Curt Doolittle

Theme: Crisis

  • DAVID SHAPIRO’S 5 YEAR AI PREDICTIONS (CD: Note: I have a clearer picture of the

    DAVID SHAPIRO’S 5 YEAR AI PREDICTIONS
    (CD: Note: I have a clearer picture of the predictable economic and political consequences, with the political being the most risky, but I can’t really comment on the viability of these predictions. That said, even if they’re a bit early they don’t seem far off to me.)
    David’s Predictions:
    1. 2024 AGI THIS YEAR? Given the size and rumors about GPT5 Expect AGI This Year. Nvidia’s foundation agent models – every modality including embodiment, spatial, math. Robots that are already in the uncanny valley.
    The next Gartner hype cycle will be profound and then it will wear off… until the job losses start.
    2. 2025 will see the limited commercial takeoff of AGI.
    3. 2026 Kurzweil thinks ASI … Then we see unemployment creep up. Everyone across the economic and financial spectrum is saying the same thing: these things are going to fundamentally reshape our economic landscape and our relations to job and work.
    4. 2027 About when project Stargate will take off ($100B data centers in the desert), we’ll see the scale effects. We’ll need energy capacity (solar, nuclear). Constraints are (a) data and (b) chips. A lot of data is not useful (good) so we’re going to need new theories of categorizing the quality of data and information.
    5. 2028 All competitors will be online by this time. SO it’s impossible to forecast that future given the rate of evolution of the tech, and the number …
    We are going to see another confluence of multiple techs producing another ‘iphone moment’ so to speak.
    Top contenders: boston dynamics(Robots), openai(Software), nvidia(Hardware/Chips). (CD: IMO tesla)
    https://t.co/150GSV2Y8H

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-29 21:49:17 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785063834211762176

  • DAVID SHAPIRO’S 5 YEAR AI PREDICTIONS (CD: Note: I have a clearer picture of the

    DAVID SHAPIRO’S 5 YEAR AI PREDICTIONS
    (CD: Note: I have a clearer picture of the predictable economic and political consequences, with the political being the most risky, but I can’t really comment on the viability of these predictions but even if they’re a bit early they don’t seem far off to me.)
    David’s Predictions:
    1. 2024 AGI THIS YEAR? Given the size and rumors about GPT5 Expect AGI This Year. Nvidia’s foundation agent models – every modality including embodiment, spatial, math. Robots that are already in the uncanny valley.
    The next Gartner hype cycle will be profound and then it will wear off… until the job losses start.
    2. 2025 will see the limited commercial takeoff of AGI.
    3. 2026 Kurzweil thinks ASI … Then we see unemployment creep up. Everyone across the economic and financial spectrum is saying the same thing: these things are going to fundamentally reshape our economic landscape and our relations to job and work.
    4. 2027 About when project Stargate will take off ($100B data centers in the desert), we’ll see the scale effects. We’ll need energy capacity (solar, nuclear). Constraints are (a) data and (b) chips. A lot of data is not useful (good) so we’re going to need new theories of categorizing the quality of data and information.
    5. 2028 All competitors will be online by this time. SO it’s impossible to forecast that future given the rate of evolution of the tech, and the number …
    We are going to see another confluence of multiple techs producing another ‘iphone moment’ so to speak.
    Top contenders: boston dynamics(Robots), openai(Software), nvidia(Hardware/Chips). (CD: IMO tesla)
    https://t.co/150GSV2Y8H

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-29 21:49:17 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785062959724552193

  • Ladies. Context: Most of us who work together have wives, are in good relationsh

    Ladies. Context: Most of us who work together have wives, are in good relationships, and are successful in life. We are struggling with the crisis of our age. And we understand that the sequential introduction of the middle class, the working classes, women, and now third world alien populations, have cause integration and adaptation struggles for the past. This matters because class roughly corresponds to capacity to bear responsibility for mind, self, family, private and common at increasing scales. Adding the ‘women’ class was a shock because women do not seek to produce independence, produce competitive excellence, demonstrate economic and political responsibiilty, and most importantly favor capitalizaion in pursuit of status but instead CONSUMPTION and evasion of responsiblity (again consumption) because the sex differences in the brains are reducible to male systematizing predator-response capitalization and responsibility for it vs female empathizing prey-response and hyperconsumption, and absence of responsibility for it.
    Every single thing a feminine mind disagrees with a male mind over – other than willgness to have sex – consists of the evasion of responsibility while seeking hyperconsumption at others’ (usually men’s) expense.
    There are no cases where this isn’t true.
    And that’s the most disturbing bit of science I’ve ever come across in my life.
    SO – the men in our group are trying to find a method of (a) ending the illusion of female victimhood and innocence (b) equally outlawing female antisocial behavior as we have male (c) causing female self regulation of parasitism and driving the sexes to reconcilliation in politics.
    Why? We are just doing the hard work of integrating another class into society, economy, and polity while constraining animal instincts to the direction of capitalzation for use in the commons.

    Reply addressees: @Womenrising2023 @MizzFuzzBall @NoahRevoy

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-29 17:29:04 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784998348568543232

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784994928306659792

  • I think part of my job, our job, is to create a field of potential camps that al

    I think part of my job, our job, is to create a field of potential camps that allow the ‘great sort’ into red territories and blue cities going, and to prevent contagion as people flee blue cities by preventing their political participation until they’ve achievd full integration.

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-28 17:11:20 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784631496524829156

    Reply addressees: @NoahRevoy @bryanbrey @hendry_hugh

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784605173832147075

  • I think part of my job, our job, is to create a field of potential camps that al

    I think part of my job, our job, is to create a field of potential camps that allow the ‘great sort’ into red territories and blue cities going, and to prevent contagion as people flee blue cities by preventing their political participation until they’ve achievd full integration.

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-28 17:11:20 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784631496461918208

  • WE ARE AT WAR? (YES WE ARE)

    WE ARE AT WAR? (YES WE ARE) https://twitter.com/WerrellBradley/status/1783811991532093652

  • Well, everyone needs to make a bet on one of the following scenarios, while ackn

    Well, everyone needs to make a bet on one of the following scenarios, while acknowledging that all inflation ends up in housing prices and promissory (investment) assets, and all of which correct at some time (ie: the austrians were correct int hat you can’t kick the can down the road forever). Yet it is almost impossible to see world assets flee under stress to any other political system, because the US (and UK) are the only governments that protect investments even at cost with rigorous legal systems.
    1 – world conflict will cause evaporation of inflated asset prices. (Increasingly likely.)
    2 – the demographic production and capital production collapse we entered two or three years ago, will cause deflation of asset prices (increasingly likely)
    3 – We will experience the ‘two decade depression’ that will gradually vaporize those assets in concert with the above events.
    4 – We will continue the ‘managed decline’ with the fed doing all it can to flatten it as much as possible, until we are as poor as europeans today (by comparison) and europeans will be poorer than they are today by comparison.
    5 – Sometime after that the public insurance sector, incluiding medical and retirement will bottom out.
    6 – But I’m still on the side of ‘all of the above plus a civil war’ because that’s sure what it looks like to me.

    So it’s possible that any one of those or all of those could happen. Without population growth, the decline of taxation to allow it, and the restructuring of the economy to reduce relative costs (now out of control) I don’t see any way to produce prosperity by the acceleration of consumption that we have in the past.

    Reply addressees: @bryanbrey @hendry_hugh

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 20:45:41 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783960663347359744

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783938283858178284

  • Will The Right Retaliate?

    Will The Right Retaliate? https://youtu.be/cS8dAj9kxRQ?si=MSw0CuQa3MopQ8W5

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 14:36:00 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783867630148809075

  • Hmm. Yes of course. However, an increasing number, and in the near future a vast

    Hmm. Yes of course. However, an increasing number, and in the near future a vastly increasing number will be left behind on the margin as we pass the tipping point between increasing human productivity and the cost of human existence within that system of productivity, We are already at the point where more than 15% are effectively incapable of self sustainability in the current degree of development. I expect this number to pass twenty, then twenty five. Had the eugenicists not been overthrown by the excesses of the Nazis we might have controlled it. But even dreams of UBI are fantasies as this equilibrium continues to decrease the margins.

    Reply addressees: @Nico_Macdonald @HumanProgress @mattwridley

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 04:17:19 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783711933692104704

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783709681271116027

  • RT @SaitouHajime00: @curtdoolittle I’ve recently come to the conclusion that CW2

    RT @SaitouHajime00: @curtdoolittle I’ve recently come to the conclusion that CW2.0 will look more like The Troubles and 30yr War than CW1,…

    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 03:39:13 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783702347434058163