Theme: Incentives

  • hmm…. Having run a company in the UK, I’m not sure that’s true. Don’t work har

    hmm…. Having run a company in the UK, I’m not sure that’s true. Don’t work hard. Avoid work at every opportunity. Look for handouts at every opportunity. And the whole country outside of London is poor because of it. Very similar to what happened to Spain – formerly hard working people … stopped.
    Of course you have a different personal experience and I have a different objective, so I respect your opinion. 😉

    Reply addressees: @Nefertiiti @SchnapsideeG


    Source date (UTC): 2024-03-21 01:00:11 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770616358994083840

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770615624986677447

  • Simply not true. Trump has said only that (a) he will end the war in the first 2

    Simply not true. Trump has said only that (a) he will end the war in the first 24 hours of ascending to the presidency (b) we are making a bad use of funds because of it (c) and europe should be paying the vast majority, not the USA.

    Trump always and everywhere keeps his negotiation position open. He does not make the public or his administration comfortable with laying down policy that they can manipulate. Instead, he seeks to establish personal relations with other heads of state and to use threats to drive the opposition party into a settlement.

    I can’t figure out for the life of my why, given trump wrote a book about it, people don’t grasp what trump is always and everywhere up to. (a) rally the base (b) preserve opportunity for one on one negotiations (c) pressure the administration to think creatively linstead of ‘traditionally’, (d) bait the opposition into educating the public when they attack him.

    I have no idea why people don’t grasp this strategy other than that they’ve never been in a position of power competing with others around the world who are often corrupt or full of malincentives.

    Reply addressees: @TheInsiderPaper


    Source date (UTC): 2024-03-11 18:10:56 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1767251880600543232

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1767236176753160263

  • RT @Lord__Sousa: The HNW are leaving: – China (13,500) – India (6,500) – United

    RT @Lord__Sousa: The HNW are leaving:

    – China (13,500)
    – India (6,500)
    – United Kingdom (3,200)
    – Russia (3,000)

    VS HNW moving to:

    – Aus…


    Source date (UTC): 2024-03-06 18:31:31 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765445119040270396

  • No ‘we should agree to believe’ strategy will work. Change incentives not ‘belie

    No ‘we should agree to believe’ strategy will work.
    Change incentives not ‘beliefs’.
    Changing incentives changes beliefs.


    Source date (UTC): 2024-03-01 17:17:19 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1763614505051832339

    Reply addressees: @costelloe_w @NoahRevoy

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1763598581267669450

  • The only thing that kept BTC from going to zero was institutional investors seek

    The only thing that kept BTC from going to zero was institutional investors seeking to preserve the opportunity. That’s all. Otherwise it would have gone, as expected to under 10k. My argument is that their support was unexpected. And that if they have confidence in it then it might survive as an investment vehicle. But if the ‘problems’ of btc are solved, (i don’t think they can be) given the compute cost and the performance, and it became a viable liquid currency, the state would stop it as a competitor.

    Reply addressees: @BuffJones2


    Source date (UTC): 2024-02-27 00:38:32 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762275989797662720

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762275139494768706

  • I’ve been correct for more than a decade, and It’s very unlikely I’ll be wrong –

    I’ve been correct for more than a decade, and It’s very unlikely I’ll be wrong – IF anyone tries to turn a crypto currency into a competitor to fiat.

    I have very good record over the medium to long term.


    Source date (UTC): 2024-02-27 00:36:15 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762275415446479293

    Reply addressees: @BuffJones2

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762275139494768706

  • UPDATE TO THIS CRITICISM OF BITCOIN Brad just reminded me that I should clarify

    UPDATE TO THIS CRITICISM OF BITCOIN
    Brad just reminded me that I should clarify this position, in that I’m objecting to the possibility of a crypto asset functioning as a liquid currency – but that’s all.
    The wealthy and the institutions alone can support bitcoin as a means of… https://twitter.com/curtdoolittle/status/1762231410796937593


    Source date (UTC): 2024-02-26 23:53:55 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762264763612921876

  • I have a different job. We can make a lot of claims. So far we’re not seeing muc

    I have a different job. We can make a lot of claims. So far we’re not seeing much of anything manifest other than hyper-availability of capital in narrow sectors leads to overcompensation and ‘investment’ in speculative returns.

    I don’t see the new renaissance. I see a correction as horrific as the plague and great depression at once, becuase the birth rate collapse is of greater scale than the plague, the best people are not reproducing and IQ is precipitous, and we failed to end enough of the surviving agrarian empires, and we failed to reform our government upon (a) completing settlement of the continent (b) and the end of the communist era, and now (c) the damage caused by the feminization of institutions which is likely irreversible.

    I see tech leaving ‘us guys’ meaning those that are capable of rare and challenging work continuing our climb, and the decimation of white collar work, restoring the viability of blue collar work.

    The left killed us. Women were the poison they used. Immigration prevented our recovery. We lack the population and IQ point advantage we began with. And we have lost demographic control of our institutions that would be necessary for recovery. And even then we’ve exhausted the classical liberal era of expansion by conquest using entrepreneurs instead of state financing. And that’s most obvious in the success of fascism and chinese fascism to use the state not for caretaking (as the west did because of leftism) but for generation of competitive advantage.

    I just don’t see it. And I’m not wrong very often. We are always constrained by limits. Even if AI is a leap, it doesn’t have hands and it can only work through humans. We need those humans. And it looks like we’re going to have a five to eight year processor winter if that ‘trillion dollar’ (nonsense) investment doesn’t happen yesterday.

    Reply addressees: @cryptodiaries


    Source date (UTC): 2024-02-26 22:45:08 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762247451421908992

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762242490512421101

  • I HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CORRECT ON BITCOIN’S FUTURE This video start

    I HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CORRECT ON BITCOIN’S FUTURE
    This video starts with reflections on china but ninety percent of the content explains the vulnerability of bitcoin.

    Now, I’ve been ‘on message’ since something like 2012, and I know the fanboys are religious zealots. But like I said, a central bank can gut the system instantly, and they have multiple reasons to do so. In fact, as the speaker says in the video, the fact that bitcoin sucks at liquidity is the only reason Organized Crime has limited its use. There isn’t any ‘post-state’ world comging about. Instead the USA’s ‘connection’ of the world as an economy is coming about and the conflict of civilizations and the fragility of trade is returning along with the ’empires’ that failed to make the transition to federations: russia, china, and islam.

    So if you think you are smart enough to ride bitcoin up, and then time your exit that’s fine. I probably could do that if I was interested. That’s because the reaction time of governments and banks is slow.

    I am not anti-crypto. If it solved the ‘bankless’ problem alone I’d be thrilled with it. If it was used to force banks to hold their loans, but sell shares in them to restore their lending cycle I’d be even more thrilled. If it solved replacing the (corrupt) stock market I’d be more thrilled – it’s totally unnecessary. If it was used to create title registries for property of all sorts, I’d be thrilled with it – god knows how much a pain that is. I don’t put a lot of faith in ‘smart contracts’ but for some cases that might be good for commodity deals. And I love the idea of a traceable currency for the simple reason that it would provide solid economic data and allow the central bank and the state to move ahead of rather than behind the data. And as some of you know I’ve been a proponent of new accounting software that did the same internally – so that executives could understand how money REALLY flowed through their businesses without the human cost of creating vast numbers of complex transactions in existing accounting systems. All of those are good things.

    But if you think govts are going to give up control of borrowing and liquidity you’re clearly living in an archaic delusion. And if you think that if digital currency solves the transaction speed and volume problem sufficient to compete with a central currency, that they won’t give a 30 day window to buy fedcoins before they shut down the possibility of extracting the value, you’re just ignorant and delusional.

    I haven’t been wrong. I won’t be wrong. The only ‘miss’ I’ve had over the past decade is the rather ‘odd’ rescue of bitcoin by institutions – which I just didn’t expect. I understand why they’ve done it. I just also understand why they think they’ll be able to time it.

    Video (wrong title, about china, ignore it)
    https://t.co/ytccoGoO2b


    Source date (UTC): 2024-02-26 21:41:23 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1762231410503405568

  • I wrote a long answer. And then deleted it. Because it amounts to “There is no s

    I wrote a long answer. And then deleted it. Because it amounts to “There is no safety. If you want a house then wait for interest rates to come down and prices as well and buy what you feel safe buying without a stretch.”


    Source date (UTC): 2024-02-23 01:45:39 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760843331167306031

    Reply addressees: @BillCorbet68905

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1760838706003423619