RT @Psyche_OS: The US Military Recruiting Crisis, especially of the critical southern white bucket and the general white bucket is in full…
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-15 18:48:44 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1680288304191754240
The abrahamic religions old and new are responsible for more death and destruction than all but the great plagues. Even then, we recover from the plagues, while those addicted never recover from their disease. There is nothing good in christianity that was not in greek and roman religion and philosophy. And everything bad in the abrahamic religions exists to infanilize and destroy civilization.
Reply addressees: @DanielLamere
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-15 14:10:31 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1680218286741389312
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1680216962570305537
RUSSIA IS HEADING INTO BECOMING A NORTH KOREA?
(Worth Repeating)
The Eight Possible Futures for Russia
… 1) Repeat France (Good): absolutist, big bureaucracy, bloody revolutionary tradition, threatening neighbors, into settling down into not threatening your neighbors. (though france still is, just softly)
… 2) Authoritarian Leader, don’t threaten your neighbors (solve the ukraine problem, not the russia problem). Because trying to threaten neighbors is a losing game.
… 3) Chinese Puppet Regime. Stalin vs Mao, reversed. A partner to be anti western to protect the CCP against the west. (Catastrophic for russia as well as the west)
… 4) The Biggest North Korea we’ve ever seen. Isolated, disconnected from the international system, incentivized for mischief across the board. A semi-puppet regime for china but russia constantly troubles china. (This is the current pathway. (CD: I AGREE))
… 5) Anarchy and Collapse.
… 6) This current tragedy continues for decades
… 7) Apparently, a democratic Russia is off the table? Even with the Marshall Plan Times Ten? I don’t think so.
… 8) We have no idea. 😉
via Kotkin.
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-14 21:17:07 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679963257518342145
Timing vs Determinism. Most of us were in the 2020-2030 range. But it was obvious by the late nineties and the rough time fame certain by the early 00s.
Financial econon worries about timing.
Fed econ worries about trends.
Political econ worries about cycles.
2008 proved the last of the outstanding austrian theories.
The only difference now is that we remain operationalists and social scientists while the freshwater remain insurers and saltwater the exploiters.
Unfortunately the scientific context of austrian theory was poorly understood by its founders, and this misunderstanding of it’s place in the sciences continues.
And unfortunately the fact that austrian is often accessible by literary rather than scientific study, the popular end of the movement is stuck in some substantially ‘off’ assertions by the jewish austrians, and a failure of the christan austrians to complete the project.
Just as Babbage didn’t really know what he had done, niether did the Austrians. It was far more important than was obvious – and still is so.
Reply addressees: @WigginsSenor @BobMurphyEcon
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-14 00:48:42 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679654114483994624
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679296450411339776
KOTKIN ON THE KREMLIN STATE OF MIND, AND RUSSIA’S SIX POSSIBLE FUTURES
–“I mean, I’m from New York and I worked in New Jersey. It’s not like it’s a foreign topic.”–Stephen Kotkin
Explaining his deep understanding of Putin’s government in response to the Prigozhin rebellion as exactly the dynamics of the mob.
Priceless. 😉
Seriously. He has it down. I haven’t seen anyone with this accurate an analysis yet. But that would make sense given kotkin’s record of historical works.
Worth the watch.
https://t.co/zPxUwhaSmu
Index For the TLDR; Crowd:
2:39 to 12:30 Understanding the Kremlin’s Condition
12:31 to 20:28 The Six(8?) Possible Futures for Russia
… 1) Repeat France (Good): absolutist, big bureaucracy, bloody revolutionary tradition, threatening neighbors, into settling down into not threatening your neighbors. (though france still is, just softly)
… 2) Authoritarian Leader, don’t threaten your neighbors (solve the ukraine problem, not the russia problem). Because trying to threaten neighbors is a losing game.
… 3) Chinese Puppet Regime. Stalin vs Mao, reversed. A partner to be anti western to protect the CCP against the west. (Catastrophic for russia as well as the west)
… 4) The Biggest North Korea we’ve ever seen. Isolated, disconnected from the international system, incentivized for mischief across the board. A semi-puppet regime for china but russia constantly troubles china. (This is the current pathway. (CD: I AGREE))
… 5) Anarchy and Collapse.
… 6) We have no idea. 😉
… ?) No 7? This tragedy continues for decades.
… ?) No 8? (CD: Apparently a democratic russia is off the table? Even with the Marshall Plan Times Ten?)
@HooverInst #StephenKotkin
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-13 23:29:27 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679634171637952512
–“China’s national unemployment rate is 26% and urban unemployment is 55%”– June 27th.
Very hard to guestimate these numbers but Lei’s done a good job.
These numbers reflect a 1.4B population even though we suspect the population is only 1.2B, but Lei predicts it’s only 1B.… https://t.co/mCSbJvYaaf
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-13 21:08:35 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679598722362011654
Eugenics was a mainstream and predominantly american movement in the pre-war era. It was the nazi ‘overzealousness’ and the postwar jewish counter-reaction that ended it. Unfortunelty, because any economist who studies the numbers, especially in crime, can easily identify how serious a problem this is and how fast dysgenia spreads in a population.
Soft eugenics = sterilization of the incompetent, with the definition of incompetent increasing over time until it means ‘capable of responsibility for the self’.
Reply addressees: @patriciamdavis
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-13 18:46:09 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679562878746087425
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679555496213381120
If you study revolutions they are largely unpredictable in timing even if they are possible to imagine. I do not see how it is in anyway possible for this country to survive at this scale with this much centrality in the federal government.
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-11 23:59:08 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678916868533362690
Reply addressees: @John83243550517 @B595B @PeterZeihan
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678915832729190400
Jay’s list (other than Sowell) consists largely of the NeoCon revolution that captured the republican party. So just as the democratic party under the neo-Marxist influence dragged us out of republicanism into working-class (now underclass) globalism, the NeoCon(NeoTrotsky) influence dragged the republican party into upper-class globalism.
A republic is a very simple concept: the prohibition on authority, by the rule of law, by the natural law of self-determination by self-determined means by the natural law of cooperation by means of reciprocal insurance (by force of arms) of sovereignty in demonstrated interest, reciprocity in display, word, and deed, limiting us to voluntary markets for cooperation, government of concurrency (falsely claimed as democracy), and commonality in law – meaning a purely empirical civilization.
(An importance which PeterZ objects to, but I don’t know if it’s because he understands what he’s saying when he states our government under common law is designed to debate (a market), and European governments under continental law are designed to rule (a hierarchy).)
However, the overproduction of elites, the overexpansion of managerial government, and the false promise of globalism under the guise of multi-ethnic, multiculturalism, are antithetical to a Republic because all overproduction of elites (Turchin), like all overproduction of management in the private sector, or overproduction of researchers in the academy, all drive us out of the prohibition on authority, and into the demand for authority, and the subsequent civilizational collapse.
So if you don’t recognize the republican party it’s because no longer Neocon, (for the reasons Peter’s Books explain as change in the global equilibrium of comparative advantage), and we are seeing the conservatives instead strive to return to the western tradition of a rule of law republic whose institutions maximize individual responsibility and minimize free riding, rent-seeking, socialization of losses, and privatization of commons, as well as totally ignoring the wants of the population (by our political, academic, media, and financial sectors), while the democratic party, captured by the neoMarxist-to-Woke left consisting of those parasitic classes, and the false promise that those parasitic classes can convey the prosperity of a republic to managerial state, in the service of those classes that seek to evade the maximization of individual responsibility that is the purpose of the western institutional tradition, the common, concurrent, natural law, the constitution, and the very concept of a constitutional republic.
The problem is that we are so ignorant because of the neoMarxist-to-woke ‘deliberate march through the institutions of cultural production” that we can’t even have an adult conversation about what is possible or not and what is true or not, so between what is true and possible we can choose a compromise position.
It’s exasperating.
And the march toward civil war continues.
Cheers
Reply addressees: @PeterZeihan
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-11 19:36:11 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678850691584933889
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678844221359529985
(@SosoTheWanderer: the Anglo-American postwar experiment with ending empires and the continuous warfare of empires, by creating free trade and free migration has come to an end – because it failed.
We are seeing the restoration of nationalism, of ‘civilizationism’, and possibly less so racism (even if India and china are the most racist peoples on earthy).
And as the empires return to confidence, they restore their ambitions (Russia, China, Iran, and now possibly India, at least under Modi), because the decadence of the west is too high a price to pay and no one wants it to spread to the remaining traditional cultures and equally destroy the individual and the family.
The west made the mistake of promoting democracy when all that was necessary was promoting rule of law, from which democracy will naturally emerge as the middle class emerges from rule of law. Now the window of opportunity has passed.
Nigeria has a serious problem because its reproduction is unsustainable, because its production is insufficient to satisfy its population, and it cannot afford to acquire resources in a world where free trade under Western protection ends.
So we should expect to see increasing suppression of any migration of the poor into countries with declining populations who need every spare unit of their money to carry their elderly – they can’t afford “others’ poor”.
And we should see extraordinary revolutionary pressure in Nigeria (and not nigeria alone) as the challenge of simply feeding the population is returned to 19th century conditions.
Economics eventually drives everything.
Reply addressees: @SosoTheWanderer
Source date (UTC): 2023-07-09 20:01:52 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678132380714901504
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1677761474109005824