%)

Slovenia: $3.2 billion (1.9%)

Netherlands: $2.9 billion (1.7%)

Romania: $2.7 billion (1.6%)

Spain: $2.7 billion (1.6%)

Over three-quarters (77.6%) of Austrian exports in 2017 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

Denmark:

Germany: US$15.6 billion (14.5% of total Danish exports)

Sweden: $11.3 billion (10.5%)

United Kingdom: $6.7 billion (6.2%)

Norway: $6.3 billion (5.9%)

United States: $4.7 billion (4.4%)

Netherlands: $4.6 billion (4.3%)

France: $3.3 billion (3.1%)

***China: $3.2 billion (2.9%)

Poland: $3 billion (2.8%)

Italy: $2.4 billion (2.2%)

Finland: $2 billion (1.9%)

Spain: $1.9 billion (1.8%)

Belgium: $1.7 billion (1.6%)

***Japan: $1.5 billion (1.4%)

Australia: $959.3 million (0.9%)

Sweden

Germany: US$16.4 billion (10.7% of total Swedish exports)

Norway: $15.5 billion (10.1%)

Finland: $10.5 billion (6.9%)

Denmark: $10.4 billion (6.8%)

United States: $10.1 billion (6.6%)

United Kingdom: $9.3 billion (6.1%)

Netherlands: $8.3 billion (5.4%)

***China: $6.8 billion (4.4%)

Belgium: $6.5 billion (4.3%)

France: $6.3 billion (4.1%)

Poland: $4.6 billion (3%)

Italy: $4 billion (2.6%)

Spain: $2.9 billion (1.9%)

***Japan: $2.2 billion (1.5%)

Russia: $2.1 billion (1.4%)

Norway:

United Kingdom: US$26.5 billion (21.6% of Norway’s total exports)

Germany: $19.7 billion (16%)

Netherlands: $13.1 billion (10.7%)

Sweden: $8.2 billion (6.7%)

France: $8.2 billion (6.7%)

Belgium: $6.4 billion (5.2%)

Denmark: $5.8 billion (4.7%)

United States: $5.7 billion (4.7%)

Poland: $2.8 billion (2.3%)

***China: $2.6 billion (2.1%)

Spain: $2.2 billion (1.8%)

Finland: $2 billion (1.6%)

Italy: $1.6 billion (1.3%)

***Japan: $1.4 billion (1.2%)

***South Korea: $1.4 billion (1.1%)

Finland:

Germany: US$9.3 billion (13.7% of total Finnish exports)

Sweden: $6.3 billion (9.3%)

Netherlands: $4.4 billion (6.5%)

United States: $4.4 billion (6.4%)

Russia: $3.7 billion (5.5%)

***China: $3.7 billion (5.4%)

United Kingdom: $2.8 billion (4.2%)

Belgium: $2.1 billion (3.1%)

France: $2 billion (3%)

Estonia: $1.9 billion (2.8%)

Norway: $1.6 billion (2.4%)

Poland: $1.6 billion (2.4%)

Italy: $1.5 billion (2.2%)

***Japan: $1.1 billion (1.7%)

Spain: $1.1 billion (1.6%)

Lithuania

Russia: US$4.7 billion (14% of total Lithuanian exports)

Latvia: $3.2 billion (9.7%)

Poland: $2.7 billion (8.2%)

Germany: $2.5 billion (7.4%)

United States: $1.7 billion (5.2%)

Estonia: $1.7 billion (5%)

Sweden: $1.6 billion (4.9%)

Belarus: $1.3 billion (3.8%)

United Kingdom: $1.3 billion (3.8%)

Netherlands: $1.1 billion (3.3%)

Ukraine: $1 billion (3.1%)

Norway: $933.8 million (2.8%)

France: $837 million (2.5%)

Denmark: $833.9 million (2.5%)

Italy: $727.3 million (2.2%)

INTERMARIUM BLOCK

Poland:

Germany: US$63.3 billion (27.4% of total Polish exports)

Czech Republic: $14.8 billion (6.4%)

United Kingdom: $14.7 billion (6.4%)

France: $12.9 billion (5.6%)

Italy: $11.3 billion (4.9%)

Netherlands: $10.1 billion (4.4%)

Russia: $7 billion (3%)

Sweden: $6.4 billion (2.8%)

Spain: $6.2 billion (2.7%)

United States: $6.2 billion (2.7%)

Hungary: $6.1 billion (2.6%)

Slovakia: $5.8 billion (2.5%)

Belgium: $5.1 billion (2.2%)

Ukraine: $4.8 billion (2.1%)

Austria: $4.4 billion (1.9%)

Ukraine

Russia: US$3.9 billion (9.1% of total Ukrainian exports)

Poland: $2.7 billion (6.3%)

***Turkey: $2.5 billion (5.8%)

Italy: $2.5 billion (5.7%)

***India: $2.2 billion (5.1%)

***China: $2.1 billion (4.9%)

***Egypt: $1.8 billion (4.2%)

Germany: $1.8 billion (4%)

Netherlands: $1.7 billion (3.9%)

Hungary: $1.3 billion (3.1%)

Spain: $1.3 billion (2.9%)

Belarus: $1.1 billion (2.6%)

Romania: $844.2 million (1.94%)

United States: $834 million (1.92%)

Czech Republic: $715.4 million (1.6%)

Almost two-thirds (63.1%) of Ukrainian exports in 2017 were delivered to the above 15 trading partners.

Slovakia

Germany: US$17.5 billion (20.7% of total Slovak exports)

Czech Republic: $9.8 billion (11.6%)

Poland: $6.5 billion (7.7%)

France: $5.3 billion (6.3%)

Italy: $5.1 billion (6.1%)

United Kingdom: $5.1 billion (6%)

Hungary: $5.1 billion (6%)

Austria: $5.1 billion (6%)

Spain: $2.5 billion (2.9%)

United States: $2.3 billion (2.7%)

Netherlands: $2.2 billion (2.6%)

Romania: $2.1 billion (2.5%)

Russia: $1.8 billion (2.1%)

China: $1.4 billion (1.6%)

Switzerland: $1.3 billion (1.6%)

Romania

Germany: US$16.2 billion (22.9% of total Romanian exports)

Italy: $7.9 billion (11.1%)

France: $4.8 billion (6.7%)

Hungary: $3.3 billion (4.7%)

United Kingdom: $2.9 billion (4.1%)

Bulgaria: $2.34 billion (3.3%)

Turkey: $2.33 billion (3.3%)

Poland: $2.2 billion (3.1%)

Spain: $2.1 billion (3%)

Czech Republic: $2 billion (2.9%)

Netherlands: $1.8 billion (2.6%)

Austria: $1.6 billion (2.3%)

Belgium: $1.4 billion (2%)

Russia: $1.25 billion (1.8%)

Slovakia: $1.21 billion (1.7%)

Czech Republic:

Germany: US$65.2 billion (32.2% of total Czechian exports)

Slovakia: $15.2 billion (7.5%)

Poland: $12.2 billion (6%)

France: $10.2 billion (5.1%)

United Kingdom: $9.5 billion (4.7%)

Austria: $9 billion (4.4%)

Italy: $7.8 billion (3.9%)

Netherlands: $7.5 billion (3.7%)

Spain: $6 billion (3%)

Hungary: $6 billion (3%)

Belgium: $4.3 billion (2.1%)

Russia: $4.1 billion (2%)

United States: $4.1 billion (2%)

Sweden: $3.5 billion (1.7%)

Romania: $3 billion (1.5%)

Over four-fifths (82.9%) of Czechian exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

RUSSIAN IMPERIAL BLOCK

Russia:

***China: US$56 billion (12.5% of total Russian exports)

Netherlands: $43.5 billion (9.7%)

Germany: $34.1 billion (7.6%)

Belarus: $21.8 billion (4.9%)

***Turkey: $21.3 billion (4.8%)

***South Korea: $17.8 billion (4%)

Poland: $16.5 billion (3.7%)

Italy: $16.4 billion (3.7%)

Kazakhstan: $12.9 billion (2.9%)

United States: $12.5 billion (2.8%)

***Japan: $12.5 billion (2.8%)

Finland: $11.4 billion (2.5%)

United Kingdom: $9.8 billion (2.2%)

Ukraine: $9.5 billion (2.1%)

Belgium: $9.2 billion (2%)

Belarus

Russia: US$12.9 billion (38.5% of total Belarusian exports)

Ukraine: $4.1 billion (12.1%)

United Kingdom: $3.1 billion (9.2%)

Germany: $1.4 billion (4.3%)

Netherlands: $1.4 billion (4.3%)

Poland: $1.3 billion (4%)

Lithuania: $1.2 billion (3.4%)

Kazakhstan: $780.1 million (2.3%)

Brazil: $585.1 million (1.7%)

Latvia: $471.9 million (1.4%)

China: $467.9 million (1.4%)

India: $299 million (0.9%)

United States: $274.3 million (0.8%)

Indonesia: $227.4 million (0.7%)

Azerbaijan: $223.8 million (0.7%)

Approaching nine-tenths (85.8%) of Belarusian exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

Georgia:

Russia: US$400.8 million (15.8% of Georgia’s total exports)

Bulgaria: $250 million (9.8%)

Turkey: $226.3 million (8.9%)

China: $181.3 million (7.1%)

Azerbaijan: $165.8 million (6.5%)

United States: $157.8 million (6.2%)

Ukraine: $119.1 million (4.7%)

Armenia: $105.6 million (4.2%)

Spain: $65.8 million (2.6%)

Switzerland: $62.5 million (2.5%)

Iran: $60.6 million (2.4%)

Uzbekistan: $58.7 million (2.3%)

Romania: $56.1 million (2.2%)

Germany: $47 million (1.9%)

France: $43.3 million (1.7%)

Almost four-fifths (78.8%) of Georgian exports during 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

OLD EUROPE

Greece

Italy: US$4.1 billion (10.3% of total Greek exports)

Germany: $2.5 billion (6.4%)

Turkey: $2.4 billion (6.1%)

Cyprus: $2.2 billion (5.7%)

Bulgaria: $1.8 billion (4.5%)

Lebanon: $1.8 billion (4.5%)

United States: $1.6 billion (4.1%)

United Kingdom: $1.4 billion (3.6%)

Egypt: $1.4 billion (3.5%)

Spain: $1.3 billion (3.3%)

France: $1.2 billion (3%)

Romania: $1.1 billion (2.9%)

China: $1.1 billion (2.7%)

Macedonia: $939.7 million (2.4%)

Saudi Arabia: $850.4 million (2.2%)

Almost two-thirds (65.1%) of Greek exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

Bulgaria

Germany: US$3.6 billion (13.6% of total Bulgarian exports)

Italy: $2.4 billion (9.2%)

Romania: $2.3 billion (8.8%)

Turkey: $2.1 billion (8%)

Greece: $1.8 billion (7%)

France: $1.2 billion (4.5%)

Spain: $733.1 million (2.8%)

Belgium: $715.1 million (2.7%)

Netherlands: $706.3 million (2.7%)

United Kingdom: $656.3 million (2.5%)

Poland: $648.2 million (2.5%)

Austria: $507.5 million (1.9%)

Serbia: $494.9 million (1.9%)

China: $481.2 million (1.8%)

Czech Republic: $445.3 million (1.7%)

Almost three-quarters (71.8%) of Bulgarian exports in 2017 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

(apologies to the rest)