by Michael Churchill
NFLX and TSLA look insane to me. Not at all clear to me that there is any sort of calc that has TSLA with normal gross margins. NFLX capitalizes content costs, which is like Caterpillar capitalizing the cost of making tractors. Buying/making content is cost of goods sold — not capex!
GOOG, FB and MSFT make a lot of money and valuations are not crazy.
AMZN is insane in the same way that NFLX and TSLA are. The operating margins on selling books are WILDLY negative — and only offset by the cloud-services business. Now … that doesn’t seem right from an anti-trust standpoint. Amazon is using cloud money to wipe out the entire country’s retail infrastructure. How about a Sherman anti-trust case against them?
Source: Original Site Post
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5114511/What-consciousness-not-drives-human-mind.html -
Untitled
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5114511/What-consciousness-not-drives-human-mind.html -
In the studies I have seen, the average man experiences 20% decline in the stand
In the studies I have seen, the average man experiences 20% decline in the standard of living by trading income for sex, companionship, and residency with a woman. This amounts to the average free capital generated by all men (about 1/5). It requires about 20% free capital for humans to change ‘routines’. Men are a bit more expensive to feed, but otherwise cheaper to maintain than women. Men have a shorter working life (We accumulate the species’ cellular damage on behalf of women and children). We mature intellectually and emotionally fairly slowly in exchange for specialization. But that specialization, which can lead to superior incomes, but also leads to limited adaptability in the work force where regimentation is lacking and social fitness is required (the modern white collar work force). So for men, the problem with late maturity, specialization, and limited work life means that failures to capture higher earnings means old age poverty. Now, if the woman is working, and the couple save that 20% in equity for seven years on a 15 year mortgage they can somewhat offset the loss. Friends, good work, and an anti-depressant will offset the demand for sex, and increase a man’s ability to build a business or portfolio. Girlfriends are the most inexpensive sex you can obtain, and if rotated every 9-12 months the cost of marriage can be avoided. A woman trades her fertile years for increased income. A man trades his productive years for later term care. A working woman externalizes the cost of raising her children to the state, and by proxy to others. This is the trade that no longer exists. And it’s rather obvious what must be done about it: convert men’s short term productivity to long term savings, and permanently isolate it from attachment or taxation, as the most important investment. In other words, restore the order that has existed since the dawn of time. Common property requires common productivity, risk, and reward. Statistically speaking women are an extraordinarily privileged class. -
In the studies I have seen, the average man experiences 20% decline in the stand
In the studies I have seen, the average man experiences 20% decline in the standard of living by trading income for sex, companionship, and residency with a woman. This amounts to the average free capital generated by all men (about 1/5). It requires about 20% free capital for humans to change ‘routines’. Men are a bit more expensive to feed, but otherwise cheaper to maintain than women. Men have a shorter working life (We accumulate the species’ cellular damage on behalf of women and children). We mature intellectually and emotionally fairly slowly in exchange for specialization. But that specialization, which can lead to superior incomes, but also leads to limited adaptability in the work force where regimentation is lacking and social fitness is required (the modern white collar work force). So for men, the problem with late maturity, specialization, and limited work life means that failures to capture higher earnings means old age poverty. Now, if the woman is working, and the couple save that 20% in equity for seven years on a 15 year mortgage they can somewhat offset the loss. Friends, good work, and an anti-depressant will offset the demand for sex, and increase a man’s ability to build a business or portfolio. Girlfriends are the most inexpensive sex you can obtain, and if rotated every 9-12 months the cost of marriage can be avoided. A woman trades her fertile years for increased income. A man trades his productive years for later term care. A working woman externalizes the cost of raising her children to the state, and by proxy to others. This is the trade that no longer exists. And it’s rather obvious what must be done about it: convert men’s short term productivity to long term savings, and permanently isolate it from attachment or taxation, as the most important investment. In other words, restore the order that has existed since the dawn of time. Common property requires common productivity, risk, and reward. Statistically speaking women are an extraordinarily privileged class. -
What Do You Mean By “True”?
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY “TRUE”? A commensurable common language consists of constant relations. In response to any substantive innovation, we falsify some relations, redefine others, and create others. Which in turn requires falsification of some existing terms, redefinition of others, and the creation of yet still others. Yet, what is the minimum reformation of categories, relations and values, and reformation of accompanying language, and illustrative narratives that demonstrate those relations, before that new organization of categories, relations and values is shared? It’s non trivial. It’s less work when that reformation is desirable, and it’s more work when it is undesirable. [D]ECIDABLE: In the REVERSE: In logic we state that a question (statement) is DECIDABLE if an algorithm (set of operations) exists within the limits of the system (rules, axioms, theories) that can produce a decision (choice). In other words, if the sufficient information for the decision is present within the system (ie: is decidable). In the OBVERSE: Instead, we should determine if there is a means of choosing without the need for additional information supplied from outside the system (ie: not discretionary). Or in simple terms, if DISCRETION is unnecessary, a proposition is decidable. This separates reason (or calculation in the wider sense) from computation (algorithm). || TAUTOLOGY < ANALYTIC TRUTH < (IDEAL) TRUTH < TRUTHFULNESS < HONESTY < IMPULSE TAUTOLOGY: Marginally indifferent means of expressing constant relations. ANALYTIC TRUTH: Internally consistent, independent of external correspondence. In the construction of proofs, open to substitution and independent of context, we produce tests of internal consistency (generally speaking, the preservation of ratios). Or more simply, the preservation of constant relations. [T]RUTH: That testimony (description) you would give, if your knowledge (information) was complete, your language was sufficient, stated without error, cleansed of bias, and absent deceit, within the scope of precision limited to the context of the question you wish to answer; and the promise that another possessed of the same knowledge (information), performing the same due diligence, having the same experiences, would provide the same testimony. [T]RUTHFULNESS: that testimony (description) you give if your knowledge (information) is incomplete, your language is insufficient, you have performed due diligence in the elimination of error, imaginary content, wishful thinking, bias, and deceit; within the scope of precision limited to the question you wish to answer; and which you warranty to be so; and the promise that another possessed of the knowledge, performing the same due diligence, having the same experiences, would provide the same testimony. [H]ONESTY: that testimony (description) you give with full knowledge that knowledge is incomplete, your language is insufficient, but you have not performed due diligence in the elimination of error and bias, but which you warranty is free of deceit; within the scope of precision limited to the question you wish to answer; and the promise that another possess of the same knowledge (information), performing the same due diligence, having the same experiences, would provide the same testimony. [D]emand for Truth (Decidability): True enough to imagine a conceptual relationship True enough for me to feel good about myself. True enough for me to take actions that produce positive results. True enough for me to not cause others to react negatively to me. True enough to resolve a conflict without subjective opinion among my fellow people with similar values. True enough to resolve a conflict without subjective opinion across different peoples with different values. True regardless of all opinions or perspectives. Tautologically true: in that the two things are equal. [D]ue Diligence necessary for Warranty that our Testimony is Truthful. 1) Have we achieved identity? Is it categorically consistent? 2) Is it internally consistent? Is it logical? Can we construct a proof(test) of internal consistency? 3) Is it externally correspondent, and sufficiently parsimonious? Can we construct a proof (test) of external correspondence. 4) Is it existentially possible? Is it operationally articulated? Can we construct a proof (test) of existential possibility? And is it free of imaginary content when we articulate it as such? 6) Is it a rational choice (praxeological)? 7) Is it morally constrained? Does it violate the incentive to cooperate? (Meaning, are all operations productive, fully informed, warrantied, voluntary transfers, free of negative externality of the same criterion?) 8) Is it limited? Do you know it’s boundaries (falsification) 9) Is it fully accounted? Do we account for all costs to all capital in all temporal and inter-temporal dimensions? (Have we avoided selection bias?) Can we construct a proof (test) of full accounting? (Is information lost or artificially gained?) [F]alsehood Techniques. 1) Ignorance 2) Error 3) Bias, and Wishful thinking 4) Loading, Framing, Suggestion Obscurantism, 5) Fiction, Inflation, Conflation 6) Fictionalism (idealism, pseudoscience, supernaturalism, (primary means of overloading) 7) Deceit. (full fiction) 8) (Conspiracy – Scale 2) 9) (Propagandism – Scale 3) 10) (Institutionalization – Scale 4) If you cannot answer these questions or do not understand them you cannot know if you speak the truth, or if you are polluting the commons with fantasy, bias, error, or deception. EVIL < IMMORAL < UNETHICAL < |AMORAL| > ETHICAL > MORAL > GOOD. MORAL (USAGE) The term “Moral” can be used in a specific sense or a general sense. Either as behavior that imposes costs anonymously and indirectly, or as a general term to refer to all moral, ethical, and criminal behavior. Specific: 0) In the series criminal, ethical, and moral, criminal refers to overt crimes, ethical to crimes of interpersonal informational asymmetry (crimes against a person you deal with), and moral to indirect crimes of informational asymmetry (crimes against the social order). General: 1) Objective (decidable) morality: non imposition / reciprocity (Productive, fully informed, warrantied, voluntary transfer, free of imposition of costs against demonstrated investments by externality.) 2) Normative morality: that portfolio of norms that in the aggregate produce a group evolutionary strategy, and therefore immoral and moral actions may be judged objectively or normatively. 3) Subjective moral intuitions: that moral intuition we possess because of the combination of genetics, environment and training, and our attempt to survive genetic , social, and economic competition. These may be judged normatively and objectively. 4) Fictional Morality: those wishful arguments we make.. etc. These may be judged subjectively, normatively, and objectively. CLOSING The question is, how can we speak in a manner that limits the semantics, grammar, and syntax to constant relations that are invulnerable to, resistant to, or which expose, the various falsehoods that skew, eliminate, or replace, existing constant relations? -
What Do You Mean By “True”?
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY “TRUE”? A commensurable common language consists of constant relations. In response to any substantive innovation, we falsify some relations, redefine others, and create others. Which in turn requires falsification of some existing terms, redefinition of others, and the creation of yet still others. Yet, what is the minimum reformation of categories, relations and values, and reformation of accompanying language, and illustrative narratives that demonstrate those relations, before that new organization of categories, relations and values is shared? It’s non trivial. It’s less work when that reformation is desirable, and it’s more work when it is undesirable. [D]ECIDABLE: In the REVERSE: In logic we state that a question (statement) is DECIDABLE if an algorithm (set of operations) exists within the limits of the system (rules, axioms, theories) that can produce a decision (choice). In other words, if the sufficient information for the decision is present within the system (ie: is decidable). In the OBVERSE: Instead, we should determine if there is a means of choosing without the need for additional information supplied from outside the system (ie: not discretionary). Or in simple terms, if DISCRETION is unnecessary, a proposition is decidable. This separates reason (or calculation in the wider sense) from computation (algorithm). || TAUTOLOGY < ANALYTIC TRUTH < (IDEAL) TRUTH < TRUTHFULNESS < HONESTY < IMPULSE TAUTOLOGY: Marginally indifferent means of expressing constant relations. ANALYTIC TRUTH: Internally consistent, independent of external correspondence. In the construction of proofs, open to substitution and independent of context, we produce tests of internal consistency (generally speaking, the preservation of ratios). Or more simply, the preservation of constant relations. [T]RUTH: That testimony (description) you would give, if your knowledge (information) was complete, your language was sufficient, stated without error, cleansed of bias, and absent deceit, within the scope of precision limited to the context of the question you wish to answer; and the promise that another possessed of the same knowledge (information), performing the same due diligence, having the same experiences, would provide the same testimony. [T]RUTHFULNESS: that testimony (description) you give if your knowledge (information) is incomplete, your language is insufficient, you have performed due diligence in the elimination of error, imaginary content, wishful thinking, bias, and deceit; within the scope of precision limited to the question you wish to answer; and which you warranty to be so; and the promise that another possessed of the knowledge, performing the same due diligence, having the same experiences, would provide the same testimony. [H]ONESTY: that testimony (description) you give with full knowledge that knowledge is incomplete, your language is insufficient, but you have not performed due diligence in the elimination of error and bias, but which you warranty is free of deceit; within the scope of precision limited to the question you wish to answer; and the promise that another possess of the same knowledge (information), performing the same due diligence, having the same experiences, would provide the same testimony. [D]emand for Truth (Decidability): True enough to imagine a conceptual relationship True enough for me to feel good about myself. True enough for me to take actions that produce positive results. True enough for me to not cause others to react negatively to me. True enough to resolve a conflict without subjective opinion among my fellow people with similar values. True enough to resolve a conflict without subjective opinion across different peoples with different values. True regardless of all opinions or perspectives. Tautologically true: in that the two things are equal. [D]ue Diligence necessary for Warranty that our Testimony is Truthful. 1) Have we achieved identity? Is it categorically consistent? 2) Is it internally consistent? Is it logical? Can we construct a proof(test) of internal consistency? 3) Is it externally correspondent, and sufficiently parsimonious? Can we construct a proof (test) of external correspondence. 4) Is it existentially possible? Is it operationally articulated? Can we construct a proof (test) of existential possibility? And is it free of imaginary content when we articulate it as such? 6) Is it a rational choice (praxeological)? 7) Is it morally constrained? Does it violate the incentive to cooperate? (Meaning, are all operations productive, fully informed, warrantied, voluntary transfers, free of negative externality of the same criterion?) 8) Is it limited? Do you know it’s boundaries (falsification) 9) Is it fully accounted? Do we account for all costs to all capital in all temporal and inter-temporal dimensions? (Have we avoided selection bias?) Can we construct a proof (test) of full accounting? (Is information lost or artificially gained?) [F]alsehood Techniques. 1) Ignorance 2) Error 3) Bias, and Wishful thinking 4) Loading, Framing, Suggestion Obscurantism, 5) Fiction, Inflation, Conflation 6) Fictionalism (idealism, pseudoscience, supernaturalism, (primary means of overloading) 7) Deceit. (full fiction) 8) (Conspiracy – Scale 2) 9) (Propagandism – Scale 3) 10) (Institutionalization – Scale 4) If you cannot answer these questions or do not understand them you cannot know if you speak the truth, or if you are polluting the commons with fantasy, bias, error, or deception. EVIL < IMMORAL < UNETHICAL < |AMORAL| > ETHICAL > MORAL > GOOD. MORAL (USAGE) The term “Moral” can be used in a specific sense or a general sense. Either as behavior that imposes costs anonymously and indirectly, or as a general term to refer to all moral, ethical, and criminal behavior. Specific: 0) In the series criminal, ethical, and moral, criminal refers to overt crimes, ethical to crimes of interpersonal informational asymmetry (crimes against a person you deal with), and moral to indirect crimes of informational asymmetry (crimes against the social order). General: 1) Objective (decidable) morality: non imposition / reciprocity (Productive, fully informed, warrantied, voluntary transfer, free of imposition of costs against demonstrated investments by externality.) 2) Normative morality: that portfolio of norms that in the aggregate produce a group evolutionary strategy, and therefore immoral and moral actions may be judged objectively or normatively. 3) Subjective moral intuitions: that moral intuition we possess because of the combination of genetics, environment and training, and our attempt to survive genetic , social, and economic competition. These may be judged normatively and objectively. 4) Fictional Morality: those wishful arguments we make.. etc. These may be judged subjectively, normatively, and objectively. CLOSING The question is, how can we speak in a manner that limits the semantics, grammar, and syntax to constant relations that are invulnerable to, resistant to, or which expose, the various falsehoods that skew, eliminate, or replace, existing constant relations? -
Remington will go upside down relatively soon. Colt is still trying to recover f
Remington will go upside down relatively soon. Colt is still trying to recover from Bankruptcy. But the underlying issue is fairly simple: all technical innovation in firearms has been coming (as expected) from belgian, german, and austrian engineers. The most popular weapon in the states is effectively open sourced (the AR15) – so much so that like gaming computers and harley davidson’s it’s a kit-gun open for constant customization. The AR15/M4 is actually a poor quality platform – it’s just cheap, light, and reasonably accurate. While the plastic gun craze of the 80s-00’s resulted in a ridiculous number of failed designs, we seem to be exiting that period. And aside from Smith and Wesson, it doesn’t appear that american companies can come close to the production quality of FN/Steyr/HK/Glock. And given that there are no patents on some of the most popular guns (CZ/1911), and that nearly anyone can buy CAD/CAM systems with barrels being the only particularly challenging bit of technology, it’s just …. well, not a good market for americans. I see it as a continuation of the american design ethic, business ethic. We are sort of like the brits now. We can only make labor intensive products with heavy adult supervision. -
Remington will go upside down relatively soon. Colt is still trying to recover f
Remington will go upside down relatively soon. Colt is still trying to recover from Bankruptcy. But the underlying issue is fairly simple: all technical innovation in firearms has been coming (as expected) from belgian, german, and austrian engineers. The most popular weapon in the states is effectively open sourced (the AR15) – so much so that like gaming computers and harley davidson’s it’s a kit-gun open for constant customization. The AR15/M4 is actually a poor quality platform – it’s just cheap, light, and reasonably accurate. While the plastic gun craze of the 80s-00’s resulted in a ridiculous number of failed designs, we seem to be exiting that period. And aside from Smith and Wesson, it doesn’t appear that american companies can come close to the production quality of FN/Steyr/HK/Glock. And given that there are no patents on some of the most popular guns (CZ/1911), and that nearly anyone can buy CAD/CAM systems with barrels being the only particularly challenging bit of technology, it’s just …. well, not a good market for americans. I see it as a continuation of the american design ethic, business ethic. We are sort of like the brits now. We can only make labor intensive products with heavy adult supervision. -
Tesla
(via Vincent Wolters at Seeking Alpha) TSLA gross margin excluding R&D is comparable to that of competitors. (~25%) TSLA SG&A per revenue is higher than that of competitors and just about wipes out gross profits. There is no indication of economies of scale in spite of increased production. Expansion will not lead to profits if Tesla doesn’t change its cost structure. CURT: (This is being critical of overhead costs – which are, admittedly, nonsense-high, but neither acknowledging that revenues purpose is to offset R&D costs, and the analyst is not putting value on the upside. They’re using the amazon model and betting that they will own the battery market, and therefore the whole car market. IMO this is exactly how leaps in technology should be achieved: public investment (with non-voting public ownership), and funnelling all profits into R&D and market expansion. Markets do not produce capital intensive leaps as fast as mixed market investments.