Theme: Measurement

  • Our GDP FIgures are relatively meaningless and most economists understand that i

    Our GDP FIgures are relatively meaningless and most economists understand that it’s just ‘best we can do’ as a global approximate set of weights and measures.

    Now, for forty years or so I”ve been complaining about the Accounting profession because between lenders and the government, and standard accounting practices, ‘information is laundered from the money’ as it passes through the organization. And the reason is that its more work to ‘account properly’, and more work to find errors if you do account properly.

    So I want a cash, operating, financial(asset changes), ebitda, and interest, taxes, and finally net representation of any business so that I don’t have to deconstruct it myself. And I want to see P&L’s and Balance sheets monthly so that I don’t have to have the memory of an elephant. (in services I want numbers weekly). We’ve (my team) generally works on a six week window so that we react quickly. Some companies can’t put their numbers out within that time. (I built software so that I see everything in real time. Something that’sthe envy of any ceo in any business.)

    Now, for the public sector, it’s both a matter of laundering information from money (and laundering money), but worse, we don’t really keep a balance sheet. And if we did we don’t include the CAPITAL of every kind on it. Which would include every kind of human capital, resource capital, infrastructure capital, and every other demonstrated interest.

    Now, we should separate strategic industries from non. And production from non. etc, so that we know when we are losing production capacity and shifting it to financial capacity, and creating an economic imbalance.

    And just as in business, moving assets around can mask losses, in public sector accounting, not only is debt a problem but BURNING DOWN CAPITAL is an extraordinary problem.

    Now, you don’t know this but our organization’s software will eventually do this. But that’s going to take millions more investment to do it.

    Why would a government resist it?

    That much transparency prevents lying.


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-07 22:52:47 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633239297733058562

  • Like I said. Basic econ. 101. I understand ‘hidden’ causality in financial syste

    Like I said.
    Basic econ. 101.
    I understand ‘hidden’ causality in financial systems because the paradigm and vocabulary are subject to the same problems of all economic transactions.
    As far as I. know I’m still the first person to produce an AI for legal arguments, and I did it in the late 80’s. We melted printers with it. And overwhelmed courts with it.
    I’m still trying to figure out what argument you’re making and all I see is the typical problem of each generation thinking it’s invented something that was invented two generation before, and giving it a new name.
    There are always possible means of discovering commensurability despite unknown causality. We do it all the time. All mathematics is statistical at some level (approximate).
    I’m still not seeing what you’re trying to argue other than a different language for the process of buttering toast. 😉

    I’m not closed to some idea.
    I just keep seeing you make the same claim that we’ve know for a century, and is the reason we need different logics.


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-02 20:35:41 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631392855032733723

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631368949529993219

  • “Believable outputs are not believable because their contents are true of factua

    -“Believable outputs are not believable because their contents are true of factual. They are believable because they emulate grammar”–

    Trying to science that:

    The contents of speech or written speech is perceived as non-predictive (false) because of not surviving tests of consistency (inconsistency of), or possibly-true because of survival of consistency of: predictions from identity, consistency, possibility, correspondence, rationality, reciprocity, or coherence against existing episodic memory.

    The contents of speech or written speech are perceived as:
    False, because the sequence of phonemes or words produces continuous recursive disambiguation insufficient for survival (as above)
    Or;
    Possibly true, because the sequence of phonemes or words produces continuous recursive disambiguation sufficient for survival (as above).

    The brain predicts consistency. That’s all it does. From the cells at the back of our eyes, to the visual cortex, through disambiguation by the dorsal and lateral cortex, into the hippocampal system of episodic formation, to the auto-association of prior episodes, and the competitive sequences of those episodes, to the most concentrated effort of the frontal cortex to direct recursive searching, stacking the process as open pathways, and then directing attention to competing pathways, until we succeed or fail and start over at some point again.

    So translating (sciencing):

    -“They are believable because they emulate grammar”-

    I can guess, is attempting to mean, that grammar( rules of continuous recursive disambiguation in a language and its paradigms, vocabulary and logic) …. what?

    In the context of LLM’s that MIGHT mean that the marginal difference between sentence compositions will tend toward marginally indifferent framing. Those marginally indifferent framing that tend to converge together function as an adversarial system of competition for identity, consistency, coherence, etc?

    Assuming the majority of marginally indifferent sentence compositions produce a probability distribution, then the marginally DIFFERENT sentence compositions contain associations that provide a domain of relations where we might investigate error (and tune the results).

    This means the human composers of the source speech and text have determined a minimum disambiguation necessary for unambiguous communication at least within a given context.

    This doesn’t tell us that the humans are lying, and often the majority are lying, or otherwise engaged in ignorance, error, bias, and deciet. Which is why the source data is limited.

    So AFAIK, by the ‘gammar’ doesn’t tell us much.

    -FIN-


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-02 20:27:50 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631390883181371395

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631384183770587154

  • Let me give you an idea. CARDINAL: Positional names, ordinal logic, scale indepe

    Let me give you an idea.

    CARDINAL: Positional names, ordinal logic, scale independence context independence, and internally commensurable.

    ORDINAL: Qualitative names, ordinal logic, scale and context dependence, intersectionally commensurable.

    TRIANGULAR: Qualitative names,…


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-02 18:25:01 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631359975309148160

    Reply addressees: @Will_Benge @Lord__Sousa @TyrantsMuse @johnslygore @TheAutistocrat @MartianHoplite @bryanbrey @LukeWeinhagen @ThruTheHayes @NoahRevoy @Turbo_Flux @InTruthVictori1 @Psyche_OS

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631358664375427072

  • Why? Because mathematical reducibility is narrow, and afterward we can only redu

    Why? Because mathematical reducibility is narrow, and afterward we can only reduce to ordinality, and from ordinality to adversity.

    This is economics 101.


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-02 17:29:36 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631346026471727115

    Reply addressees: @TyrantsMuse @TheAutistocrat @NoahRevoy @Lord__Sousa @johnslygore @MartianHoplite @bryanbrey @LukeWeinhagen @ThruTheHayes @Turbo_Flux @InTruthVictori1 @Psyche_OS

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631309382859337728

  • If you can’t describe a term in operational (computational) terms, you can’t dem

    If you can’t describe a term in operational (computational) terms, you can’t demonstrate you comprehend it, and aren’t engaging in the pretense of knowledge, or inflation, conflation, obscurantism, or deceit.

    You are using ’cause’ which may cause an effect as different from ‘information’ which may not.

    In other words, there is a difference between information and amplitude necessary to change state.

    This applies in digital, analog, operational, set, and linguistic contexts.


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-02 17:26:20 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631345203519922202

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631321533086826498

  • (Common error we call ‘utils’ in economic pseudoscience. There are no quantities

    (Common error we call ‘utils’ in economic pseudoscience. There are no quantities because there are no constant categories, only qualification by triangulation or what we call ordinalities. We call this bit of sophistry ‘mathiness’.)


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-02 15:01:16 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631308696297914370

    Reply addressees: @TyrantsMuse @TheAutistocrat @NoahRevoy @Lord__Sousa @johnslygore @MartianHoplite @bryanbrey @LukeWeinhagen @ThruTheHayes @Turbo_Flux @InTruthVictori1 @Psyche_OS

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631303935859343361

  • Every international survey I’ve ever seen, from simple, to complex, small to lar

    Every international survey I’ve ever seen, from simple, to complex, small to large, government to private, all produce about the same distribution in the world. Partly for the reasons you suggest. Are Indians more racist than Chinese who are extremely racist? If so, why? The answer is in the competitive circumstances and differences between cultures, and frequency of interactions. Are french more racist? Of course, it’s a problem for them. Are americans less? Well, mostly because it’s JUST race and not as much culture in America. However, when groups come into proximity and there are substantial class differences, producing status conflict, then, you see this behavior


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-01 23:32:37 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631074996129873920

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631071883331346432

  • I wasn’t. And that’s a good reason to increase the N of the survey. Technically

    I wasn’t. And that’s a good reason to increase the N of the survey. Technically speaking we’d need to collect at least 1000 blacks. That said, it’s about proportionate.

    The more interesting question is, do you disagree that about half of black Americans hate white people?


    Source date (UTC): 2023-02-28 19:52:00 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630657086731198482

    Reply addressees: @ThankSolOtt @JMeanypants @ScottAdamsSays

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630656339021012994

  • THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD EXPLAINED SUCCINCTLY No, given the epistemic necessity of

    THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD EXPLAINED SUCCINCTLY
    No, given the epistemic necessity of observation, auto association, ideation, hypothesis, theory, surviving theory, where statements can be undecidable, possibly true, or decidably false, science consists of the discipline of producing testifiable testimony (empiricism) within a domain, using physical and logical instrumentation, and their use in data collection (statistical approximation), use of the epistemic sequence, until by verisimilitude (market survival from intellectual competition) we discover the first principles (irreducible laws) of recombination at that stage of constant relations (disciplines), at which point we can produce a formal operational computational (causal) logic of falsification in that domain (specialization).

    Survival from falsification requires passing tests of 1) realism, 2) naturalism, 3) identity consistency (unambiguity), 4) internal (logical) consistency, 5) operational (possible) consistency 6) external (observable) consistency, 7) rational choice given knowledge in time, 8) reciprocal rational choice, 9) stated limits and full accounting within those limits (full accounting), 10) and coherence with the first principles of the lower order of constant relations and the upper order of constant relations 11) within the limits of warrantability, liability, and resetitutability.

    Now to understand the first principles that are constant at all scales requires understanding ternary logic of the universe, and evolutionary computation of every set of recombinations in the hierarchy of evolutionary complexity that we call the disciplines.

    There are roughly twenty laws of ternary logic of evolutionary computation in that hierarchy, covering all the sciences, both logical(formal), physical, behavioral, and evolutionary, that most people can memorize with a bit of effort.

    It takes about as much effort to learn this scientific method as any other advanced stem degree, and about as much time, for the simple reason that we must overcome our natural cognitive biases more so than as in mathematics we must learn new ones, and it requires knowledge of multiple disciplines.

    It is, in general, unwise to assume I ever assert anything I can’t demonstrate by construction from first principles of the laws of the universe. If I can’t I don’t claim it.

    Thank you for the opportunity to demonstrate the meaning of the word ‘science’, and the scientific method.

    Hopefully, you’ve learned something.

    Cheers


    Source date (UTC): 2023-02-28 17:36:54 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630623088743268369

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630615554326249498