Theme: Measurement

  • “Define your terms. If you can’t define a term operationally, then don’t use it.

    —“Define your terms. If you can’t define a term operationally, then don’t use it. That’s the difference between a scientist, and a story teller.”— Felicity Sharpe


    Source date (UTC): 2017-01-08 17:48:00 UTC

  • Falsehood of the day: ‘Company Value’ 1) MONETARY PRESERVATION OR GROWTH VALUE A

    http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/06/investing/amazon-rules-retail-worth-more-than-almost-everyone/index.htmlSensational Falsehood of the day: ‘Company Value’

    1) MONETARY PRESERVATION OR GROWTH VALUE

    A company share value is meaningless. It’s a popularity contest. And not a meaningful measure of comparison. Most of the time one is investing in *psychology* – market momentum, irrespective of its fundamentals.

    2) INVESTMENT VALUE (DIVIDENDS / APPRECIATION)

    Investing in the dividends and appreciation of the company because of its fundamentals.

    3) OPERATING VALUE (PROFITS)

    A company’s market share, revenue, profit, and trends, are meaningful measures of comparison.

    A company’s PRICE can be determined by a multiple of its revenue and profits in relation to the expected time horizon of returns.

    4) EXIT VALUE

    If owner/management wishes to exit, what can they sell the company for? This is usually a multiple of operating profit discounted by the loss of key management.

    5) ASSET VALUE

    A company’s WORTH is its fixed asset value at liquidation.

    WHY DOES THIS MATTER?

    Because the stock market functions as a savings plan for the country and for the world. So the financial sector looks at companies as a way to move money at low cost to where it will, in aggregate, across their portfolio, mix wins and losses into a profit.

    So Amazon is worth more than sears, macy’s target becasue their revenues and market share are worth more than macy’s and targets.

    Apple on the other hand is a fashion brand that becasue of the iphone could be eradicated quickly. Facebook more so. google less so. Although – the moment you can search by voice and actually get the information you want, the opportunity to advertise will disappear, and the company that succeeds at that will destroy google’s market value.


    Source date (UTC): 2017-01-07 10:07:00 UTC

  • Peter (all), (again, probably epistemologically too technical for this crowd) RE

    Peter (all),

    (again, probably epistemologically too technical for this crowd)

    RE: https://www.facebook.com/peter.boettke/posts/10158213805095389

    IT’S NOT A CASE OF MISINTERPRETATION BUT MISREPRESENTATION, AND IGNORANCE

    There is a difference between:

    (a) misinterpretation and misrepresentation.

    (b) monopoly/authoritarianism(subjective/apriorism/operationalism vs objective/existential/empiricism) and competition(survival from criticism in both apriorism and empiricism)

    (c) scientists(survival from criticism) and ideologues (justificationism as in misesian/rothbardians)

    ASSERTION

    Any and every statement of social science proposed as a truth claim must survive the following forms of criticism, of which AUSTRIAN economist’s operationalism/intuitionism (misnamed ‘methodological individualism’) provides the first INNOVATION in science in over a century.

    1) categorical consistency (identity – non conflation)

    2) logical consistency (internal consistency)

    3) empirical consistency (external correspondence)

    4) existential consistency (operational language/intuitionism/methodological individualism)

    5) reciprocal consistency (objectively moral: productive, fully in formed, warrantied, voluntary transfer, limited to productive externalities)

    6) scope consistency (full accounting, limits, and parsimony – where full accounting includes the difference in opportunity costs: the seen, unseen / intended, unintended / caused, uncaused.)

    That completes the scientific method.

    When a mainstream quantitative (correlative) economist issues his findings, in almost NO case does he test (4)(5)(6), and arguably they rarely test (1). In other words, most mainstream (correlative) economists cherry-pick in order to defend priors and desired measures.

    We succeed at what we measure. We fail at what we don’t.

    WHO IS AT FAULT

    1) The Mises Institute has polluted the informational commons for 30 years, if for no other reason than they are philosophically sophomoric to the last man. Their propagandizing by making innovative use of the internet to capture interest has created large numbers of activists who lack breadth of knowledge necessary to judge (test) the ideology they absorb.

    2) While the Christian Austrians (austrians proper) maintained a metaphysical (subconscious) accounting of the challenge of organizing the commons (an aristocratic bias), many if not all of the Cosmopolitan Austrians (jewish Austrians), like the Rousseau, ignored the cost of organizing the commons, under the pretense that man was oppressed – rather than domesticated by the aristocracy (like any other animal) through the use of war, governance, law, and policy. Yes, domesticating man was profitable. It continues to be. That does not mean man was oppressed if it means forcing him into the market and to respect life, liberty, and property.

    3) Academic Practitioners of operationalism / intuitionism / methodological-individualism AND empirical observation are almost equally philosophically sophomoric in their understanding of the innovation of the Austrian method, as the first instance of operationalism/intuitionism discovered in ANY of the sciences.

    This is because (a) philosophers were distracted by the pseudoscientific effort of trying to make analytic philosophy of language into a ‘science’. (b) Popper/Kuhn failed to complete the scientific method sufficiently to explain why it worked so successfully, and therefore how to apply it to adaptive systems (social science), and while Hayek correctly identified information as the model we should study in social science, and correctly identified the common natural law as the means of regulating that information, he failed to learn from Simmel, Weber and Mises, as well as Brouwer and Bridgman how the scientific method could be captured in law and used to regulate that information. (c) the Incentive to take advantage of fiat currency (stock in the state’s revenue and income potential) was so great that economists were as equally distracted by the use of it to obtain legitimacy and influence as were philosophers distracted by the philosophy of language to obtain legitimacy and influence.

    WHY DOES AUSTRIAN ECON MATTER?

    1) because operationalism is more important in social science than physical science, and physical science more important than in mathematics, for the simple reason that the difference between the methods of observation and survival (proof/test/criticism) are trivial in mathematics, limited in physical science, and expansive in social and cognitive science.

    2) because Austrians discovered operationalism in economics where it is most important of all sciences other than perhaps psychology.

    3) because by discovering operationalism in economics, Austrians largely completed the scientific method – despite failing to grasp that they had done so.

    KNOWING THIS, HOW DO WE REPOSITION AUSTRIAN ECON?

    1) By using both empirical and operational methods, Austrian econ’s are engaged in social science: the study of human cooperation those markets for reproduction, production of private goods and services and information, production of common goods, services, and information, and production of competition against other groups (group evolutionary strategy). THEY PRACTICE SCIENCE.

    2) By attempting to correct accumulated misinformation in the economy and assist networks of sustainable specialization and trade in adaptation, Chicago (freshwater) economists are attempting to (a)remain within rule of natural law (social science) and preserving the individual’s (b) ability to forecast and plan, (c) protection from retroactive legislation (policy) required by natural law. THEY PRACTICE MORAL SCIENCE.

    3) By attempting to maximize consumption, mainstream economists ignore social science, violate natural law, and insert disinformation into the economy to the point where disinformation and malincentives accumulate on longer time horizons at greater scale, than individuals, organizations, the economy, the nation, and the civilization can adapt to. THEY PRACTICE DECEITFUL, IMMORAL, PSEUDOSCIENCE.

    WHERE CAN YOU LEARN MORE ABOUT AUSTRIAN ECON’S PLACE IN HISTORY?

    This post contains pointers to a series of articles that position Menger/Mises and their discovery in intellectual history as part of the movement of late 19th and early 20th century that failed, and allowed us to be subject to 100 years of social pseudoscience.

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/scientific.praxeology/permalink/750994611656577/

    Curt Doolittle

    The Propertarian Institute

    Kiev, Ukraine


    Source date (UTC): 2017-01-07 09:54:00 UTC

  • Rational != Rationalism. SERIES: REASON Imaginable > Reasonable > Rational > Rat

    Rational != Rationalism.

    SERIES: REASON

    Imaginable > Reasonable > Rational > Rationalism > Logical > Mathematical > Identitarian: the sequence of testing methods of internal consistency.

    SERIES: SCIENCE

    While they say it poorly, science makes use of the tests of:

    > internal consistency (logical)

    > external consistency (empirical repeatability)

    > existential consistency (operational definitions)

    > scope consistency (full accounting, limits, parsimony)(falsification)

    Social science should add:

    > reciprocal consistency (moral)

    So just as we can say that there exists a discipline called mathematics in which we test axiomatic systems consisting of the dimensions {identity(naming), number(arith.), ratio(math), distance(space), and movement (calculus)}, and just as there is a means by which we test rational systems{(see above)}, we can also say that there exists a discipline called truth, which we call ‘science’ that tests existential rather than axiomatic dimensions{(see above)}.

    So science exists as the largest test of reality (causal relations).

    Rationalism exists as a test only of internal verbal consistency (semantic relations).

    Logic exists as a test of internal consistency (set relations).

    And mathematics exists only as a test of relational consistency (constant relations).

    So yes, science exists just as mathematics, logic, and rationalism do.

    And science is to all other disciplines as calculus is to arithmetic: an increase in the dimensions tested by the method.

    TRUTH

    The truth of a proposition is permanently uncertain in science, although, while knowable, the physical sciences we do not know the first principles of the universe, meaning the base entities, operations and limits of the universe. We can test the operations of humans by subjective sympathy – which is where mises went wrong. So we can test even if we cannot yet quantify, the limits of human thought instrumentally. We can test social science under the test of reciprocity (productive, fully informed, voluntary exchange, limited to productive externalities). So we can test the physical, personal, and social sciences using the SERIES I listed above.

    Truth = a statement that survives.

    Testimony = testimony that survives.

    Only people can testify that they speak truthfully.

    They cannot know they speak the truth – in the sense of most parsimonious description possible – they can only know that they have performed due diligence against the series above (science), and that their utterance has survived those tests.

    SPECIFICS

    —“The truth value here is not placed on a conclusion, but on a method.”—

    The warranty against falsehood is placed upon survival of tests of due diligence. To make the statement ‘truth value’ is a categorical error similar to applying probability to asymmetric distributions (fat tails). you cannot calculate a probability from an unknown scope. Just as you a bell curve is always false, a probability is alway false, and a truth statement is always false. We can know we speak truthfully but we cannot know we speak the truth, nor can we quantify truth.

    BLAME

    we evolved reason from the common law, aristotelian reason from advances in the common law, and empiricism from advances in the common law. Because the law involved ‘skin in the game’ between aristocratic warriors and their staff, servants, and protectorate, it could not so easily be subverted by excuse making as could religious and philosophical reasoning.

    Moral sentiments evolved out of the needs of cooperation, and so did moral rules. Law evolved to codify moral rules. If one adhered to religious, moral, or legal rules, one can be forgiven for error. This is the source of JUSTIFICATIONARY reasoning.

    But that reasoning is precisely what delayed the development of science, which does not depend upon prior positive assertions, but the discovery of truth propositions by trial and error, by a relentless evolutionary increase in precision.

    The error you are making in your arguments is called ‘justificationism’. It went out with the end of the 19th century.

    There is another error you are making that went out with the 19th century, and that is that I suspect you confuse proof (possibility) with truth (causality). A proof != Truth. We use the term ‘true’ allegorically, and that is all

    There is yet another error you make and that is to resort to internal consistency instead of expanding into empiricism and then falling back to internal consistency only after you have failed to test the higher standard. This is actually a form of deception commonly employed – although in your case I suspect its merely ignorance and error.

    —“Yes, but then there can not be really a definition of the Outcome Ethics, because the knowledge how to bring the mentioned outcomes would have to be a part of the definition.”—

    But that’s not really true, now is it.

    If we possess the knowledge to test outcomes, then we may make use of outcome ethics.

    If we do not we may resort to rule ethics.

    If we do not have rules we may resort to virtue ethics.

    If we do not have a virtue ethic we can resort to moral introspection.

    Morality is serves as a form of law under which we do not hold one another accountable for our errors if we act according to those rules.

    We do not hold children, the young, adults, and non specialists for the ethics required of those with specialized knowledge.

    Conversely we DO hold accountable those with specialized knowledge in areas of specialized knowledge.

    So one of the tests of honesty (truthfulness) is whether one uses both the situational information available to him, and the ethical systems available to him, given his knowledge of a particular discipline.

    Conversely we treat as dishonest those who use lower standards of ethics, lower methods of reasoning, that make use of less information, as a means of justifying their arguments rather than eliminating the risk to others by testing at the limits of one’s knowledge.

    Furthermore, this is why the left won: we held to the lie that men merely err. The left succeeded by the construction of convincing lies.

    Rothbard certainly constructed as convincing a set of lies as did marx and the neocons.


    Source date (UTC): 2017-01-02 20:03:00 UTC

  • More Thoughts on Operationalism

    MORE OPERATIONALISM (economics, philosophy) I’ve been working with framing the debate against naive mathematics as similar to the debate against naive empiricism, because economics makes use of both naive empiricism and naive mathematics.

    For a very long time – since at least the greeks – we have advanced the fallacy that the universe is written in mathematical language. And we have advanced the fallacy that mathematics provides the gold standard by which to test our observations and theories. But, skipping ahead a bit, mathematics consists of a set of operations with which we maintain constant relations, and where we describe aggregates OF UNDERLYING OPERATIONS (transformations), without knowing the constitution of those underlying operations. So: 4) Conceptually identifiable phenomenon. 3) Empirically measurable phenomenon. 2) Mathematical description of patterns of those phenomenon. 1) Operational construction of those phenomenon. 0) Information In much of human inquiry we have been incorrectly categorizing the problem as the discovery of patterns we observe, rather than the problem of operations that constitute them. 0) Information 1) Operations 2) Mathematics 3) Computers 4) “Recipes” 5) “Language” Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev Ukraine.
  • More Thoughts on Operationalism

    MORE OPERATIONALISM (economics, philosophy) I’ve been working with framing the debate against naive mathematics as similar to the debate against naive empiricism, because economics makes use of both naive empiricism and naive mathematics.

    For a very long time – since at least the greeks – we have advanced the fallacy that the universe is written in mathematical language. And we have advanced the fallacy that mathematics provides the gold standard by which to test our observations and theories. But, skipping ahead a bit, mathematics consists of a set of operations with which we maintain constant relations, and where we describe aggregates OF UNDERLYING OPERATIONS (transformations), without knowing the constitution of those underlying operations. So: 4) Conceptually identifiable phenomenon. 3) Empirically measurable phenomenon. 2) Mathematical description of patterns of those phenomenon. 1) Operational construction of those phenomenon. 0) Information In much of human inquiry we have been incorrectly categorizing the problem as the discovery of patterns we observe, rather than the problem of operations that constitute them. 0) Information 1) Operations 2) Mathematics 3) Computers 4) “Recipes” 5) “Language” Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev Ukraine.
  • (Listening to google’s new head of AI thinking…. actually this whole industry

    (Listening to google’s new head of AI thinking…. actually this whole industry is still in the dark ages. There is a vast difference between the identifications of symbols and their relations, and the operations that are possible with symbols. I don’t have time to comment on every field, but PROPERTARIANISM HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO DO SO.)


    Source date (UTC): 2016-12-28 14:08:00 UTC

  • More Operationalism

    (economics, philosophy) I’ve been working with framing the debate against naive mathematics as similar to the debate against naive empiricism, because economics makes use of both naive empiricism and naive mathematics. For a very long time – since at least the greeks – we have advanced the fallacy that the universe is written in mathematical language. And we have advanced the fallacy that mathematics provides the gold standard by which to test our observations and theories. But, skipping ahead a bit, mathematics consists of a set of operations with which we maintain constant relations, and where we describe aggregates OF UNDERLYING OPERATIONS (transformations), without knowing the constitution of those underlying operations. So: 4) Conceptually identifiable phenomenon. 3) Empirically measurable phenomenon. 2) Mathematical description of patterns of those phenomenon. 1) Operational construction of those phenomenon. 0) Information In much of human inquiry we have been incorrectly categorizing the problem as the discovery of patterns we observe, rather than the problem of operations that constitute them. 0) Information 1) Operations 2) Mathematics 3) Computers 4) “Recipes” 5) “Language” Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev Ukraine.

  • More Operationalism

    (economics, philosophy) I’ve been working with framing the debate against naive mathematics as similar to the debate against naive empiricism, because economics makes use of both naive empiricism and naive mathematics. For a very long time – since at least the greeks – we have advanced the fallacy that the universe is written in mathematical language. And we have advanced the fallacy that mathematics provides the gold standard by which to test our observations and theories. But, skipping ahead a bit, mathematics consists of a set of operations with which we maintain constant relations, and where we describe aggregates OF UNDERLYING OPERATIONS (transformations), without knowing the constitution of those underlying operations. So: 4) Conceptually identifiable phenomenon. 3) Empirically measurable phenomenon. 2) Mathematical description of patterns of those phenomenon. 1) Operational construction of those phenomenon. 0) Information In much of human inquiry we have been incorrectly categorizing the problem as the discovery of patterns we observe, rather than the problem of operations that constitute them. 0) Information 1) Operations 2) Mathematics 3) Computers 4) “Recipes” 5) “Language” Curt Doolittle The Propertarian Institute Kiev Ukraine.

  • MORE OPERATIONALISM (economics, philosophy) I’ve been working with framing the d

    MORE OPERATIONALISM

    (economics, philosophy)

    I’ve been working with framing the debate against naive mathematics as similar to the debate against naive empiricism, because economics makes use of both naive empiricism and naive mathematics.

    For a very long time – since at least the greeks – we have advanced the fallacy that the universe is written in mathematical language. And we have advanced the fallacy that mathematics provides the gold standard by which to test our observations and theories.

    But, skipping ahead a bit, mathematics consists of a set of operations with which we maintain constant relations, and where we describe aggregates OF UNDERLYING OPERATIONS (transformations), without knowing the constitution of those underlying operations.

    So:

    4) Conceptually identifiable phenomenon.

    3) Empirically measurable phenomenon.

    2) Mathematical description of patterns of those phenomenon.

    1) Operational construction of those phenomenon.

    0) Information

    In much of human inquiry we have been incorrectly categorizing the problem as the discovery of patterns we observe, rather than the problem of operations that constitute them.

    0) Information

    1) Operations

    2) Mathematics

    3) Computers

    4) “Recipes”

    5) “Language”

    Curt Doolittle

    The Propertarian Institute

    Kiev Ukraine.


    Source date (UTC): 2016-12-27 08:38:00 UTC