Theme: Incentives

JOBS, CS, H1B, AND IMMIGRATION: SCARY NUMBERS

Top H1B Initial Employment Sponsors, 2022:
via: Monsieur le Baron @Mssr_le_Baron

Amazon 6,396
Infosys 3,151
Tata Consultancy Services 2,854
Cognizant 2,521
Google 1,562
Meta Platforms 1,546
HCL 1,260
IBM 1,239
Wipro 1,172
Deloitte Consulting 1,169
Accenture 1,097
Capgemini 1,090
Microsoft 1,008
Apple 930
Intel 877
Ernst & Young 701
Goldman Sachs 529
Qualcomm 524
Tech Mahindra 509
Oracle 491
Citibank 489
McKinsey & Company 481
Pricewaterhouse Coopers 429
JP Morgan Chase 420
Walmart 392
Mindtree 342
Tesla 337
Cisco 326
Eficens 288
Nvidia 284

These *single year* *new hires* now often represent >10% of corporate hires each year for many of these firms.

MY COMMENTS:

So, rounding to the nearest big number that’s 30K H1Bs.
And 72.6% of H1B visas are issued to Indian nationals.

There are 2.19M (soon 3M) CS related jobs in the USA, with (?) an average age of about 40.

What we see is indians replacing americans (yes really). Are indians better educated (we are pulling from americans, and in particular european americans). In fact, we are seeing young immigrants replace established workers at lower salaries in many fields.

POLITICAL JUSTIFICATION
The progressive narrative is that these are s*** jobs that no American man would want anyway.

The “conservative” narrative is that no American is skilled enough to fill them.

WHY?
(first, the data is cr*p)

My data:
The number of CS GRADS from what I can find is about 60,000 for 2021.
The number of CS JOB openings, from what I can find 125,000 computer science
These are the numbers I would expect.

Computer-related jobs are larger in number than computer science jobs so the number is bigger. But even then, only approximately 3.04% of the total U.S. civilian labor force was employed in computer-related roles as of the most recent data available.

Given that whether 2% or 3% it’s a fraction of the work force, you’d think it wouldn’t matter. However, these jobs pay a lot more than most other jobs.

DEMOGRAPHICS
India
India has 1.3+B People. (I think it’s replaced china now as the largest population – because we’re pretty sure chinese numbers are overcounted). While the IQ is only 81, and only 1% of the population has an IQ over 115 (minimum theoretical college STEM ability), that’s 14.3M people to draw from.
Average Age in India? 29. Young.

USA
The USA white (meaning exclusively of european descent) is only 56% of 330M or 184M. While this number should represent the exclusively european it’s still overstated, certainly by . The number is closer to 51-52%) The most common age of whites in U.S. is 58. For minorities, it’s 27.
So again, with a 115 minimum theroetical for STEM ability that’s 19% of the population of 184M is 35M. More than twice the available Indian population.
Howeer, if you want a ticket to wealth in india, you have a narrower set of choices than an american, who may choose from any number of careers by preference rather than maximum income.

BIRTHS
“White” 53% (overstated) 1.9M,
Black 14%, .6M
Hispanic 24%, .8M
Asian 6% .2M

IMMIGRANT POPULATION
This number is bogus. It does not account for the 16M+ Illegals in the USA at present:
–“There were a record 44.8 million immigrants living in the U.S. in 2018, making up 13.7% of the nation’s population. This represents a more than fourfold increase since 1960, when 9.7 million immigrants lived in the U.S., accounting for 5.4% of the total U.S. population.”–
So we have 60M immigrants against a white population of 180M.

THEREFORE?
We don’t have a shortage of people. We have a shortage of people wanting to sit in a cubicle and write code – and that’s very likely because (women in education) we lack the rigor in education necessary to train (especially boys) students for CS related work. (b) immigration is suppressing wages that would provide the incentives, because those jobs are paying less (59k) than they would if the shortage was greater, salaries were highter, and demand for talent was higher. Truth is that CS is not hard at all for the vast majority of jobs out there. We taunt Google and FB etc, but what those companies do isn’t rocket science at all. It’s closer to software plubming.

Search data is unhelpful:
“Data from 2017 recorded the number of computer science US graduates was less than 50,000. This is tragic considering that the same year there were more than 500,000 job openings. (This number is false, becaues it surveys help wnted ads which are multiples of the actual jobs.

“According to How Many Computer Science Graduates Each Year, the roughly 65,000 CS graduates in the U.S. in 2015 represented only about 10% of all STEM graduates.”

“According to New Intel – How Many Software Engineers Are There in 2023? – there are less than 30,000 computer science students who graduate each year.”