Source: Facebook

  • FAILURE POINTS: MALE, PACK, (K) vs FEMALE, HERD, (R) by Bill Joslin Friend or Fo

    FAILURE POINTS: MALE, PACK, (K) vs FEMALE, HERD, (R)

    by Bill Joslin

    Friend or Foe Detection Failures for Each Bias:

    1. FEMALE: far left presume everyone is a friend (Failed Foe Detection)

    2. MALE: failed right presume everyone’s an enemy (Failed Friend Detection

    (Curt: I’ve been looking for that rule. Well done!)


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-10 11:31:00 UTC

  • WISDOM LEARNED AND WISDOM EARNED: WE ARE SELF DOMESTICATING —“The hardest thin

    WISDOM LEARNED AND WISDOM EARNED: WE ARE SELF DOMESTICATING

    —“The hardest thing over the last few years I’ve had to come to accept has had to be be the proposition that “we are self-domesticating.” That we must own efforts in every “agent-arena” relationship because no one but us will. For those of us like myself that “wandered through the existential desert”, wasting years of life without guidance, that we must climb near-vertical trajectories. All the while respecting Hanlon’s Razor[1] as you brush arms with others. It’s tough at times. The etiquette and refinement is a lifelong investment. It doesn’t get easier, you just get better. All the while expecting nothing, keeping humility, etc.”— Todd E. Magnusson

    Elegant. Honest. Heartfelt. From experience. True.

    Staying on message: This is the reason we need to teach the stoic method as basic emotional fitness. It provides mindfulness without the need for falsehoods (religion). Realism, Naturalism, Empiricism, Operationalism, Acquisitionism-Propertarianism, Cooperationism, Reciprocity, Reciprocity to our Ancestors, Mindfulness.

    That is the only ‘True’ Religion we know of.



    [1] Hanlon’s Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-10 11:02:00 UTC

  • ARABS FAIL: TRUST (FAMILISM, HONOR IN DECEPTION) Source: Excerpt from meforum.or

    http://meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-warsWHY ARABS FAIL: TRUST (FAMILISM, HONOR IN DECEPTION)

    Source: Excerpt from meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars http://meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars

    (Conversely: Staying on message: Islamism like Judaism (or christianity) is exceptional at undermining.)

    1. First, the well-known lack of trust among Arabs for anyone outside their own family adversely affects offensive operations.26 Exceptions to this pattern are limited to elite units (which throughout the Arab world have the same duty—to protect the regime, rather than the country). In a culture in which almost every sphere of human endeavor, including business and social relationships, is based on a family structure, this orientation is also present in the military, particularly in the stress of battle. Offensive action, basically, consists of fire and maneuver. The maneuver element must be confident that supporting units or arms are providing covering fire. If there is a lack of trust in that support, getting troops moving forward against dug-in defenders is possible only by officers getting out front and leading, something that has not been a characteristic of Arab leadership.

    2. Second, the complex mosaic system of peoples creates additional problems for training, as rulers in the Middle East make use of the sectarian and tribal loyalties to maintain power. The ‘Alawi minority controls Syria, East Bankers control Jordan, Sunnis control Iraq, and Nejdis control Saudi Arabia. This has direct implications for the military, where sectarian considerations affect assignments and promotions. Some minorities (such the Circassians in Jordan or the Druze in Syria) tie their well-being to the ruling elite and perform critical protection roles; others (such as the Shi’a of Iraq) are excluded from the officer corps. In any case, the assignment of officers based on sectarian considerations works against assignments based on merit.

    The same lack of trust operates at the interstate level, where Arab armies exhibit very little trust of each other, and with good reason. The blatant lie Gamal Abdel Nasser told King Husayn in June 1967 to get him into the war against Israel—that the Egyptian air force was over Tel Aviv (when most of its planes had been destroyed)—was a classic example of deceit.27 Sadat’s disingenuous approach to the Syrians to entice them to enter the war in October 1973 was another (he told them that the Egyptians were planning total war, a deception which included using a second set of operational plans intended only for Syrian eyes).28 With this sort of history, it is no wonder that there is very little cross or joint training among Arab armies and very few command exercises. During the 1967 war, for example, not a single Jordanian liaison officer was stationed in Egypt, nor were the Jordanians forthcoming with the Egyptian command.29

    3. Third, Middle Eastern rulers routinely rely on balance-of-power techniques to maintain their authority.30 They use competing organizations, duplicate agencies, and coercive structures dependent upon the ruler’s whim. This makes building any form of personal power base difficult, if not impossible, and keeps the leadership apprehensive and off-balance, never secure in its careers or social position. The same applies within the military; a powerful chairman of the joint chiefs is inconceivable.

    Joint commands are paper constructs that have little actual function. Leaders look at joint commands, joint exercises, combined arms, and integrated staffs very cautiously for all Arab armies are a double-edged sword. One edge points toward the external enemy and the other toward the capital. The land forces are at once a regime-maintenance force and threat at the same time. No Arab ruler will allow combined operations or training to become routine; the usual excuse is financial expense, but that is unconvincing given their frequent purchase of hardware whose maintenance costs they cannot afford. In fact, combined arms exercises and joint staffs create familiarity, soften rivalries, erase suspicions, and eliminate the fragmented, competing organizations that enable rulers to play off rivals against one another. This situation is most clearly seen in Saudi Arabia, where the land forces and aviation are under the minister of defense, Prince Sultan, while the National Guard is under Prince Abdullah, the deputy prime minister and crown prince. In Egypt, the Central Security Forces balance the army. In Iraq and Syria, the Republican Guard does the balancing.

    Politicians actually create obstacles to maintain fragmentation. For example, obtaining aircraft from the air force for army airborne training, whether it is a joint exercise or a simple administrative request for support of training, must generally be coordinated by the heads of services at the ministry of defense; if a large number of aircraft are involved, this probably requires presidential approval. Military coups may be out of style, but the fear of them remains strong. Any large-scale exercise of land forces is a matter of concern to the government and is closely observed, particularly if live ammunition is being used. In Saudi Arabia a complex system of clearances required from area military commanders and provincial governors, all of whom have differing command channels to secure road convoy permission, obtaining ammunition, and conducting exercises, means that in order for a coup to work, it would require a massive amount of loyal conspirators. Arab regimes have learned how to be coup-proof.Updated Jan 9, 2020, 5:45 PM


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 17:45:00 UTC

  • YOU WANT PARSIMONY? 😉 RECIPE 1. A Heroic Narrative of Truth, Duty, Oath and Con

    YOU WANT PARSIMONY? 😉

    RECIPE

    1. A Heroic Narrative of Truth, Duty, Oath and Contract, Heroism, Excellence, Achievement, Mindfulness and The direction of dominance expression to the production of commons.

    2. Ethnocentrism, Nationalism, The universal military as the polity, The individual as the subject of Law and the Family as the subject of Policy

    3. Aristotelianism: Realism, Naturalism, Operationalism, Empiricism, Testimonial Truth (science)

    4. Rule of law by Natural Law of Reciprocity and markets in everything, including a Market for the Suppression of parasitism in court

    5. A Power Distribution of law, Pareto Distribution of Capital, and Nash Distribution of Returns.

    6. A majority genetic middle class and the suppression of the reproduction of the underclass (unproductive).

    DEPENDENCIES IN TESTIMONY

    1. Realism >

    2. Naturalism >

    3. Empiricism >

    4. Operationalism >

    … 5. Acquisition >

    … 6. Rational Choice – Demonstrated Preference >

    … 7. Reciprocity >

    8. Power Distribution of Law >

    9. Pareto Distribution of Assets >

    10. Nash Distribution of Rewards:

    11. Consistency, Coherence, Limits, Completeness

    12. Warrantied, within the Bounds of Restitution.

    WISDOM LITERATURES

    Aristotle….Rea|/Natural: ……….. ..Science (Decidability) Law

    Plato: ……. ..ldea|/Natural: ……….. ..Sophistry (Justification) Philo

    Confucian: Real/Myth-Natural:….~Reason(Harmony) Reason

    Hindu: …… ..UnreaI/Supernatura|..Wisdom (Harmony) Mytho.

    Persian …. ..Unrea|/Supernatura|…Wisdom (?) Mytho/Philo.

    Egyptian….UnreaI/Supernatura|…Wisdom (Order) Mytho.

    Semiticz…..Unrea|/Supernatura|:..Fraud(Authority) Theo.

    We are forever bound by the grammars of our wisdom literatures. (Grammar: paradigms, vocabulary, logic, grammar)

    WE INVENTED TRUTH AND THEY INVENTED LYING IN RESPONSE

    …. ..Female and Semitic vs Male and European

    ………………. ..Dysgenics vs Eugenics

    ………….. ..Consumption vs Capitalization

    ….Private Consumption vs Commons Production

    ……………..Undermining vs Order

    …Approva|/Disapproval vs True/False

    ………….|ncrementaIism vs zero tolerance

    …..PIausib|e Deniability vs Warranty

    …………………… ..GSRRM vs Truth Regardless of Cost

    …………………… ..Critique vs Falsification

    ………………………. ..Pi|puI vs Justification

    ………….. ..FaIse Promise vs Promise

    ……..Baiting into Hazard vs Offers of Reciprocity

    ……………………One Herd vs Many Packs

    GRAMMARS

    (Deflationary Grammars)

    Logic

    … Math

    … … Algorithms

    … … … Recipes, Protocols

    … … … … Sciences

    … … … … … The Law (Descriptive Grammar)

    … … … … Narration (history)

    … … … Fiction

    … … Fictionaisms

    … Deceit

    Fraud

    (Inflationary Grammars)

    DECEITS

    … Deceits

    … … … Fictionalism

    … … … …. Pseudoscience -> Magic

    … … … …. Idealism-> Surrealism, and

    … … … …. Supernaturalism->Occult

    === LIST (W/O DEFLATIONARY GRAMMARS) ===

    THE SPECTRUM :

    1. Sense(stimuli)

    … … Perception (composition)

    … … … Association

    2. Logic Facility (constant relations)

    … … Imagination Facility (prediction)

    … … … Reason Facility (comparison, permutation)

    3. Grammar facility (statements)

    … … Paradigms (‘metaphysics’, ‘dimensions’)

    … … Vocabulary

    … … … Sounds

    … … … Signs (acts, actions)

    … … … Marks (records)

    … … … … accidental

    … … … … intentional

    … … … … … Mark

    … … … … … Symbol

    … … … … … … Glyph

    … … … … … Pictogram

    … … … … … Picture

    … … … … … Picture Series

    … … … … … Animation

    4. Communication Facility (“Language”)

    … Truths

    … … Logics (deflationary Grammars)

    … … Mathematics

    … … Sciences

    … … Rhetoric (argumentative, persuasive Grammars)

    … Descriptions

    … … Testimony

    … Ordinary Language

    … Narrations (inflationary Grammars)

    … … Narrative (description)

    … … … Storytelling (loading, framing)

    … Deceits

    … … … Fictionalism

    … … … …. Pseudoscience -> Magic

    … … … …. Idealism-> Surrealism, and

    … … … …. Supernaturalism->Occult

    … … … Obscurantism (Obscuring, Overloading)

    … … … … Propaganda

    … … … Misdirection (Deceit)

    … … … Fraud (for gain)

    … … … Harm (Evil, for harm regardless of gain)


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 17:03:00 UTC

  • constitution work is … painful and slow right now

    constitution work is … painful and slow right now.


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 16:09:00 UTC

  • (Felt the flu or a cold coming on for a few days, felt it catch yesterday, made

    (Felt the flu or a cold coming on for a few days, felt it catch yesterday, made a gallon of chicken soup, bundled up, slept for almost twelve hours. This has got to be my last winter in rural new england.)


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 16:08:00 UTC

  • STOICISM’S ANSWER TO MINDFULNESS Missed this, but omfg, yes it’s that simple. I

    STOICISM’S ANSWER TO MINDFULNESS

    Missed this, but omfg, yes it’s that simple.

    I am a Stoic if:

    1) I live in accordance with natural law and reason;

    2) I avoid fallacy of sunk costs in everything;

    3) I limit my attention to what is actionable;

    4) I am never a victim of circumstances as I always have a choice to change them.

    As far as I know, this is all that is required of me to be a Stoic.

    – @[1655513331:2048:Martin Štěpán]

    In effect, mindfulness provides control of loss aversion and all the subsequent feeling of being ‘out of control’ of one’s environment. Saying “it’s god’s plan” does exactly the same thing”. The difference being that under stoicism you are in control and under theology the big man in the sky is in control.

    Why? Because we are twice as motivate by fear of lass as we are by incentive to gain.

    Why? Because we know most of our theories (plans) fail.

    Why? Because of neural economy, mental calculation (thinking) is expensive, error prone, but we must maintain the will to act in the kaleidic universe so we preserve the illusion.

    SUNK COSTS

    Fallacy of sunken cost is when you consider something you’ve already invested into more valuable even though that investment doesn’t exist anymore. I.e. I might keep repairing an old car I’ve already poured lots of money into despite the fact that I’d save money by replacing it with a better because I fallaciously include what I paid in the value of the old one.

    In Stoicism, I can use the most extreme example provided by Epictetus. If my child dies, there’s no sense in getting emotional over it because that investment is gone and I can’t get it back.

    LOSS AVERSION

    Loss aversion is encapsulated in the expression “losses loom larger than gains” The pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. People are more willing to take risks (or behave dishonestly) to avoid a loss than to make a gain. Loss aversion has been used to explain the endowment effect and sunk cost fallacy, and it may also play a role in the status quo bias.

    The basic principle of loss aversion can explain why penalty frames are sometimes more effective than reward frames in motivating people.

    REGRET AVERSION

    When people fear that their decision will turn out to be wrong in hindsight, they exhibit regret aversion. Regret-averse people may fear the consequences of both errors of omission (e.g. not buying the right investment property) and commission (e.g. buying the wrong investment property) (Seiler et al., 2008). The effect of anticipated regret is particularly well-studied in the domain of health, such as people’s decisions about medical treatments. A meta-analysis in this area suggests that anticipated regret is a better predictor of intentions and behavior than other kinds of anticipated negative emotions and evaluations of risk (Brewer et al., 2016).

    MENTAL ACCOUNTING

    Mental accounting is when people think of value in relative rather than absolute terms. They derive pleasure not just from an object’s value, but also the quality of the deal – its transaction utility (Thaler, 1985). In addition, humans often fail to fully consider opportunity costs (tradeoffs) and are susceptible to the sunk cost fallacy.

    Why are people willing to spend more when they pay with a credit card than cash? Why would more individuals spend $10 on a theater ticket if they had just lost a $10 bill than if they had to replace a lost ticket worth $10? Why are people more likely to spend a small inheritance and invest a large one?

    According to the theory of mental accounting, people treat money differently, depending on factors such as the money’s origin and intended use, rather than thinking of it in terms of the “bottom line” as in formal accounting (Thaler, 1999). An important term underlying the theory is fungibility, the fact that all money is interchangable and has no labels. In mental accounting, people treat assets as less fungible than they really are. Even seasoned investors are susceptible to this bias when they view recent gains as disposable “house money” that can be used in high-risk investments. In doing so, they make decisions on each mental account separately, losing out the big picture of the portfolio.

    Consumers’ tendency to work with mental accounts is reflected in various domains of applied behavioral science, especially in the financial services industry. Examples include banks offering multiple accounts with savings goal labels, which make mental accounting more explicit, as well as third-party services that provide consumers with aggregate financial information across different financial institutions

    ENDOWMENT EFFECT

    This bias occurs when we overvalue something that we own, regardless of its objective market value. It is evident when people become relatively reluctant to part with a good they own for its cash equivalent, or if the amount that people are willing to pay for the good is lower than what they are willing to accept when selling it. Put more simply, people place a greater value on things once they have established ownership. This is especially true for things that wouldn’t normally be bought or sold on the market, usually items with symbolic, experiential, or emotional significance. Endowment effect research has been conducted with goods ranging from coffee mugs to sports cards (List, 2011). While researchers have proposed different reasons for the effect, it may be best explained by psychological factors related to loss aversion.

    STATUS QUO BIAS

    Status quo bias is evident when people prefer things to stay the same by doing nothing (see also inertia) or by sticking with a decision made previously. This may happen even when only small transition costs are involved and the importance of the decision is great.

    Field data from university health plan enrollments, for example, show a large disparity in health plan choices between new and existing enrollees. One particular plan with significantly more favorable premiums and deductibles had a growing market share among new employees, but a significantly lower share among older enrollees. This suggests that a lack of switching could not be explained by unchanging preferences.

    Samuelson and Zeckhauser note that status quo bias is consistent with loss aversion, and that it could be psychologically explained by previously made commitments, sunk cost thinking, cognitive dissonance, a need to feel in control, and regret avoidance. The latter is based on Kahneman and Tversky’s observation that people feel greater regret for bad outcomes that result from new actions taken than for bad consequences that are the consequence of inaction.

    While status quo bias is frequently considered to be irrational, sticking to choices that worked in the past is often a safe and less difficult decision due to informational and cognitive limitations (see bounded rationality). For example, status quo bias is more likely when there is choice overload or high uncertainty and deliberation costs.

    COMMITMENT BIAS

    Commitments (see also precommitment) are often used as a tool to counteract people’s lack of willpower and to achieve behavior change, such as in the areas of dieting or saving. The greater the cost of breaking a commitment, the more effective it is (Dolan et al., 2010). From the perspective of social psychology, individuals are motivated to maintain a consistent and positive self-image (Cialdini, 2008), and they are likely to keep commitments to avoid reputational damage (if done publicly) and/or cognitive dissonance (Festinger, 1957). A field experiment in a hotel, for example, found 25% greater towel reuse among guests who made a commitment to reuse towels at check-in and wore a “Friend of the Earth” lapel pin to signal their commitment during their stay (Baca-Motes et al., 2012). The behavior change technique of ‘goal setting’ is related to making commitments (Strecher et al., 1995), while reciprocity involves an implicit commitment.

    ACTION BIAS

    Some core ideas in behavioral economics focus on people’s propensity to do nothing, as evident in default bias and status quo bias. Inaction may be due to a number of factors, including inertia or anticipated regret. However, sometimes people have an impulse to act in order to gain a sense of control over a situation and eliminate a problem. This has been termed the action bias (Patt & Zeckhauser, 2000). For example, a person may opt for a medical treatment rather than a no-treatment alternative, even though clinical trials have not supported the treatment’s effectiveness.

    Action bias is particularly likely to occur if we do something for others or others expect us to act (see social norms), as illustrated by the tendency for soccer goal keepers to jump to left or right on penalty kicks, even though statistically they would be better off if they just stayed in the middle of the goal (Bar-Eli et al., 2007). Action bias may also be more likely among overconfident individuals or if a person has experienced prior negative outcomes (Zeelenberg et al., 2002), where subsequent inaction would be a failure to do something to improve the situation.

    INFORMATION AVOIDANCE

    Information avoidance in behavioral economics (Golman et al., 2017) refers to situations in which people choose not to obtain knowledge that is freely available. Active information avoidance includes physical avoidance, inattention, the biased interpretation of information (see also confirmation bias) and even some forms of forgetting. In behavioral finance, for example, research has shown that investors are less likely to check their portfolio online when the stock market is down than when it is up, which has been termed the ostrich effect (Karlsson et al., 2009). More serious cases of avoidance happen when people fail to return to clinics to get medical test results, for instance (Sullivan et al., 2004).

    While information avoidance is sometimes strategic, it can have immediate hedonic benefits for people if it prevents the negative (usually psychological) consequences of knowing the information. It usually carries negative utility in the long term, because it deprives people of potentially useful information for decision making and feedback for future behavior. Furthermore, information avoidance can contribute to a polarization of political opinions and media bias.

    CONFIRMATION BIAS

    Confirmation bias (Wason, 1960) occurs when people seek out or evaluate information in a way that fits with their existing thinking and preconceptions. The domain of science, where theories should advance based on both falsifying and supporting evidence, has not been immune to bias, which is often associated with people processing hypotheses in ways that end up confirming them (Oswald & Grosjean, 2004). Similarly, a consumer who likes a particular brand and researches a new purchase may be motivated to seek out customer reviews on the internet that favor that brand. Confirmation bias has also been related to unmotivated processes, including primacy effects and anchoring, evident in a reliance on information that is encountered early in a process (Nickerson, 1998).Updated Jan 9, 2020, 4:04 PM


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 16:04:00 UTC

  • Jan 9, 2020, 3:56 PM

    https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=548305105766384&id=100017606988153Updated Jan 9, 2020, 3:56 PM


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 15:56:00 UTC

  • FYI Realism > Naturalism > Prediction > Operationalism > Empiricism > Acquisitio

    FYI

    Realism > Naturalism > Prediction > Operationalism > Empiricism > Acquisition > Rational Choice > Demonstrated Preference > Reciprocity > Power Distribution of Law > Pareto Distribution of Assets > Nash Distribution of Rewards:

    If it doesn’t pass, it’s false.Updated Jan 9, 2020, 3:55 PM


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 15:55:00 UTC

  • Updated Jan 9, 2020, 3:55 PM

    Updated Jan 9, 2020, 3:55 PM


    Source date (UTC): 2020-01-09 15:55:00 UTC