—-“Complexity is often employed to deceive, obfuscate, and evade the simplest of truths. The proper function of complexity is in the increased precision of truth telling, rather than the enhancement of lying.”—-Adam Houseman
Source: Original Site Post
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Epistemology: Prediction vs Explanation
(Curt Doolittle December 19 at 11:24am) I classify falsifiability under ‘scope consistency’: limits, parsimony, and falsifiability. Technically they are all properties of scope. But to test scope we must test all dimensions of scope. Also, like internal consistency, I use external correspondence rather than ‘predictability’ since ‘prediction’ generally invites the ludic fallacy (probability). We cannot predict much in the economy, because any observation and measurement we make effects it. the physical sciences progress quickly because they are the most simple, because they are the least variant. social sciences advance more slowly because we adapt where the physical world can’t. So science requires that we ‘match the data’ recorded in retrospect, not that we predict. Instead, prediction is a reductio test of simple systems. Ergo, the explanation horizon depends reflects the rate of adaptation. so we must choose more prediction in some cases (physical science) and more explanatory power in other cases (social science) simply because the horizons vary so much between reaction (the physical world) and action (the social world).
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Epistemology: Prediction vs Explanation
(Curt Doolittle December 19 at 11:24am) I classify falsifiability under ‘scope consistency’: limits, parsimony, and falsifiability. Technically they are all properties of scope. But to test scope we must test all dimensions of scope. Also, like internal consistency, I use external correspondence rather than ‘predictability’ since ‘prediction’ generally invites the ludic fallacy (probability). We cannot predict much in the economy, because any observation and measurement we make effects it. the physical sciences progress quickly because they are the most simple, because they are the least variant. social sciences advance more slowly because we adapt where the physical world can’t. So science requires that we ‘match the data’ recorded in retrospect, not that we predict. Instead, prediction is a reductio test of simple systems. Ergo, the explanation horizon depends reflects the rate of adaptation. so we must choose more prediction in some cases (physical science) and more explanatory power in other cases (social science) simply because the horizons vary so much between reaction (the physical world) and action (the social world).
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Giving Up On Scientific Thought For Everyone?
(Curt Doolittle December 19 at 12:20pm) NO ARISTOCRACY OF EVERYONE, NOR SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT FOR EVERYONE. I think we need to give up on the hope that all people can be taught to think as we call ‘scientifically’ for the simple reason that as we dip below 105, the challenge becomes insurmountable. If we had the IQ of every person quoted or tested I think we would tend to have a much clearer view of ‘what people think’. We definitely have a spectrum that starts with neuroticism, progresses through paranoia, graduates to conspiracy theory, and matures in to schizophrenia – and its not an insignificant portion of the population. We definitely have a spectrum that starts with sensitive, progresses through solipsism, and matures into solipsistic paranoia. We definitely have a spectrum from needy, to extroversion, to balance, to introversion, to disconnected/withdrawn. These three traits TEND to run in families and are only mediated by familial cohesion (indoctrination). When I see quotes like this article, what I see is the “I am average” fallacy. If we had IQ markers along with our opinions then it would be a lot harder for pseudo-academics, and pseudo-intellectuals, to use SUGGESTION to deceive us by appealing to “i am average” or ‘most people are like me’.
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Giving Up On Scientific Thought For Everyone?
(Curt Doolittle December 19 at 12:20pm) NO ARISTOCRACY OF EVERYONE, NOR SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT FOR EVERYONE. I think we need to give up on the hope that all people can be taught to think as we call ‘scientifically’ for the simple reason that as we dip below 105, the challenge becomes insurmountable. If we had the IQ of every person quoted or tested I think we would tend to have a much clearer view of ‘what people think’. We definitely have a spectrum that starts with neuroticism, progresses through paranoia, graduates to conspiracy theory, and matures in to schizophrenia – and its not an insignificant portion of the population. We definitely have a spectrum that starts with sensitive, progresses through solipsism, and matures into solipsistic paranoia. We definitely have a spectrum from needy, to extroversion, to balance, to introversion, to disconnected/withdrawn. These three traits TEND to run in families and are only mediated by familial cohesion (indoctrination). When I see quotes like this article, what I see is the “I am average” fallacy. If we had IQ markers along with our opinions then it would be a lot harder for pseudo-academics, and pseudo-intellectuals, to use SUGGESTION to deceive us by appealing to “i am average” or ‘most people are like me’.
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Q&A: Martial Epistemology
—“Where did you learn that the roots of science are in martial epistemology? Who on your reading list?”— Well, it’s not a novel idea. I just frame it more precisely. I think I intuitively understood it just because of all the history I’ve read. But it was the sequence Marija Gimbutas > J. P. Mallory > Karen Armstrong that provided such consistency that I was able to make use of it.
IMHO Karen Amstrong does the best job of the worldwide analysis of the age of transformation, and the foundations of our differences as the martial structure of that time. That said, Taleb also covers it in the Black Swan when he says that military people are the least ideological because they have the most skin in the game. -
Q&A: Martial Epistemology
—“Where did you learn that the roots of science are in martial epistemology? Who on your reading list?”— Well, it’s not a novel idea. I just frame it more precisely. I think I intuitively understood it just because of all the history I’ve read. But it was the sequence Marija Gimbutas > J. P. Mallory > Karen Armstrong that provided such consistency that I was able to make use of it.
IMHO Karen Amstrong does the best job of the worldwide analysis of the age of transformation, and the foundations of our differences as the martial structure of that time. That said, Taleb also covers it in the Black Swan when he says that military people are the least ideological because they have the most skin in the game. -
Application of the Rule: Any Unlimited Organization Will Swim Left.
( Ely Harman December 20 at 11:45pm · ) Tell me where I’m wrong. Mixed male/female institutions and spaces of any size under feminism will tend to end up female dominated, or at least dominated by feminine sensibilities, if not female persons. Why? Because in any conflict between a man and a woman the woman will always have recourse to the feminine means of coercion (rallying, shaming, gossip, reputational agression.) But the first rule of feminism is that the masculine means of coercion (violence) are illegitimate, and doubly illegitimate when used, by a man, against a woman. So, if a woman gets in my face about something, anything, and begins to resort to feminine coercion. There are only 4 ways I can respond. 1) Submit. Give her what she demands. 2) Disassociate. Leave. Cut off the interaction. 3) Retaliate in kind, with feminine coercion. 4) Resort to Violence. Well, we already said 4 is ruled out. 1) Results in female domination. 2) Cedes the territory to females. 3) Is not seen as honorable behavior for men. But even if men made the adjustment and began systematically employing feminine coercion, and successfully, then feminine sensibilities prevail (through them.) The second rule of feminism is there are no exclusively male or masculine spaces or institutions. These are to be identified and subjected to feminine coercion until they are opened up to integration. What about smaller institutions, like a household? Well, a man may preserve some sovereignty within a household if he can offer benefits and therefore potentially withold them, in part, or by disassociating entirely. If the benefits are compelling enough, and their potential loss compelling enough, that can uphold certain boundaries. But as institutions are feminized and select for and promote women and effeminate men, men must progressively either accept subordinate roles and statuses within those institutions, leave, or become effeminate. And that diminishes men’s abilities to produce and to bring home benefits with which to bargain for sovereignty even in their home life. And as the relative wealth and status of men declines in society and within institutions, so must their relative status and sovereignty at home. The process of feminization must tend to proceed, therefore, until it encounters and is reversed either by violent revolt or violent conquest. Patriarchy and matriarchy are the only options, long-term. There is no stable middle ground. Which direction we are headed depends largely on whether or not, and how much, men are using violence (including against women.) But even an established matriarchy is unstable because it cannot defend itself against an external patriarchy, (or a sufficiently broad based revolt) while a patriarchy need not allow itself to be threatened by any matriarchy.
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Application of the Rule: Any Unlimited Organization Will Swim Left.
( Ely Harman December 20 at 11:45pm · ) Tell me where I’m wrong. Mixed male/female institutions and spaces of any size under feminism will tend to end up female dominated, or at least dominated by feminine sensibilities, if not female persons. Why? Because in any conflict between a man and a woman the woman will always have recourse to the feminine means of coercion (rallying, shaming, gossip, reputational agression.) But the first rule of feminism is that the masculine means of coercion (violence) are illegitimate, and doubly illegitimate when used, by a man, against a woman. So, if a woman gets in my face about something, anything, and begins to resort to feminine coercion. There are only 4 ways I can respond. 1) Submit. Give her what she demands. 2) Disassociate. Leave. Cut off the interaction. 3) Retaliate in kind, with feminine coercion. 4) Resort to Violence. Well, we already said 4 is ruled out. 1) Results in female domination. 2) Cedes the territory to females. 3) Is not seen as honorable behavior for men. But even if men made the adjustment and began systematically employing feminine coercion, and successfully, then feminine sensibilities prevail (through them.) The second rule of feminism is there are no exclusively male or masculine spaces or institutions. These are to be identified and subjected to feminine coercion until they are opened up to integration. What about smaller institutions, like a household? Well, a man may preserve some sovereignty within a household if he can offer benefits and therefore potentially withold them, in part, or by disassociating entirely. If the benefits are compelling enough, and their potential loss compelling enough, that can uphold certain boundaries. But as institutions are feminized and select for and promote women and effeminate men, men must progressively either accept subordinate roles and statuses within those institutions, leave, or become effeminate. And that diminishes men’s abilities to produce and to bring home benefits with which to bargain for sovereignty even in their home life. And as the relative wealth and status of men declines in society and within institutions, so must their relative status and sovereignty at home. The process of feminization must tend to proceed, therefore, until it encounters and is reversed either by violent revolt or violent conquest. Patriarchy and matriarchy are the only options, long-term. There is no stable middle ground. Which direction we are headed depends largely on whether or not, and how much, men are using violence (including against women.) But even an established matriarchy is unstable because it cannot defend itself against an external patriarchy, (or a sufficiently broad based revolt) while a patriarchy need not allow itself to be threatened by any matriarchy.
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Sequence: Scale and Boundaries
—“This scales along a continuum (with increasing fragility and negative effects as scale increases): The tribe is a softening of family boundaries through intermarriage and mutually beneficial collective action. The nation state is a dissolution of tribal boundaries through ideology or forced submission. Globalism is the suppression of nation state boundaries through fraud and deceit.”— #barbarianeconomist