RATES OF DEPRECIATION
I write a great deal about this subject, but some pictures do the subject greater justice.
Source date (UTC): 2013-05-17 02:56:00 UTC
RATES OF DEPRECIATION
I write a great deal about this subject, but some pictures do the subject greater justice.
Source date (UTC): 2013-05-17 02:56:00 UTC
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10044456/China-may-not-overtake-America-this-century-after-all.htmlON CHINA
You know, I tend to look at really boring things like demographics, education, cultural values (Trust, Truth, Corruption), and the complexity of the products produced rather than the high variability of financial activity. Most of this stuff falls into the long wave hypothesis, which in my opinion is a variation on the Generations hypothesis.
That’s why I was right about china’s growth path even though I was wrong about how long that they could hold it together. I said 2010, but clearly I didn’t understand their ability to keep pumping money into the economy well enough. Or maybe I misunderstood the value of china as a safer-haven during the crisis. I don’t know. The medium term isn’t my specialty – the long term is.
That said, there is no way china gets out of the middle income trap. Velocity is impressive, and I certainly understand what they’re trying to do. But no way. Too many other problems.
But maybe I should hedge that a bit. Sure, there is no way that they avoid having the middle income problem. That isn’t to say that unlike other smaller countries with less control, that they can’t work out of it with levers that most other countries couldn’t use.
Authoritarian governments can (a) force literacy (b) force spending into the economy and even (c) control birth rates. They can also (d) brutally crack down on corruption, (e) totally destroy the oligarchs without also tearing the country apart. What I don’t want to see them to is what most countries with less control might do (f) externalize the internal conflict through aggressive military expansion. Russia for example, cannot fix its military culture, or its alcohol culture, despite the fact that they’re closely related.
India can’t do it because india lacks the central power structure to overcome corruption – the red army is always there and happy to use its power. In india they dont’ have that power, and have to achieve it organically – and slowly, if at all. (I wish our army was as dedicated to the constitution as it is to the idea of civilian leadership. The army is more reliable than the courts.)
I’m just as impressed with recent data as everyone else is. But I don’t have a handle on the state of affairs well enough to look for contrarian positions. And I’m pretty skeptical that we have enough momentum to insulate ourselves from other possible shocks. (Although, those of us who have been studying international politics long enough probably realize that the speed of communication and information
Source date (UTC): 2013-05-09 09:22:00 UTC
https://www.quora.com/Is-it-possible-to-quantify-work-experience
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/04/we-are-essentially-rewriting-economic-history.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FKupd+(Economist’s+View)FINALLY: REWRITING ECONOMIC HISTORY TO INCLUDE R&D.
Finally. FInally we’re getting our economic data updated. Now, if they’d just do the same with household income data, we might have a worthwhile set of data to work from.
Source date (UTC): 2013-04-22 07:16:00 UTC
“THE PROFITABILITY OF DAYDREAMING WITH REASON”
QUESTION VIA EMAIL
“Curt, how do you write all this stuff during the day? And still get work done?”
MY ANSWER
We all screw-off differently. When I’m working, I focus on some problem until I am not in the ‘flow’ — which means, working by effortless free association. Then I take fifteen or twenty minutes to eat a piece of fruit, have a cup of coffe, look out the window, walk across the room, or visit a variety of economics blogs, facebook groups, Quora, my web site’s draft pages, SSRN, whatever stack of books I have on the table, and whatever, and I let myself react to whatever it is that interests me, and I write about it.
Then, when that’s done, after my short term memory has changed contexts, I go back to whatever I was working on, and keep going with renewed interest both conscious and subconscious, letting my short term memory do it’s work of free association for me. (This is the secret to all creativity.)
In this way, I’m never really ‘working’ in the sense that most people mean it. I’m daydreaming and writing down the content of my dreams. It takes a very long time to develop this habit, which is why most writers and programmers will tell you ‘just write’, and most artists will tell you ‘just make work’. Reason is actually a pretty weak property of the human mind. If you can teach yourself to daydream (intuit) something useful, then it isn’t work. It’s just habit and its effortless – like watching a campfire, or boats on the horizon. And when that happens, you end up chasing your feelings rather than fighting to suppress your feelings. Discipline is a function of reason. Creativity is a function of intuition.
I write software, proposals, arguments, and analytical philosophy by daydreaming. Seriously. The entire skill is just to teach yourself to type fast enough that you can narrate your dreams.
I do not think in words. It’s a very visual process. I feel logic the way most people feel space, or emotions. I’ve just become adept at becoming an observer of those feelings and intuitions, and capturing them. Editing’s the hard part. That’s work. I don’t have much patience for real work. lol.
The byproduct of daydreaming as a profession, is that you can literally work eighteen hours a day, because you can’t imagine doing anything more wonderful than daydreaming for a living.
The mind is just an enormous volume of memory with a few primitive instincts. Fill your short term memory with stuff. Let it do it’s job. It helps a whole lot if you like the stuff you fill your memory with. And you can only make money at filling your memory with things that are scarce, because only those things that are scarce are things that are valuable. It doesn’t do much good to fill your head with pop music, and gossip, it’s just easy to acquire. So the trick is to fill your head, constantly, with something that is interesting but rare.
Marginal differences in intelligence simply make it easier to acquire increasingly scarce information. Because marginal differences in the intelligence necessary to produces scarce information are rare.
There isn’t much mystery to man really. We’re pretty simple. It’s just that every other creature we know of has to evolve by dying or breeding and incorporating that knowledge into genes. We have the ability to incorporate it into memory. Both serve the same purpose.
Source date (UTC): 2013-04-10 08:05:00 UTC
https://www.quora.com/Despite-the-obvious-differences-in-cultural-work-ethic-between-American-and-Chinese-workers-why-has-America-remained-the-most-productive-nation-per-worker-in-the-world
CELEBRATION!
We have left the building for the night.
We finished the last sprint on the new UI features, and the pricing system, and have started on the incredibly complex task of resource management – a difficult problem that all Agencies and Consultancies face. And we have absolutely the best solution on the market – if you have to manage a lot of TRAFFIC in production work. And that’s before we even talk about having tickets, work orders, production, agile and WBS all in the same product .
So we are going to celebrate.
Actually, I had to tell the guys that no, I would not fly to Istanbul tonight and come back in tatters on Monday. We deserve a celebration. But my body can’t take that kind of insanity right now. I called them on age. These guys are almost half my age. So I asked for mercy. 🙂
They were merciful but only to the extent that we must plan a party trip to L’viv.
Source date (UTC): 2013-04-03 13:03:00 UTC
INEPTOCRACY can only exist as a Kleptocracy.
ARISTOCRACY can only exist as Meritocracy.
ECONOMICS requires these statements be true.
In agrarian societies, entire families struggle to produce goods so that they can participate in the market. In post industrial societies, declining numbers of people participate in the market, and the majority of people actively seek to avoid the market at all costs: through salaried employment, unionization, government work, redistribution schemes, and work at charities. Very few people participate in the market today. And this is the preference for all of us. We are natural rent seekers and free riders. It is unnatural to want to participate in the competitive market.
Liberty is the desire of the few willing to participate in the market.
Freedom has been intentionally redefined by progressives as a freedom from nature rather than freedom from constraint by man.
Democracy is rule by the worst.
Source date (UTC): 2013-03-31 06:29:00 UTC
https://www.quora.com/Can-Socialism-Marxism-Communism-work-without-the-forced-coercion-of-the-productive-and-the-abrogation-of-private-property
https://www.quora.com/Can-Socialism-Marxism-Communism-work-without-the-forced-coercion-of-the-productive-and-the-abrogation-of-private-property