Theme: Incentives

  • “I got paid more as an assistant teacher, with no meaningful responsibilities, w

    —“I got paid more as an assistant teacher, with no meaningful responsibilities, working ten months a year, and all the school vacations, than I was paid to run the savings department at over six hundred branches of savings and loan.”— (a friend)
  • “I got paid more as an assistant teacher, with no meaningful responsibilities, w

    —“I got paid more as an assistant teacher, with no meaningful responsibilities, working ten months a year, and all the school vacations, than I was paid to run the savings department at over six hundred branches of savings and loan.”— (a friend)


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-06 06:48:00 UTC

  • In Theory, How Do Innovative New Companies Get Created In A Textbook Socialist Economy?

    You know, I have been working on debunking the pseudoscience in economics – whether under the pretenses of socialist, social democratic, classical liberal, or libertarian dogmas for a couple of decades now. And I have a very hard time grasping how anyone can be literate enough in the subject to ask such a question, and still suggest that socialism is possible ever under any conditions whatsoever.

    I know why people intuit that such a thing is possible (it isn’t), at least it isn’t for more than a few decades, any more than uninsured (unregulated) markets are possible (they aren’t).

    The better the demographics the higher trust the polity the more effective are markets (rule of law) and the worse the demographics, the lower trust the polity, the more effective is command and control (rule by discretion).

    Socialist economies do not innovate because of incentives. In socialist economies people can enact change through access to command (rule by command), and they cannot innovate privately without fear of capture(theft) of the proceeds of their RISK. So, (and this is true through all of history) people maximize their effort in obtaining rents (parasitism).

    It’s better to think of Marx, Freud, Boaz, Frankfurt School, and Postmodern schools as a kind of pseudoscientific fiction that competes with science fiction and fantasy and the novel to inspire us such that we learn about ourselves by what we wish could be but cannot be.

    https://www.quora.com/In-theory-how-do-innovative-new-companies-get-created-in-a-textbook-socialist-economy

  • Do Rising Us Stock Markets Translate Into A Higher Quality Of Life For More Americans?

    The stock market does not represent the economy. If the stock market DOES represent the economy, then monetary policy is too loose and the stock market will act as the indicator that a correction of that monetary policy is in place – by correcting. So it’s better to treat the stock market as a canary in a coal mine that senses extremes.

    Think of the economy as an enormous school of fish, or flock of birds, that has incentives both to stay near one another, to follow others who have found opportunities, and to ‘defect’ (branch off) if they find counter-opportunities.

    Bad monetary policy that is used to inflate employment, by artificial stimulation of demand,

    The primary value of the stock market is providing an alternative store of value given that the government is constantly destroying the value of money through inflation.

    The secondary value of the stock market is that because the financial sector must desperately seek returns in order to prevent the governments’ destruction of value, the money is reinvested in increasingly risky possibilities stimulating innovation and risk taking.

    The third value is that some of these infinitely risky possibilities are what we call ‘startups’ that produce technological innovations that has been the chief contribution of american society to the world economy. And the possibility of going public and ‘winning the economic lottery’ by doing so, provides the lottery effect, that although few people win, many people ‘play’, and this generates economic opportunity.

    Now, I can also list all the bad things. But I’ll leave that for another post.

    How does this affect the average american? Quality of Life? Well, that’s a very … troublesome term. It’s like happiness. We can’t measure it, because it’s dependent upon the individual, not the polity. We can however measure standard of living, which means the resources available to the individuals prior to their mixture of good and bad decisions.

    And the evidence speaks for itself.

    yes.

    There is a reason that americans have the stock market and produce technology. There is a reason that london holds the bond market, and produces financing. There is a reason that germany masters capital production. There is a reason that russia masters military production.

    Those reasons are the differences in risk tolerance and the sensitivity to failure of each of the polities.

    https://www.quora.com/Do-rising-US-stock-markets-translate-into-a-higher-quality-of-life-for-more-Americans

  • In Theory, How Do Innovative New Companies Get Created In A Textbook Socialist Economy?

    You know, I have been working on debunking the pseudoscience in economics – whether under the pretenses of socialist, social democratic, classical liberal, or libertarian dogmas for a couple of decades now. And I have a very hard time grasping how anyone can be literate enough in the subject to ask such a question, and still suggest that socialism is possible ever under any conditions whatsoever.

    I know why people intuit that such a thing is possible (it isn’t), at least it isn’t for more than a few decades, any more than uninsured (unregulated) markets are possible (they aren’t).

    The better the demographics the higher trust the polity the more effective are markets (rule of law) and the worse the demographics, the lower trust the polity, the more effective is command and control (rule by discretion).

    Socialist economies do not innovate because of incentives. In socialist economies people can enact change through access to command (rule by command), and they cannot innovate privately without fear of capture(theft) of the proceeds of their RISK. So, (and this is true through all of history) people maximize their effort in obtaining rents (parasitism).

    It’s better to think of Marx, Freud, Boaz, Frankfurt School, and Postmodern schools as a kind of pseudoscientific fiction that competes with science fiction and fantasy and the novel to inspire us such that we learn about ourselves by what we wish could be but cannot be.

    https://www.quora.com/In-theory-how-do-innovative-new-companies-get-created-in-a-textbook-socialist-economy

  • Do Rising Us Stock Markets Translate Into A Higher Quality Of Life For More Americans?

    The stock market does not represent the economy. If the stock market DOES represent the economy, then monetary policy is too loose and the stock market will act as the indicator that a correction of that monetary policy is in place – by correcting. So it’s better to treat the stock market as a canary in a coal mine that senses extremes.

    Think of the economy as an enormous school of fish, or flock of birds, that has incentives both to stay near one another, to follow others who have found opportunities, and to ‘defect’ (branch off) if they find counter-opportunities.

    Bad monetary policy that is used to inflate employment, by artificial stimulation of demand,

    The primary value of the stock market is providing an alternative store of value given that the government is constantly destroying the value of money through inflation.

    The secondary value of the stock market is that because the financial sector must desperately seek returns in order to prevent the governments’ destruction of value, the money is reinvested in increasingly risky possibilities stimulating innovation and risk taking.

    The third value is that some of these infinitely risky possibilities are what we call ‘startups’ that produce technological innovations that has been the chief contribution of american society to the world economy. And the possibility of going public and ‘winning the economic lottery’ by doing so, provides the lottery effect, that although few people win, many people ‘play’, and this generates economic opportunity.

    Now, I can also list all the bad things. But I’ll leave that for another post.

    How does this affect the average american? Quality of Life? Well, that’s a very … troublesome term. It’s like happiness. We can’t measure it, because it’s dependent upon the individual, not the polity. We can however measure standard of living, which means the resources available to the individuals prior to their mixture of good and bad decisions.

    And the evidence speaks for itself.

    yes.

    There is a reason that americans have the stock market and produce technology. There is a reason that london holds the bond market, and produces financing. There is a reason that germany masters capital production. There is a reason that russia masters military production.

    Those reasons are the differences in risk tolerance and the sensitivity to failure of each of the polities.

    https://www.quora.com/Do-rising-US-stock-markets-translate-into-a-higher-quality-of-life-for-more-Americans

  • 3) As usual, conservatism (aristocracy) practiced its ancient discipline against

    3) As usual, conservatism (aristocracy) practiced its ancient discipline against hubris. It was possible to reproduce eugenically by market means by forcing the family to bear its own costs, under rule of law (reciprocity) w/o abandoning markets to the hubris of men.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-04 15:35:12 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/970321768798982144

    Reply addressees: @Lord_Keynes2

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/970320703563149312


    IN REPLY TO:

    Unknown author

    @Lord_Keynes2 2 – And Trotsky was the progenitor of the neoconservatives. Abrahamism version two came in the classes: feminists, postmodernists, marxists, libertarians, neocons. with aristocracy (meritocracy, sovereignty, reciprocity, evidentiary truth) as the target of their undermining.

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/970320703563149312


    IN REPLY TO:

    @curtdoolittle

    @Lord_Keynes2 2 – And Trotsky was the progenitor of the neoconservatives. Abrahamism version two came in the classes: feminists, postmodernists, marxists, libertarians, neocons. with aristocracy (meritocracy, sovereignty, reciprocity, evidentiary truth) as the target of their undermining.

    Original post: https://x.com/i/web/status/970320703563149312

  • The religious right operated by internalizing reproductive costs and insurer of

    The religious right operated by internalizing reproductive costs and insurer of last resort costs within the family. With the Church out of power, the academy, (including public intellectuals) sought to replace its role. The martial right (aristocratic) was purely empirical.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-04 14:48:07 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/970309922943586304

    Reply addressees: @Lord_Keynes2

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/970285332791902210


    IN REPLY TO:

    Original post on X

    Original tweet unavailable — we could not load the text of the post this reply is addressing on X. That usually means the tweet was deleted, the account is protected, or X does not expose it to the account used for archiving. The Original post link below may still open if you view it in X while signed in.

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/970285332791902210

  • It has absolutely nothing to do with ‘responsibility’ (Nor did Dick’s decision)

    It has absolutely nothing to do with ‘responsibility’ (Nor did Dick’s decision) but with insurance premiums, and the success of online shaming, in causing women (who control 80% of expenditure) to virtue signal one another.


    Source date (UTC): 2018-03-04 03:22:13 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/970137307742457856

    Reply addressees: @JoeNBC

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/968916491851763712


    IN REPLY TO:

    @ScarboroughNow

    Given recent polling, this is not the expression of “liberal leanings” but rather companies aligning themselves with mainstream views overwhelmingly supported by Americans. https://t.co/yZ7KBVzrUq

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/968916491851763712

  • Guest Post on Testimonialism

    TESTIMONIALISM
    by Alain Kassabian
    PART 1:
     
    “Testimonilaism is a series of standards including operational language, often applied to law, social systems, and incentives. The main (meta) incentive such analysis gives access to is described in Sheepdog, Logos, Stoicism, etc – technically the incentive is net agency. Testimonialism operationalizes operational epistemology: in order to facilitate that sort of high science you seem to need a high trust culture.
     
    The act of testimony is fundamental to high trust society, military, law, science, markets, and personal matters. Testimony (ideal application of speech) creates all the advantages of these institutions, that emerged by necessity when the West chose sovereignty as an organizing principle to maximize agency. Recognizing the connections here re-frames human speech, detailing the magnitude of the processes we evoke with our words and our actions. The institutions and norms we use to further our values are built out of the incentives we’ve faced and how we’ve integrated them.
     
    As intuitive as refining our speech is, it is also intuitive to obscure our speech to indulge vices and pettiness. Reducing anything, especially values down to just information and not bias is by it’s very nature going to dig at what people value. So, to the extent each of us undermines this norm, we enable the continuing parasitization and atrophying of our commons (presently: western civilization). We slim down our chances for positive Black Swans and become ever more vulnerable to the negatives Black Swans. Holding the inverse position (antifragility) seems attainable and highly useful (as in negative common law removing exposure to negative black swans and opening up the various goods and positive black swans), so again, no guarantee – but maybe altering stress response to serve rather than undercut agency by knowing the value of and how to use what we have remaining. Completing the task of optimization is all we can guarantee, investing ourselves beyond that is spiting nature (stoics make it obvious how this makes you fragile and petty).
     
    All language is motivated, and motivations promote symbiosis or they do not. Incentives can thus be divided into two catagories: incentives for net agency (Sheepdog, Logos, Law, Empiricism) and incentives that sacrifice the ideal for more immediate gain (every time any of us obscure our testimony wittingly or otherwise). Seems Biohistory’s C would be the biological conditions required to recognize/measure/optimize conditions for this incentive and V would be the conditions required to defend such an incentive. In an atrophying society perhaps the window for those higher incentives is more narrow, and the costs greater for opposing malincentives baked into leviathan like social structures, although the ultimate cost of abandoning healthy, pro-net-agency incentives is obviously greater if you frame it honestly.
     
    The precision Testimonialism affords for stoic analysis of how incentives stack and run through micro and macro social operating systems (norms) seems to reduce cognitive load. It doesn’t solve everything but it addresses the meta question of how to measure and optimize available responses (Doolittle’s “efficient capture of calories”as in Testimonialism, Propertarianism, Sheepdog, Antifragility, etc.). It shifts the focus to questions of agency and sovereignty (the conditions that underlie the various goods we pursue). On the micro level, the macro framing and organized elimination of fallacies makes shorter work of life planning, selecting information, and training your fast thinking. It’s not hard to detect when yourself or someone else is bringing your attention to something other than evidence – appealing to loading etc.
     
    Part of the micro optimization resulting from and reinforcing Testimonilaism as a norm is that removing loading and solving for agency shifts the focus to improving rather than squabbling over primordial struggles (stoicism again). This affects physical health and offers an extremely integrated sense of meaning (ie. clear definition of symbiosis across scales). You mentioned in another thread that part of the aesthetic of bothering at all against such odds, is that demonstrating value as best we can, is worth it regardless of if those odds are overcome. I agree, and consider the counter aesthetic/value system to be parasitism (not strengthening the ecosystem from which you come), which in terms of objective usefulness and my own bias provides no legitimate alternative.
     
    The first signs I usually notice of downward drag and misintegrated incentives are usually myself or someone else choosing loading and overloading over parsimony, the better one can recognize striking directly at the truth, the more obvious evasive substitutes become (hence military reporting is loud and direct, asking for only the facts). It’s a que that someone is skipping over something or semi to un-consciously avoiding information they perceive as counter to their incentives. To some degree (might depend on specifics), animosity can be inferred when incentives are guarded with deception, whether or not the person admits or realizes the incentives they answer to by operating in willful ignorance. In my mind, it stands out if I think, write, or speak something with loading – and that seems to be habituation of my fast thinking systems, so there’s less of a knee-jerk response to use careless loading (although it takes energy to realize the amount of loading people use, and then to discern when it’s appropriate – when it clarifies and transfers notions that survive empiricism).
     
    I also think letting empirical descriptions of incentives speak for themselves rather than telling people outright what to do, makes one appear more trustworthy – not to be confused with hiding one’s own biases. People seem to intuitively mistrust loading against their own biases whereas they actively look for information regarding their incentives. Although, inflating language isn’t always a bad idea, Curt had a post about how inflationary speech can actually be used to lower costs of communication and therefore further the expression of operational language, as long as we’re packaging realities to the best of our ability.
     
    Limits are also a key concept that Operational Epistemology and Sheepdog underscore the importance of, and by their very nature, grate against value systems… it’s very easy to not want to find the limit of a “beloved” notion. Yet, every statement has a limit and any view of the of the world is disjointed without sufficient emphasis on limits – this seems a common sub-optimal adaption (people refer to where their notions apply, not where they don’t – no complete testing or even guarantee it’s testable).”
     
    PART 2:
     
    “The closest thing to criticism I see for Testimonialism, Sheepdog, Logos (symbiosis raising agency) is regarding the practical access the higher tiers of incentives. I see potential pitfalls as sensible considerations for optimal application, not as contrary to the notion of Testimonilaism, ie.:
     
    1 The idea of solving everything with words is absurd (strawman of Logos) – in reality we can use precise language to shift conditions towards the net agency (meta-incentive)
     
    2 The idea of society not collapsing under prosperity seems far fetched and challenging (strawman of Sheepdog) – in reality solving for agency, c, v, etc. using testimonialism offers value as an optimization, not a guarantee
     
    3 The idea of to more ideal institutions (martial societies, due diligence, warranties, honest prosecution) seems like brutal and far fetched LARPING to the modern mind (strawman of Testimonialism/Propertarianism) – in reality these are descriptions of the norms we cycle through from high to low trust
     
    The reason I don’t see these as criticism is that the process discussed is a natural one with historical precedence. People are naturally intolerant of slights against their own interests and we have produced high levels of key items like precise law, high trust, c, and v. Additionally, the fragility of modernity and of successful civilizations in general is obvious. So to criticize a map of the biological and social systems detailing what happens as you either build up or tear down pro-trust norms as some impossible ideal is to miss the point. Things will never be perfect but we can incrementally suppress predation, parasitism, and the negative sides of co-operation, and at higher levels of Agency, C, and V, it should start looking about as ideal as it gets in reality.
     
    Again, a stoic shifting of attention to optimization rather than searching for some imaginary guarantee of success is more useful and therefore congruent with any value system you have that actually represents striving for good (symbiosis). So these measures that further testimonialism by sustaining high trust (symbiosis) are the point and throwing away the tools of measurement because “life is really hard” and “that’s impossible” is clearly not as useful. There isn’t even technically a requirement to do anything any harder, picking up better tools can make it easier to do what you already do (especially if they’re built around empiricism, operational epistemology, incentives, clarity, parsimony).
     
    The other potential criticism that jumps out is for testimonialism is that “it’s censorship”, although, I see it as assumed (and Curt has also stated) that reserving access to free truthful speech is important. So, it might seem overbearing and authoritarian, but the fact is we have been and should continue to suppress deceptive behaviour that undermines our agency, sovereignty, and antifragility. This is the idea of preserving and expressing natural authority over arbitrary authority because it aligns with a meta incentive (agency gives you more of whatever you value).
     
    I sometimes wonder if this sort of adaption is innate to being or sentience regardless of what happens to any particular species: Logos, Sheepdog, the natural advantages available given sentience. Again, I agree that for personal sanity and maximized success across larger scales, a focus on what is in our control (demonstrating value) is a better frame for considering the odds, than to consider them primarily for how bad they seem (a result affected by our actions, but ultimately beyond our absolute control). Excuses for not taking the best shot is weak in the micro and macro sense, especially in terms of survivability and aesthetics. Again, I suppose the counter aesthetic is parasitism (not bothering to strengthen the ecosystem from which you come) and that’s home how valid too (producing alienation, evasion, and excess fragility in the macro and micro)? Maybe it’s bias to prefer the pole that corresponds to the in built non-psychopath intuition (as poorly as we stick to it at times) – but it seems justified describing the empirical realities of each pole (high and low trust).
     
    There are a few versions of this list, but these are essentially the 6-8 standards of measurement referred to in
     
    Testimonialism:
     
    https://propertarianinstitute.com/2016/03/10/q-do-you-have-a-concise-definition-for-testimonialism/
     
    https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-adjective-form-of-truth/answer/Curt-Doolittle