Curt Doolittle

Theme: Incentives

  • This is due to the immaturity of the product, and the hype necessary to fund it

    This is due to the immaturity of the product, and the hype necessary to fund it despite it’s low profitability – until it’s mature.

    I’ve been repeating this argument for a couple of months now, but the future of LLMs, is brighter than ever.

    Why?

    There are at least the remaining issues:
    1 – episodic memory,
    2 – associative prediction,
    3 – abstraction,
    4 – solution point wayfinding (real reasoning),
    5 – ethics,
    6 – and decidability.

    We have solved the hardest ones: ethics and decidability. We know how to solve most of the rest of them. The problem isn’t know-how. The problem is the extraordinary costs of those innovations using extant technology rather than neuromorphic hardware.

    Our work, that I know of, is the only solution to revenue production sufficient to cover those costs.

    Cheers
    CD
    Runcible

    http://
    Runcible.com

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-11 01:00:35 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988049180317937789

  • “… thesis is that every AI application startup is likely to be crushed by rapi

    –“… thesis is that every AI application startup is likely to be crushed by rapid expansion of the foundational model providers.”–

    This is true. That doesn’t mean the foundation model providers are the best innovators. Our work is revolutionary in machine decidability and AGI is impossible without it.

    So the market is there, but the challenge of providing the foundation model producers with something they cannot or have not done themselves. In other words the window is narrowing and the difficulty is increasing.

    There are at least the remaining issues: episodic memory, associative prediction, abstraction, solution point wayfinding, ethics, and decidability.

    We have solved the hardest one. We know how to solve most them. The problem isn’t know how. The problem is the extraordinary costs of those innovations using extant rather than neuromorphic hardware.

    Our work, that I know of, is the only solution to revenue production sufficient to cover those costs.

    CD
    Runcible Inc

    http://
    runcible.com

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-11 00:53:39 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988047436657684832

  • THE FOLLY OF YOUNG PEOPLE’S WANT OF SOCIALISM Curt Doolittle argues that true so

    THE FOLLY OF YOUNG PEOPLE’S WANT OF SOCIALISM

    Curt Doolittle argues that true socialism—where the government controls production—sounds appealing but is impossible to achieve.He says that if people really mean “social democracy” like in Europe (which focuses on heavy wealth redistribution rather than owning businesses), it only works under specific conditions:
    – The population must keep growing through high birth rates.
    – The people’s skills and makeup must align with what the modern economy needs to support that growth.

    That’s why Europe will have to cut back on these policies, and the US can’t sustain them either—especially for things like retirement and healthcare in the coming years.

    He criticizes young people pushing for socialism as ignorant “nitwittery.”

    Instead of that, he favors Trump-style reforms:
    – Overhaul global strategies to lower costs.
    – Strengthen the economy to create more jobs and increase self-sufficiency (autarky).
    – Reduce the burden of immigration by only allowing people who meet demographic standards for competitiveness and viability.
    – These young advocates are essentially self-destructive, he claims, because they’re assuming the US and Europe can cling to or revive their post-World War II advantages in strategy, demographics, institutions, science, technology, and economics.

    But those edges were temporary “windfalls” from historical revolutions (like the Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution), which have now spread worldwide and can’t be recaptured.

    In short, pushing for more socialism is like “barking up a dying tree”—it’s a failing, outdated idea.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-09 19:01:39 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987596462293926309

  • It doesn’t exist as money. It only exists as the capacity to influence other hum

    It doesn’t exist as money. It only exists as the capacity to influence other humans to continue to advance science and technology toward musk’s goal to make us independent of earth. and in doing so create incredible jobs with the consequences including spillover science technology, and economic rewards.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-09 07:11:47 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987417819290751165

  • THis is mostly nonsense. There is no evidence that AI is replacing workers. Inst

    THis is mostly nonsense. There is no evidence that AI is replacing workers. Instead, companies overhired during covid and the cost of investment in the POSSIBILITY of AI is forcing cost cutting. It’s the investment in speculation on AI that’s causing layoffs. It’s not that AI can replace jobs.

    Now, in the future, it is very likely that the vast increase in clerical work performed by women in the economy is going to cause an unemployment shock. But that’s years away still.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-08 06:02:33 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1987038008072118417

  • Why isn’t that money the best possible use of it. What will be the cost of his v

    Why isn’t that money the best possible use of it. What will be the cost of his victory? His ideas aren’t possible to implement without catastrophic consequences.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-06 02:28:03 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986259252697305508

  • LAYOFFS ARE PRESS ATTENTION SEEKING NOT CAUSE FYI: it is NOT clear that the job

    LAYOFFS ARE PRESS ATTENTION SEEKING NOT CAUSE
    FYI: it is NOT clear that the job market is being affected by the AIs. Instead, the job market is correcting – it began with musk firing the ‘excess baggage’ at twitter. And this gave all the companies public permission to follow suit without share prices dropping. But tech companies overhired during covid for well understood reasons.

    Instead, and this is true everywhere we look, the companies that are large and in the tech space, that have to invest in AI, are trimming staff to pay for the outrageous overhead cost of the hardware or compute time. Those that aren’t doing so are just following the ‘sentiment’ and the ‘demographics’ and the likelihood of world conflict.

    So that’s what is happening. It’s not ai affecting jobs.
    In fact, all reports show a decline in the use of ai in the workplace. And a general increase in the sense of disappointment.

    I am certain this disappointment is a matter of over-promising when there are hurdles left. Just so they can maintain the hype necessary to attract investment, necessary in turn to pay for the profound losses this investment in AI is producing.

    I hope this helps.
    Curt Diolittle.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-11-03 00:52:42 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985148095441859031

  • Our Hierarchy of Economic Models We divide economics into neural, behavioral, mi

    Our Hierarchy of Economic Models

    We divide economics into neural, behavioral, micro, political, and macro, and evolutionary economics, and everything else a derivative of one of them.
    Neural energy limits define the range of behavioral possibilities.
    Behavioral patterns define the formation and equilibrium of markets.
    Market equilibria define the structure and necessity of political institutions.
    Political institutions define the degree of macroeconomic stability and intertemporal coordination.
    Macroeconomic stability determines a polity’s evolutionary fitness among competing polities.
    Evolutionary feedback selects for institutional and behavioral adaptations that optimize cooperation and resource use.
    Evolutionary outcomes feed back to the neural level through prosperity, nutrition, stress, and selection on cognition, completing the loop of adaptation between biology and civilization.

    • Upward Constraint Flow:
      Neural → Behavioral → Micro → Political → Macro → Evolutionary.
      Each layer’s limits define the possibility space for the next.
    • Downward Selection Flow:
      Evolutionary pressures (war, trade, technology, fertility, migration) act as       filters on macro- and political systems, rewarding adaptive institutions and punishing maladaptive ones.
    • Feedback Closure:
      Successful polities alter global constraints—reshaping markets, institutions, and ultimately the neuro-behavioral ecology of their populations through prosperity, nutrition, and education.
      This closes the evolutionary loop:       neurons → markets → nations → civilizations → neurons.
    1. Neural constraints set the bounds of possible cognition (signal detection, valuation resolution, temporal discounting).
    2. These bounds generate behavioral regularities — risk aversion, time preference, reciprocity bias.
    3. Behavioral regularities, aggregated, produce micro-equilibria (market behaviors).
    4. Micro-equilibria, codified through law and norms, generate political economies.
    5. Political economies, scaled in time and capital, yield macro-dynamics (growth, debt, inflation).
    Each level inherits its constraints from the prior and produces its own incentives for the next.
    • Closure: It ensures all higher claims remain reducible to physically possible processes (no metaphysical free agents).
    • Causality: It keeps every economic claim inside the domain of natural law — energy, time, information, and cooperation.
    • Decidability: It eliminates subjectivist and ideological ambiguity by grounding value in measurable neural operations.
    • Operationality: It allows construction of testable models of preference, learning, and exchange as computational processes.
    • Reciprocity: It reveals that fairness, trust, and reputation are not moral fictions but neural cost-optimization strategies.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-10-31 18:30:06 UTC

    Original post: https://x.com/i/articles/1984327033770688750

  • I would need to see a alternative stable place to invest money with enough econo

    I would need to see a alternative stable place to invest money with enough economic activity and security to provide returns on it..

    Source date (UTC): 2025-10-30 05:08:29 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983762913644179802

  • Adam ( @AdameMedia ) This is an exellent example of people with little understan

    Adam (
    @AdameMedia
    )
    This is an exellent example of people with little understanding of economic foundations failing to grasp the ‘science’ behind their observations.
    1) All Capital is a store of time.
    2) All Credit and Debt are a trade of time.
    3) All Contracts of credit and debt (promises) are agreements over presumed (theoretical) returns on time.
    4) All stock prices constitute anticipated but unrealized returns on time.
    5) All modernity is predicated on this speculation of returns on time.

    There is nothing illogical, foolish, or nefarious about speculating returns on time. The mistake you are making is confusing temporal asset of currency with the inter temporal asset of shared hypotheses of the potential returns on time

    The fact that we use dollars to provide commensurability between two different things is no different from using numbers to compare lengthens or weights or volumes of two different things.

    Doing so is s a cognitive crutch for natural limitations of our human brains.

    ‘AS FOR THE POTENTIAL’

    The truth is you and the author of the original post are simply wrong. I know so because we have already solved hallucination and determinism problems, and my organization has solved truth ethics and possibility. That means the only remaining technical problem is episodic memory for indexing and prediction.After that all ai improvements are simply matters of learning recursively – which is something all of us know how to do. And after that it’s a matter of waiting for neuromorphic hardware instead of compression through matrix mathematics – a solution that will collapse the power consumption issue but is still two decades away (estimated).

    AS FOR THE INCENTIVE
    Given the spectrum of incentives which will be as big a leap as the Industrial Revolution, it is logical to pursue the investment just as it was the space program and the settlement of the west.

    There is nothing odd or extreme or irrational here.

    Source date (UTC): 2025-10-27 16:05:22 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1982841057554645022