Theme: Productivity

  • RATES OF DEPRECIATION I write a great deal about this subject, but some pictures

    RATES OF DEPRECIATION

    I write a great deal about this subject, but some pictures do the subject greater justice.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-05-17 02:56:00 UTC

  • CHINA You know, I tend to look at really boring things like demographics, educat

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10044456/China-may-not-overtake-America-this-century-after-all.htmlON CHINA

    You know, I tend to look at really boring things like demographics, education, cultural values (Trust, Truth, Corruption), and the complexity of the products produced rather than the high variability of financial activity. Most of this stuff falls into the long wave hypothesis, which in my opinion is a variation on the Generations hypothesis.

    That’s why I was right about china’s growth path even though I was wrong about how long that they could hold it together. I said 2010, but clearly I didn’t understand their ability to keep pumping money into the economy well enough. Or maybe I misunderstood the value of china as a safer-haven during the crisis. I don’t know. The medium term isn’t my specialty – the long term is.

    That said, there is no way china gets out of the middle income trap. Velocity is impressive, and I certainly understand what they’re trying to do. But no way. Too many other problems.

    But maybe I should hedge that a bit. Sure, there is no way that they avoid having the middle income problem. That isn’t to say that unlike other smaller countries with less control, that they can’t work out of it with levers that most other countries couldn’t use.

    Authoritarian governments can (a) force literacy (b) force spending into the economy and even (c) control birth rates. They can also (d) brutally crack down on corruption, (e) totally destroy the oligarchs without also tearing the country apart. What I don’t want to see them to is what most countries with less control might do (f) externalize the internal conflict through aggressive military expansion. Russia for example, cannot fix its military culture, or its alcohol culture, despite the fact that they’re closely related.

    India can’t do it because india lacks the central power structure to overcome corruption – the red army is always there and happy to use its power. In india they dont’ have that power, and have to achieve it organically – and slowly, if at all. (I wish our army was as dedicated to the constitution as it is to the idea of civilian leadership. The army is more reliable than the courts.)

    I’m just as impressed with recent data as everyone else is. But I don’t have a handle on the state of affairs well enough to look for contrarian positions. And I’m pretty skeptical that we have enough momentum to insulate ourselves from other possible shocks. (Although, those of us who have been studying international politics long enough probably realize that the speed of communication and information


    Source date (UTC): 2013-05-09 09:22:00 UTC

  • Is It Possible To Quantify Work Experience?

    In reality, no.  (We have been doing it for ten years.) 
    (a) skills are perishable
    (b) experience is not indicative of performance – perhaps error reduction, but not competitive performance.
    (c) rate of career advancement, educational institution (a filter), IQ and physical appearance are the best individual measures.

    We have used stack ranking and peer review and it is surprisingly effective.  Management is almost always wrong. Peers are the best determinant of value.

    https://www.quora.com/Is-it-possible-to-quantify-work-experience

  • REWRITING ECONOMIC HISTORY TO INCLUDE R&D. Finally. FInally we’re getting our ec

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/04/we-are-essentially-rewriting-economic-history.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FKupd+(Economist’s+View)FINALLY: REWRITING ECONOMIC HISTORY TO INCLUDE R&D.

    Finally. FInally we’re getting our economic data updated. Now, if they’d just do the same with household income data, we might have a worthwhile set of data to work from.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-04-22 07:16:00 UTC

  • “THE PROFITABILITY OF DAYDREAMING WITH REASON” QUESTION VIA EMAIL “Curt, how do

    “THE PROFITABILITY OF DAYDREAMING WITH REASON”

    QUESTION VIA EMAIL

    “Curt, how do you write all this stuff during the day? And still get work done?”

    MY ANSWER

    We all screw-off differently. When I’m working, I focus on some problem until I am not in the ‘flow’ — which means, working by effortless free association. Then I take fifteen or twenty minutes to eat a piece of fruit, have a cup of coffe, look out the window, walk across the room, or visit a variety of economics blogs, facebook groups, Quora, my web site’s draft pages, SSRN, whatever stack of books I have on the table, and whatever, and I let myself react to whatever it is that interests me, and I write about it.

    Then, when that’s done, after my short term memory has changed contexts, I go back to whatever I was working on, and keep going with renewed interest both conscious and subconscious, letting my short term memory do it’s work of free association for me. (This is the secret to all creativity.)

    In this way, I’m never really ‘working’ in the sense that most people mean it. I’m daydreaming and writing down the content of my dreams. It takes a very long time to develop this habit, which is why most writers and programmers will tell you ‘just write’, and most artists will tell you ‘just make work’. Reason is actually a pretty weak property of the human mind. If you can teach yourself to daydream (intuit) something useful, then it isn’t work. It’s just habit and its effortless – like watching a campfire, or boats on the horizon. And when that happens, you end up chasing your feelings rather than fighting to suppress your feelings. Discipline is a function of reason. Creativity is a function of intuition.

    I write software, proposals, arguments, and analytical philosophy by daydreaming. Seriously. The entire skill is just to teach yourself to type fast enough that you can narrate your dreams.

    I do not think in words. It’s a very visual process. I feel logic the way most people feel space, or emotions. I’ve just become adept at becoming an observer of those feelings and intuitions, and capturing them. Editing’s the hard part. That’s work. I don’t have much patience for real work. lol.

    The byproduct of daydreaming as a profession, is that you can literally work eighteen hours a day, because you can’t imagine doing anything more wonderful than daydreaming for a living.

    The mind is just an enormous volume of memory with a few primitive instincts. Fill your short term memory with stuff. Let it do it’s job. It helps a whole lot if you like the stuff you fill your memory with. And you can only make money at filling your memory with things that are scarce, because only those things that are scarce are things that are valuable. It doesn’t do much good to fill your head with pop music, and gossip, it’s just easy to acquire. So the trick is to fill your head, constantly, with something that is interesting but rare.

    Marginal differences in intelligence simply make it easier to acquire increasingly scarce information. Because marginal differences in the intelligence necessary to produces scarce information are rare.

    There isn’t much mystery to man really. We’re pretty simple. It’s just that every other creature we know of has to evolve by dying or breeding and incorporating that knowledge into genes. We have the ability to incorporate it into memory. Both serve the same purpose.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-04-10 08:05:00 UTC

  • Despite The Obvious Differences In Cultural Work Ethic Between American And Chinese Workers, Why Has America Remained The Most Productive Nation Per Worker In The World?

    The chinese will lose their Work Ethic just like American Ethnicity and People and Japanese, when enough of them are in the Middle Class (social class) and urbanized that they no longer fear going back to the farm – where real hard work must be done.
    🙂

    https://www.quora.com/Despite-the-obvious-differences-in-cultural-work-ethic-between-American-and-Chinese-workers-why-has-America-remained-the-most-productive-nation-per-worker-in-the-world

  • CELEBRATION! We have left the building for the night. We finished the last sprin

    CELEBRATION!

    We have left the building for the night.

    We finished the last sprint on the new UI features, and the pricing system, and have started on the incredibly complex task of resource management – a difficult problem that all Agencies and Consultancies face. And we have absolutely the best solution on the market – if you have to manage a lot of TRAFFIC in production work. And that’s before we even talk about having tickets, work orders, production, agile and WBS all in the same product .

    So we are going to celebrate.

    Actually, I had to tell the guys that no, I would not fly to Istanbul tonight and come back in tatters on Monday. We deserve a celebration. But my body can’t take that kind of insanity right now. I called them on age. These guys are almost half my age. So I asked for mercy. 🙂

    They were merciful but only to the extent that we must plan a party trip to L’viv.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-04-03 13:03:00 UTC

  • INEPTOCRACY can only exist as a Kleptocracy. ARISTOCRACY can only exist as Merit

    INEPTOCRACY can only exist as a Kleptocracy.

    ARISTOCRACY can only exist as Meritocracy.

    ECONOMICS requires these statements be true.

    In agrarian societies, entire families struggle to produce goods so that they can participate in the market. In post industrial societies, declining numbers of people participate in the market, and the majority of people actively seek to avoid the market at all costs: through salaried employment, unionization, government work, redistribution schemes, and work at charities. Very few people participate in the market today. And this is the preference for all of us. We are natural rent seekers and free riders. It is unnatural to want to participate in the competitive market.

    Liberty is the desire of the few willing to participate in the market.

    Freedom has been intentionally redefined by progressives as a freedom from nature rather than freedom from constraint by man.

    Democracy is rule by the worst.


    Source date (UTC): 2013-03-31 06:29:00 UTC

  • Can Socialism/marxism/communism Work Without The Forced Coercion Of The Productive And The Abrogation Of Private Property?

    You are getting terrible answers here, and your question is a bit confusing. So lets clarify terms a bit first, and see if we can get you a decent response:

    1) Socialism is defined as the state ownership of property, and central management of production and distribution.

    2) Communism is the absence of private property.

    Which is why your question seems odd. Instead I think  you mean ‘socialistic’ which is what we have in westen democracies today:

    3) Democratic redistributive socialism is private control of property with heavy progressive taxation of profits. This is what we do in most countries today. It preserves both the ability of individuals to conduct economic calculation and the incentives necessary for them to act in concert to fulfill the desires of others for purely selfish reasons.  THe general argument is predicated on the idea of Pareto Efficiency: that you can take something from someone and give it to something else, as long as it does not make him worse off.  Which in political terms means that the individual does not lose his incentive to produce at the same level as he does prior to the theft of his property by the government for redistribution to others.   The logic of this is that for businesses to grow and expand, consumers must have money to spend and that more additional money is made when they spend it, and so, at least in the end result, everyone is always getting better over time.  … I will not follow the entire economic cycle here but in theory and practice, to a limited extent, it is not a bad idea even if it feels immoral to many of us.

    WHY THE SOCIALIST NON-ECONOMY DOES NOT WORK

    1) Prices are an information system that tells people what they need to do to satisfy the needs of others.

    2) Without prices it is impossible for humans to plan the production of complex goods.

    3) Without prices people cannot have the information needed to have the incentives to engage in productive activity.

    4) any attempt to use computers and static means of production would be forced in to autarkic production (a need to be totally self sustaining) by relative decrease in productivity, followed by constant impoverishment (See Cuba).

    It does not work outside of the family, and only works within the family, because of parental dictatorship, and our instincts for consanguineous cooperation and care-taking.

    The world has abandoned both communism and socialism, and has assumed highly redistributive consumer capitalism   Which is ‘socialistic’ but not technically socialist.  This maintains prices, and incentives, and the ability to plan complex production while taking as much profit as possible from producers without destroying incentives.

    It appears that outside of the west, most countries have or will, adopt totalitarian consumer capitalism, which in practice, in China for example, is an oligarchy running major state industries and finance, and redistribution in the form of easy credit and public services to ‘everyone else’.   This seems to be the pattern. It is not any different from what we have in the USA,  it’s just more obvious.

    But no, since communism is the abandonment of private property, no it is not possible, ever, under any circumstance, which is why it’s been abandoned.

    Socialism cannot exist either because it is not possible for people to operate an economy without money, prices and property, becasue neigher economic calculation nor incentives can exist.

    But that has not stopped the desire for it.  Any more than people have stopped the desire for the absurdity of divinities and afterlife.  These ideas are a religious need, a spiritual need, in many people.  SO this is why they have turned to the religion of Postmodernism as the newest reformation of socialism.

    POSTMODERNISM

    In response to the total failure of the Communist and Socialist agendas, both in theory and in practice, most of the left intellectuals have adopted Postmodernism which is where the idea that

    Forgive the long quote here in exchange for its value:

    “In postmodern discourse, truth is rejected explicitly and consistency can be a rare phenomenon. Consider the following pairs of claims.

    1) On the one hand, all truth is relative; on the other hand, postmodernism tells it like it really is.

    2) On the one hand, all cultures are equally deserving of respect; on the other, Western culture is uniquely destructive and bad.

    3) Values are subjective—but sexism and racism are really evil.

    4) Technology is bad and destructive—and it is unfair that some people have more technology than others.

    5) Tolerance is good and dominance is bad—but when postmodernists come to power, political correctness follows.

    There is a common pattern here: Subjectivism and relativism in one breath, dogmatic absolutism in the next.  Postmodernists are well aware of the contradictions—especially since their opponents relish pointing them out at every opportunity.

    They say that the West is deeply sexist, but they know very well that Western women were the first to get the vote, contractual rights, and the opportunities that most women in the world are still without.

    They say that Western capitalist countries are cruel to their poorer members, subjugating them and getting rich off them, but they know very well that the poor in the West are far richer than the poor anywhere else, both in terms of material assets and the opportunities to improve their condition.

    Postmodernism is therefore first a political movement, and a brand of politics that has only lately come to relativism.” – Stephen Hicks, Explaining Postmodernism (2004)


    COMMUNISM->SOCIALISM ->POSTMODERNISM ARE RELIGIONS

    “Both religion and socialism started with a comprehensive vision that they believed to be true but not based on reason (various prophets; Rousseau Both visions were then challenged by visions based on rational epistemologies (early naturalist critics of religion; early liberal critics of socialism). Both religion and socialism responded by saying that they could satisfy the criteria of reason (natural theology; scientific socialism). Both religion and socialism then ran into serious problems of logic and evidence (Hume’s attacks on natural theology; Mises’s and Hayek’s attacks on socialist calculation). Both then responded in turn by attacking reality and reason (Kant and Kierkegaard; postmodernists).” – Hicks.

    CHOMSKY IS THE ONLY LEFT PHILOSOPHER
    Because he has mastered the art of using untrue language.  That is his contribution to the new religion of Postmodernism. He invented linguistic tricks that could deceive human beings.

    Cheers
    Curt.

    https://www.quora.com/Can-Socialism-Marxism-Communism-work-without-the-forced-coercion-of-the-productive-and-the-abrogation-of-private-property

  • Can Socialism/marxism/communism Work Without The Forced Coercion Of The Productive And The Abrogation Of Private Property?

    You are getting terrible answers here, and your question is a bit confusing. So lets clarify terms a bit first, and see if we can get you a decent response:

    1) Socialism is defined as the state ownership of property, and central management of production and distribution.

    2) Communism is the absence of private property.

    Which is why your question seems odd. Instead I think  you mean ‘socialistic’ which is what we have in westen democracies today:

    3) Democratic redistributive socialism is private control of property with heavy progressive taxation of profits. This is what we do in most countries today. It preserves both the ability of individuals to conduct economic calculation and the incentives necessary for them to act in concert to fulfill the desires of others for purely selfish reasons.  THe general argument is predicated on the idea of Pareto Efficiency: that you can take something from someone and give it to something else, as long as it does not make him worse off.  Which in political terms means that the individual does not lose his incentive to produce at the same level as he does prior to the theft of his property by the government for redistribution to others.   The logic of this is that for businesses to grow and expand, consumers must have money to spend and that more additional money is made when they spend it, and so, at least in the end result, everyone is always getting better over time.  … I will not follow the entire economic cycle here but in theory and practice, to a limited extent, it is not a bad idea even if it feels immoral to many of us.

    WHY THE SOCIALIST NON-ECONOMY DOES NOT WORK

    1) Prices are an information system that tells people what they need to do to satisfy the needs of others.

    2) Without prices it is impossible for humans to plan the production of complex goods.

    3) Without prices people cannot have the information needed to have the incentives to engage in productive activity.

    4) any attempt to use computers and static means of production would be forced in to autarkic production (a need to be totally self sustaining) by relative decrease in productivity, followed by constant impoverishment (See Cuba).

    It does not work outside of the family, and only works within the family, because of parental dictatorship, and our instincts for consanguineous cooperation and care-taking.

    The world has abandoned both communism and socialism, and has assumed highly redistributive consumer capitalism   Which is ‘socialistic’ but not technically socialist.  This maintains prices, and incentives, and the ability to plan complex production while taking as much profit as possible from producers without destroying incentives.

    It appears that outside of the west, most countries have or will, adopt totalitarian consumer capitalism, which in practice, in China for example, is an oligarchy running major state industries and finance, and redistribution in the form of easy credit and public services to ‘everyone else’.   This seems to be the pattern. It is not any different from what we have in the USA,  it’s just more obvious.

    But no, since communism is the abandonment of private property, no it is not possible, ever, under any circumstance, which is why it’s been abandoned.

    Socialism cannot exist either because it is not possible for people to operate an economy without money, prices and property, becasue neigher economic calculation nor incentives can exist.

    But that has not stopped the desire for it.  Any more than people have stopped the desire for the absurdity of divinities and afterlife.  These ideas are a religious need, a spiritual need, in many people.  SO this is why they have turned to the religion of Postmodernism as the newest reformation of socialism.

    POSTMODERNISM

    In response to the total failure of the Communist and Socialist agendas, both in theory and in practice, most of the left intellectuals have adopted Postmodernism which is where the idea that

    Forgive the long quote here in exchange for its value:

    “In postmodern discourse, truth is rejected explicitly and consistency can be a rare phenomenon. Consider the following pairs of claims.

    1) On the one hand, all truth is relative; on the other hand, postmodernism tells it like it really is.

    2) On the one hand, all cultures are equally deserving of respect; on the other, Western culture is uniquely destructive and bad.

    3) Values are subjective—but sexism and racism are really evil.

    4) Technology is bad and destructive—and it is unfair that some people have more technology than others.

    5) Tolerance is good and dominance is bad—but when postmodernists come to power, political correctness follows.

    There is a common pattern here: Subjectivism and relativism in one breath, dogmatic absolutism in the next.  Postmodernists are well aware of the contradictions—especially since their opponents relish pointing them out at every opportunity.

    They say that the West is deeply sexist, but they know very well that Western women were the first to get the vote, contractual rights, and the opportunities that most women in the world are still without.

    They say that Western capitalist countries are cruel to their poorer members, subjugating them and getting rich off them, but they know very well that the poor in the West are far richer than the poor anywhere else, both in terms of material assets and the opportunities to improve their condition.

    Postmodernism is therefore first a political movement, and a brand of politics that has only lately come to relativism.” – Stephen Hicks, Explaining Postmodernism (2004)


    COMMUNISM->SOCIALISM ->POSTMODERNISM ARE RELIGIONS

    “Both religion and socialism started with a comprehensive vision that they believed to be true but not based on reason (various prophets; Rousseau Both visions were then challenged by visions based on rational epistemologies (early naturalist critics of religion; early liberal critics of socialism). Both religion and socialism responded by saying that they could satisfy the criteria of reason (natural theology; scientific socialism). Both religion and socialism then ran into serious problems of logic and evidence (Hume’s attacks on natural theology; Mises’s and Hayek’s attacks on socialist calculation). Both then responded in turn by attacking reality and reason (Kant and Kierkegaard; postmodernists).” – Hicks.

    CHOMSKY IS THE ONLY LEFT PHILOSOPHER
    Because he has mastered the art of using untrue language.  That is his contribution to the new religion of Postmodernism. He invented linguistic tricks that could deceive human beings.

    Cheers
    Curt.

    https://www.quora.com/Can-Socialism-Marxism-Communism-work-without-the-forced-coercion-of-the-productive-and-the-abrogation-of-private-property