Theme: Productivity

ARGUMENTS AGAINST UBI
1) Hostility between productive and unproductive segments of society. If productive people feel they are being excessively burdened to support others, social tensions could rise. Some might leave for countries without UBI. And the social cohesion risks exacerbating rather than ameliorating. (I would certainly leave the country and take my companies with me if it occurred.)

2) Leisure activity justification for low income people on the dole mean they will not gain work experience and worse, they will justify it by creating even more ‘status’ signals promoting idleness and attention seeking instead, continuing the destruction of the (white) lower classes we have seen due to ‘ghetto’ culture expansion.

3) The same problem with minimum wage: the loss of incentive to expand ability and responsiblity and income creating the low income trap. This will be worse as the economy continues to lose competitiveness only made possible by our control of world reserve currency and military capacity to police world free trade. THe USA must withdraw from policing world trade and is doing so. The USA is using economic warfare to constrain hostile competitors. But these strategies will protect American economic advantage, especially reserve currency status, and military dominance only for a short period of time. We are currently hoping that our economic warfare will collapse the four remaining agrarian empires and complete the postwar strategy of creating a planet of nation states and relatively free trade. If this strategy fails, americans will rapidly become as poor as europeans. And europeans no longer can export defense, political,and trade costs to the USA.

4) Immigration incentives will vastly accelerate just when the present wave of automation drives more people out of the workforce expanding the lower middle and upper proletarian classes that had a temporary advantage between the rise of the industrial revolution, the postwar economic advantage, the computer revolution, and the expansion of those many white collar jobs is just about to evaporate (which is not considered in the studies of workforce participation collapse that are currently published.)

5) Asymmetric reproduction incentives – “white,asian, ashkenazi” cultures require high investment parenting. Cities suppress reproduction but largely for those who rely on high invsetment parenting. Convrersely both factors accelerate reproduction of lower class low investment parenting populations, which will only accelerate under UBI.

6) Estimates of UBI’s inflationary impact vary, but most suggest it would be substantial, especially for housing and other inelastic goods. Rents and home prices would likely absorb much of the UBI. Some estimates suggest additional inflation could be 3-5% or more – and inflation that negates much of UBI’s benefit. In effect, UBI would function as a massive upward redistribution of wealth.

7) Survival UBI estimates range from around $12k to $20k per person annually in the US. At $12k for 330M people, that’s ~$4T per year, or around 20% of GDP – doubling total tax revenue from a much smaller taxable base concentrating taxes already carried by the people most likely and able to flee the country. It would profoundly distort labor markets, business incentives, and more in ways that are concerning and difficult to predict. UBI this large would be massively disruptive economically.

8) Estimates of workforce dropout from UBI range from 5% to 30% depending on the study & amount. A 20% reduction in labor participation is likely under a full-scale UBI. This would significantly reduce productivity & economic output. The labor force participation rate is already only 61%. The aging of the population over the next decades will make it worse. The decline in IQ given the asymmetry of reproduction between races and classes will amplify the shortage of IQ in the USA only sustaining by immigration from East Asia, Europe, and India’s upper castes, which would come to an end as competitiveness declined. This means a permanent loss of economic advantage and eventually the dollar to countries with larger populations with higher IQ ratios.

9) Crime and social dysfunction from people no longer working in formal jobs is another serious concern with UBI. Rates of substance abuse, mental health issues, domestic violence, and crime – all idle hands make ill and crime will rise with unemployment. Even with some offsetting positive UBI effects, idle time often brews problems. Funding productive work (as in #5) and social programs would likely do more to fight crime than UBI.

INSTEAD:
10) Instead, paying people for productive work as under the WPA an to improve public goods would be much better than pure UBI. Infrastructure, education, healthcare, community programs, etc. are all chronically underfunded and could benefit enormously from some of the funds and labor that a UBI would absorb unproductively. The WPA model of creating socially valuable employment is promising.

That’s the tip of the iceberg.

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