Theme: Crisis

  • No but I wouldn’t hear it in my present capacity. The hard problem facing all of

    No but I wouldn’t hear it in my present capacity.
    The hard problem facing all of them is interest rates working thru the system. This isn’t the same problem as nonsense financial instruments. It’s a normal contraction from too much risk expansion. We are seeing the stimulus wear out at the same time inflation and interest rates are rising, and we can see it in the purchasing and container shipments. But we’re not yet seeing it in customer spending or employment. A bunch of us understood the 08 thing was deterministic. We knew this one too. But this time it’s a bit different because it’s not JUST an economic cycle.

    Reply addressees: @JDPARIZEE70 @Getouttheway7


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 01:10:07 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634361021564436481

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634352035729399809

  • No but I wouldn’t hear it in my present capacity. The hard problem facing all of

    No but I wouldn’t hear it in my present capacity.
    The hard problem facing all of them is interest rates working thru the system. This isn’t the same problem as nonsense financial instruments. It’s a normal contraction from too much risk expansion. We are seeing the stimulus wear out at the same time inflation and interest rates are rising, and we can see it in the purchasing and container shipments. But we’re not yet seeing it in customer spending or employment. A bunch of us understood the 08 thing was deterministic. We knew this one too. But this time it’s a bit different because it’s not JUST an economic cycle.


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 01:10:07 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634361021648236545

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634352035729399809

  • Sorry. Not sure why you think that. THE USA’S POSTWAR STRATEGY AND THE REASON FO

    Sorry. Not sure why you think that.

    THE USA’S POSTWAR STRATEGY AND THE REASON FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM IT

    … The USA entered the world wars with the understanding that the age of empires was creating monopolies and war, rather than markets and peace between countries.

    The US postwar policy was:
    … 1) to prevent another world war by creating open markets to raise undeveloped countries into prosperity, dependent upon each other for trade, and incentivized to be ‘good world citizens’.
    … 2) to prevent the formation of or expansion of empires that prohibited free trade and led to the world wars.
    … 3) to prevent local wars by limiting governments to economic development, human rights, and respect for borders.
    … 4) to ensure petroleum was available to world markets;
    … 5) to ensure communism did not spread to the middle east or the rest of the world, and threaten all of the above, restoring empires and destroying free trade.
    … 6) And once Islamist theoreticians learned from the communists and imitated the communists then we were stuck in the same position. With Islamic terrorism instead of the communist terrorism of the previous generations.
    … 7) And we sacrificed so much to raise china, and they turned on us.
    … 8) There are only three hostile empires with imperial ambitions, trying to overthrow world free trade and the US attempt to prevent more world wars: Russia, Iran, and China.
    … 8) And we have hurt our economy, hurt our lower and middle class and lost our people in world conflicts trying to do so.

    SO;
    … a) This strategy raised the world out of ignorance poverty starvation and disease.
    … b) Was the USA clear about it instead of wrapping it in ‘democracy’ nonsense? No.
    … c) Was the USA consistent in the application? No.
    … d) Did the USA make mistakes in doing so? Very much so.

    AND;
    … Do we know why the USA made mistakes? In retrospect, yes. The modern state invented by england, consisting of rule of law, constitution, and participatory government, requires the prior formation of:
    … a) nationalism over tribalism or familism.
    … b) a universal military service, and franchise with rigorous training and indoctrination that institutionalized that nationalism.
    … c) a constitution, rule of law, and judiciary from that military that can reliably punish crime, corruption, and sedition. And a police (Sherrif) force that enforces it.
    … d) a majority middle class because of that success fully production of rule of law by that judiciary
    … e) and most difficult of all, a population with an IQ sufficient to create a majority middle-class polity. And that right there … that’s the problem.

    THE RESULT;
    … We tried to spread a high-trust, 100+ IQ political system. While it was possible in India because of the caste system and hindu religion, despite an IQ 85 population. When we tried to spread it to 85(MENA) and 75(AFRICA) with LOW TRUST, familial, tribal, or fundamentalist civilizations it’s impossible.
    … So that is why we gave up on modernizing the world, the same way we gave up on colonizing and governing the world. Because outside of east Asian and Europe, the populations of the world do not have a demographic distribution capable of an economy sufficient to form a majority middle class on world markets, that can succeed by free trade.
    … Instead, those countries fight us at every opportunity.
    … And so the USA is withdrawing from our mission to raise the world into modernity, because the world is unfit for it.
    … And so the world needs multi-polarity, where we have advanced federations of ever-developing countries, less advanced stagnant authoritarian countries, and far less advanced impoverished despotic countries.
    … And when we stop defending world trade at least two billion people that we have raised out of poverty will die of starvation. And another billion of war. And we, on our oceans, and our islands will be just fine.

    I hope this helps.
    Curt Doolittle
    The Natural Law Institute


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 01:01:04 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634358747484106753

  • There should be some difficulty, as it will affect customers and their employees

    There should be some difficulty, as it will affect customers and their employees, but it might be containable, because this wasn’t due to the same kind of nonsense as the previous crisis. I would expect that the problem SVB faced will apply to other banks, who are as equally dependent upon interest rates. So we SHOULD expect more of this. But I don’t see anything like 08.

    If they just ‘sell’ the bank to someone else, or operate it under the fed for a bit, this isn’t a catastrophic problem.

    I’m hopeful it spreads tho. 😉

    Reply addressees: @Getouttheway7


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 00:21:52 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634348879721136129

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634347746349178880

  • There should be some difficulty, as it will affect customers and their employees

    There should be some difficulty, as it will affect customers and their employees, but it might be containable, because this wasn’t due to the same kind of nonsense as the previous crisis. I would expect that the problem SVB faced will apply to other banks, who are as equally dependent upon interest rates. So we SHOULD expect more of this. But I don’t see anything like 08.

    If they just ‘sell’ the bank to someone else, or operate it under the fed for a bit, this isn’t a catastrophic problem.

    I’m hopeful it spreads tho. 😉


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 00:21:52 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634348879809265665

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634347746349178880

  • Well, in celebration of SVB’s seizure (sic) I’m going to watch the movie ‘Contag

    Well, in celebration of SVB’s seizure (sic) I’m going to watch the movie ‘Contagion’ tonight. 😉

    #Sarcasm


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 00:17:44 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634347838304927744

  • WHEN THE FEDS ARRIVE AT YOUR BANK… When the feds arrive and take over your ban

    WHEN THE FEDS ARRIVE AT YOUR BANK…
    When the feds arrive and take over your bank, it looks like an army of suits, and they use polite but firm language, and soft and practical voices. So, they don’t look like the Swat team has battered open your door, thrown flash bangs thru the windows, and barged in by the dozens in full combat gear, shouting in deep threatening voices, with flashlights in your face, batons smashing you flat to the ground, while getting pig piled by angry gorillas with poor manual dexterity fitfully trying to put on the handcuffs.
    No. It doesn’t LOOK like that.
    But it FEELS like that.

    (good) 😉


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 00:13:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634346843634008064

  • WHEN THE FEDS ARRIVE AT YOUR BANK… When the feds arrive and take over your ban

    WHEN THE FEDS ARRIVE AT YOUR BANK…
    When the feds arrive and take over your bank, it looks like an army of suits, and they use polite but firm language, and soft and practical voices. So, they don’t look like the Swat team has battered open your door, thrown flash bangs thru the windows, and barged in by the dozens in full combat gear, shouting in deep threatening voices, with flashlights in your face, batons smashing you flat to the ground, while getting pig piled by angry gorillas with poor manual dexterity fitfully trying to put on the handcuffs.
    No. It doesn’t LOOK like that.
    But it FEELS like that.

    (good) 😉


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 00:13:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634346843516575745

  • WHEN THE FEDS ARRIVE AT YOUR BANK… When the feds arrive and take over your ban

    WHEN THE FEDS ARRIVE AT YOUR BANK…
    When the feds arrive and take over your bank, it looks like an army of suits, and they use polite but firm language, and soft and practical voices. So, they don’t look like the Swat team has battered open your door, thrown flash bangs thru the windows, and barge in by the dozens in full combat gear, shouting in deep threatening voices, with flashlights in your face, batons smashing you flat to the ground, while getting pig piled by angry gorillas with poor manual dexterity fitfully trying to put on the handcuffs.
    No. It doesn’t LOOK like that.
    But it FEELS like that.

    (good) 😉


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-11 00:13:46 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634344187876323333

  • (I’m having fun with the bank failure, because how often do we get to talk econ,

    (I’m having fun with the bank failure, because how often do we get to talk econ, finance, banking, and policy as if anyone cares? And I’m making lunch at the same time. And you want me to work?)

    The hierarch of ternary logic that results from evolutionary computation as the universe ‘discovers’ stable relations of negative entropy.

    Yeah. I know. What the heck does that mean?

    It means there are twenty or so general rules and a hundred or so subrules necessary to explain everything from the physical, behavioral, evolutionary laws and the formal laws (logic) that explain them.

    But there is only one rule: Evolutionary computation of negative entropy in defeat of entropy.

    Why that’s true isn’t very complicated. Quantum background. Dipoles and such. Though I seem to lose people when I explain why only three spatial dimensions are possible. 😉

    More later
    Thanks for asking.


    Source date (UTC): 2023-03-10 21:38:39 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634307806110134280

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634304446954983424