Form: Critique

  • Behind Paul Krugman’s Daily Straw Men

    Paul, 1) THE ART OF CREATING AND ATTACKING STRAW MEN You have mastered the strategy of creating then attacking straw men, and in doing so crafting the typical progressive implication that emotions, stupidity and irrationality drive political behaviors. (See Paul Jonson’s Intellectuals, Thomas Sowell’s Intellectuals and Society, and Richard Posner’s Public Intellectuals. All of which discuss this tactic.) Among economists you have singular mastery of this rhetorical device.) 2) CONVENIENTLY IGNORING NON-MONETARY COSTS In your straw men, you consistently fail to acknowledge that the superior economic productivity of certain countries requires that their citizens pay substantial non-monetary costs. These non monetary costs which we refer to as: a) TRUST (bearing risk in order to contribute to the commons), b) CONFORMITY (abstinence from privatization of payments on the common property of manners, ethics and moral norms) and; c) PERSONAL DISCIPLINE (abstinence from involuntary transfers, and exchange of temporal satisfactions for inter-temporal capital accumulation), all of which are a paid in opportunity costs. These non monetary costs are far higher costs than monetary costs. That is why they are so scarce on this planet. Few civilizations have managed to break the familial and tribal preference, and only Christendom has both forbidden cousin marriage, and given women property rights – both of which are needed to accomplish the unintuitive but necessary environment for a high trust society. So, as an economist, either you fail to grasp the basic concept of opportunity cost to the individual, or you falsely apply an infinite discount to the very high cost in opportunities, of those norms, all of which prevent privatization of the commons of norms, that allow us to create the high trust society, that in turn makes the west more productive than ANY other culture. This ignorance a product the most common progressive error: the false consensus bias rampant among progressives, and the denial of the existence and necessity of moral capital: habitual behaviors of self-denial. 3) a) Humans object to involuntary transfers. They object to involuntary transfers by violence, to theft, to fraud, and to ‘Cheating’. e) All human beings dramatically reject ‘cheaters’ (people who privatize the commons, or who engage in theft, fraud and violence) much more vehemently than they pursue their own welfare. Humans will pay very high costs to prevent ‘cheating’ (involuntary transfers), f) And they will pay that high cost whether the cheating is performed against an individual, a group of numerically allocated shareholders, from the unallocated physical commons, or from the un-allocatable (non numeric) commons of moral capital: manners, ethics, morals and norms. b) DIFFERENT CONCEPTS OF PROPERTY, MORALITY, AND REPRODUCTIVES STRATEGY BETWEEN LEFT AND RIGHT d) All human societies allocate individual and communal property differently, and the left and right in each society place very different values on moral and ethical norms that require restraint from privatization of the commons. (That commons which Jonathan Haidt among others calls Moral Capital). c) All human societies stack their preferences for decision making differently – the north of Europe is biased for the commons, and the south of Europe is biased for the family, (as demonstrated by Edward Banfied). 5) The straw man you create, is either an error or a deception or both. I cannot judge, despite following you for years. But that straw man ignores the cost and consequences of behavioral capital. It ignores the basic nature of man. It ignores: a) the NECESSITY of that basic nature of man, in order for an economy to function using prices and incentives, and b) the necessity of that nature of man for an efficient economy to function through the existence of property, and the existence of trust, and the absence of corruption (privatization of the commons and non-value added toll-collecting). Behavior matters, as Sowell illustrates by the example of the conquest of France by Germany in six weeks, despite the vast superiority of French forces and equipment. Behavior matters, as the difference the north and south of europe demonstrates. An economy consists of institutions both formal and informal. And to base one’s arguments entirely upon formal institutions, and a so called efficiency while ignoring the vast costs in opportunity costs, discipline and risk absorption of creating the informal institutions. 6) Human beings are redistributive when the very high costs of norms are paid equally. Then the results of adherence to those norms (money) can be distributed. But that is because money is of little value and cost compared to the deprivations paid to establish those norms. This is the problem of ‘getting to Denmark’. The world cannot ‘get to Denmark’ without breaking up into Denmarks, and creating the norms of Denmark. Human willingness for redistribution is inversely proportional to ‘cheating’. And cheating depends upon a homogeneity of norms, since diversity of norms is by definition theft of forgone opportunity costs from one group by another. It is privatization of someone else’s common. Small homogenous societies are egalitarian. Large diverse societies are not. This is very simple economics of human behavioral opportunity costs. 7) It is far easier to construct such straw men as you do, than to take on the heady labor of analytically deconstructing and refuting such straw men. If it were not, you would be more readily refuted. And, economically speaking, since it is cheaper to produce and distribute your intellectual product constructed of straw, than it is to produce and distribute the refutation of that product made of logical bricks. Just as the children’s story of the Three Little Pigs demonstrates with utter clarity. One can build many straw men cheaply. So, it is obvious why those of us capable of refuting them with logical bricks devote our time elsewhere and hope the market eventually accomplishes through awareness what we cannot afford to accomplish through costly daily deliberate action. So, That is economics. Macro economics as you advocate it, is simply monetary manipulation for short term gain. Nothing more. It is an abstraction useful for aggregates that represent statistical categories that assume the underlying distribution of humans is relatively equal without acknowledging the ongoing costs of maintaining that statistical distribution of categories. You are discounting what you consider externalities, in order to make your model fit your conclusion. That is what you are doing. And that is all that you are doing. 8) I understand that your sentiments are those of a mystical collectivist in the marxian and freudian “Era Of Superstition” as Hayek termed your philosophy. I understand why you ignore larger environmental causes of economic circumstances like the uniqueness of the American position post-war. And I understand why you limit your empirical analysis to postwar data sets in order to avoid refutation of your ideology – the refutation of which in turn poses a problem for your sentiments. But you must at some point if you are honest, confront both your avoidance of empirical evidence, and the historical record. The historical record which demonstrates that no body of people have held land, and therefore been able to create a monopoly of the institutions we call government and norms over that body of land, while holding the sentiments that you naturally ‘feel’ — and fell prior to cognition, and contrary to evidence. The depth of this criticism is damning to your ideology. You must prove that such a thing is possible without resorting to dictatorship. (as Sowell has argued in Knowledge and Decisions, and Hayek has argued in The Constitution Of LIberty. Unfortunately these men lacked the data that Jonathan Haidt now possesses, and Jonathan Haidt lacks the knowledge of microeconomics, and Propertarian reasoning that would tie micro economics and politics to our genetic behaviors and moral preferences. Thankfully we now have that knowledge. Which is what I do) Your selective empirical positivism is supportive of your straw men. That is all. And you sell your straw to willing customers, who simply want to use it to gain political power, in order to extract privileges, and nothing more. 9) EUROPE MISTAKENLY BELIEVES FEDERATION BY IMITATING THE UNITED STATES, WHEN IT’S THE UNITED STATES THAT SHOULD BREAK INTO SMALLER STATES Given the expanding polarity of the United States due to our First-Past-The-Post electoral system, and the introduction of women into the labor and voting pools, and the consequential dissolution of the nuclear family, and its emerging consequences, it is quite evident that not only do we, and the world, not need a united Europe, but that we we have likely proven the argument of the economic historians, and political philosophers, that small states with their own currencies are not only more pacifist, but more possibly democratic and redistributive, and that by consequence, the United States should desire to dissolve into Joel Garreau’s Nine Nations Of North America. After all, while NY money may end up in Alabama, it is not the people in Alabama who vote for higher taxes and greater regulation. And the people of the south, southwest and center despise the declining rust belt, and the NY/DC one-size-fits-all monetary, cultural, and war machine. -Curt Doolittle (NOTE: Written in response to: “The Radicalizing Effect Of The Euro Disaster” but addressing Krugman’s argumentative structure more directly.) I’ve decided to spend a little time constructing an argument to undermine Paul Krugman’s straw men. Below is the first draft, written in response to the above mentioned post. Over the next year I’ll keep using it as a mantra, distill it a bit, and try to popularize it among libertarians and conservatives. I really do not feel Krugman is challenged adequately on his reasoning. It’s almost always on his motives, or his style. But both his economic arguments and his political arguments are open to empirical and rational refutation respectively.

  • ECONOMICS OF A POLITY: AN ANALYTICAL DECONSTRUCTION OF PAUL KRUGMAN’S IDEOLOGICA

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/the-radicalizing-effect-of-euro-disaster/THE ECONOMICS OF A POLITY:

    AN ANALYTICAL DECONSTRUCTION OF PAUL KRUGMAN’S IDEOLOGICAL STRAW MEN.

    In response to: “The Radicalizing Effect Of The Euro Disaster” http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/the-radicalizing-effect-of-euro-disaster/

    This is a straw man on the following counts:

    a) Any period of change must produce leadership along multiple axis, in order to ensure all available solutions have been discovered, and that the population rallies behind leadership it is willing to support.

    b) Nationalism is not equated to radicalism, since certain norms are necessary for trust and redistribution.

    c) There is little evidence that a United Europe (or a United States) is necessarily a good thing. In fact, the evidence would suggest the opposite. Large states can more effectively use finance to create debt and wage war to protect their interests. (or stated differently, the larger the state, the more possibly offensive is the government to other states.) Further, smaller states are more homogenous and therefore more redistributive, with less political conflict. Smaller is better.

    But I’ve decided to spend a little time constructing an argument to undermine Paul Krugman’s straw men. Below is the first draft, written in response to the above mentioned post. Over the next year I’ll keep using it as a mantra, distill it a bit, and try to popularize it among libertarians and conservatives. I really do not feel Krugman is challenged adequately on his reasoning. It’s almost always on his motives, or his style. But both his economic arguments and his political arguments are open to empirical and rational refutation respectively.

    ===

    Paul,

    I’ve tried to reduce my criticism of your posts this year to spend time on my own work, but this post troubles me too much to pass up.

    1) You have mastered the strategy of creating then attacking straw men, and in doing so crafting the typical progressive implication that emotions, stupidity and irrationality drive political behaviors. (See Paul Jonson’s Intellectuals, Thomas Sowell’s Intellectuals and Society, and Richard Posner’s Public Intellectuals. All of which discuss this tactic – although among economists you have singular contemporary mastery of this rhetorical device.)

    2) In your straw men, you fail to acknowledge that the superior economic productivity of certain countries requires that their citizens pay non-monetary costs – which we refer to as TRUST (bearing risk in order to contribute to the commons), CONFORMITY (abstinence from privatization of payments on the common property of manners, ethics and moral norms) and PERSONAL DISCIPLINE (abstinence from involuntary transfers, and exchange of temporal satisfactions for inter-temporal capital accumulation), all of which are a paid in opportunity costs. These are far higher costs than capital costs. That is why they are so scarce on this planet. Few civilizations have managed to break the familial and tribal preference, and only Christendom has both forbidden cousin marriage, and given women property rights – both of which are needed to accomplish the unintuitive.

    So, as an economist, either you fail to grasp the basic concept of opportunity cost to the individual, or you falsely (as did Rothbard, thus discounting his theory as much as we discount the labor theory of value) apply an infinite discount to the very high cost in opportunities, of those norms, all of which prevent privatization of the commons of norms, that create the high trust society, that in turn makes the west more productive than ANY other culture.

    3) While all human societies stack their preferences for differently – the north of europe for the commons, and the south of europe (as demonstrated by Edward Banfied) for the family, and all human societies allocate individual and communal property differently, and the left and right in each society place very different values on moral and ethical norms that require restraint from privatization of the commons (which Jonathan Haidt among others calls Moral Capital), all human beings dramatically reject ‘cheaters’ (people who privatize the commons, or who engage in theft, fraud and violence) much more vehemently than they pursue their own welfare. Humans will pay very high costs to prevent ‘cheating’ (involuntary transfers), whether that cheating is from the individual, a group of numerically allocated shareholders, or from the unallocated commons, or from the un-allocatable commons of moral capital: manners, ethics, morals and norms.

    4) The straw man you create, is either an error or a deception or both. I cannot judge, despite following you for years. But that straw man ignores the cost and consequences of behavioral capital. It ignores the basic nature of man. It ignores the NECESSITY of that basic nature of man, in order for an economy to function using prices and incentives, and for an efficient economy to function through the existence of property, and the existence of trust, and the absence of corruption (privatization of the commons and non-value added toll-collecting).

    Behavior matters, as Sowell illustrates by the example of the conquest of France by Germany in six weeks, despite the vast superiority of French forces and equipment. Behavior matters, as the difference the north and south of europe demonstrates. An economy consists of institutions both formal and informal. And to base one’s arguments entirely upon formal institutions, and a so called efficiency while ignoring the vast costs in opportunity costs, discipline and risk absorption of creating the informal institutions.

    5) Human beings are redistributive when the very high costs of norms are paid equally. Then the results of adherence to those norms (money) can be distributed. But that is because money is of little value and cost compared to the deprivations paid to establish those norms. This is the problem of ‘getting to Denmark’. The world cannot ‘get to Denmark’ without breaking up into Denmarks, and creating the norms of Denmark. Human willingness for redistribution is inversely proportional to ‘cheating’. And cheating depends upon a homogeneity of norms, since diversity of norms is by definition theft of forgone opportunity costs from one group by another. It is privatization of someone else’s common. Small homogenous societies are egalitarian. Large diverse societies are not. This is very simple economics of human behavioral opportunity costs.

    6) It is far easier to construct such straw men as you do, than to take on the heady labor of analytically deconstructing and refuting such straw men. If it were not, you would be more readily refuted. And, economically speaking, since it is cheaper to produce and distribute your intellectual product constructed of straw, than it is to produce and distribute the refutation of that product made of logical bricks. Just as the children’s story of the Three Little Pigs demonstrates with utter clarity. One can build many straw men cheaply. So, it is obvious why those of us capable of refuting them with logical bricks devote our time elsewhere and hope the market eventually accomplishes through awareness what we cannot afford to accomplish through costly daily deliberate action.

    So, That is economics. Macro economics as you advocate it, is simply monetary manipulation for short term gain. Nothing more. It is an abstraction useful for aggregates that represent statistical categories that assume the underlying distribution of humans is relatively equal without acknowledging the ongoing costs of maintaining that statistical distribution of categories. You are discounting what you consider externalities, in order to make your model fit your conclusion. That is what you are doing. And that is all that you are doing.

    7) I understand that your sentiments are those of a mystical collectivist in the marxian and freudian “Era Of Superstition” as Hayek termed your philosophy. I understand why you ignore larger environmental causes of economic circumstances like the uniqueness of the american position post war. And I understand why you limit your empirical analysis to postwar data sets in order to avoid refutation of your ideology – the refutation of which in turn poses a problem for your sentiments. But you must at some point if you are honest, confront both your avoidance of empirical evidence, and the historical record. The historical record which demonstrates that no body of people have held land, and therefore been able to create a monopoly of the institutions we call government and norms over that body of land, while holding the sentiments that you naturally ‘feel’ — and fell prior to cognition, and contrary to evidence.

    The depth of this criticism is damning to your ideology. You must prove that such a thing is possible without resorting to dictatorship.

    (as Sowell has argued in Knowledge and Decisions, and Hayek has argued in The Constitution Of LIberty. Unfortunately these men lacked the data that Jonathan Haidt now possesses, and Jonathan Haidt lacks the knowledge of microeconomics, and Propertarian reasoning that would tie micro economics and politics to our genetic behaviors and moral preferences. Thankfully we now have that knowledge. Which is what I do)

    Your selective empirical positivism is supportive of your straw men. That is all. And you sell your straw to willing customers, who simply want to use it to gain political power, in order to extract privileges, and nothing more.

    8) Given the expanding polarity of the United States due to our First Past The Post electoral system, and the introduction of women into the labor and voting pools, and the consequential dissolution of the nuclear family, and its emerging consequences, it is quite evident that not only do we, and the world, not need a united Europe, but that we we have likely proven the argument of the economic historians, and political philosophers, that small states with their own currencies are not only more pacifist, but more possibly democratic and redistributive, and that by consequence, the United States should desire to dissolve into Joel Garreau’s Nine Nations Of North America.

    After all, while NY money may end up in Alabama, it is not the people in Alabama who vote for higher taxes and greater regulation. And the people of the south, southwest and center despise the declining rust belt, and the NY/DC one-size-fits-all monetary, cultural, and war machine.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-07-25 16:27:00 UTC

  • WATCH: NAME CALLING BY SELECTIVELY IGNORING FACTS (Krugman has written a manifes

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/a-manifesto-for-economic-sense/KRUGMAN WATCH: NAME CALLING BY SELECTIVELY IGNORING FACTS

    (Krugman has written a manifesto – a petition – blaming the private sector and demanding government spending, and repeating his claim that we the public don’t understand.)

    As laudable as the effort is, it’s still a half-truth: human beings object to involuntary transfers and ‘cheating’ no matter who is doing it, and which direction it’s going.

    People are not confused. They do not fail to understand. They just place higher priority on preventing moral hazards, involuntary transfers, and all forms of cheating than they do on any upside. People will gladly pay to deny opportunity to, or to punish cheaters. THey are demonstrating that they will pay. The rhetoric is just chaff.

    People do not trust their governments. Heterogeneous populations never do. They do not want to fund expansion of the government or taxes. Every politician I talk to says the same thing: the people are done with taxes. But they are exasperated by their government as well.

    The problem is not that people are confused. The problem is that the polarized political system is supported by equally polarized economists.

    The left economists will not forge a compromise with the middle and right economists and propose a solution that consists of fiscal, monetary, trade, strategic and human capital. The right wants one thing: to end the department of education, and federal control of schools. That will happen anyway over the next decade. Not to trade it right now is foolish. With that one trade they would release all resistance to fiscal policy.

    We have no statesmen. Only politicians and ideologues.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-06-28 08:52:00 UTC

  • 2000 Years Of Economic History In A Chart? What Would That Chart Tell Us?

    I don’t know what we’re supposed to learn from this chart from The Atlantic, but as others have already stated with passion, it’s pretty bad information design. And even without that criticism, almost every conclusion that one would draw from it certainly appears to be simply meaningless or false – at least without some sort of prevarication.

    It reminds me of the biggest statistical sin in current economics: using ‘families’ rather than individuals. If someone uses that measure, then everything that follows is false. Families have changed too much. More so than the economy itself. The economy is noise by comparison. Likewise, for such gross categorization as this chart seeks to make use of, economic activity is meaningless without the sizes of the geography and the population. Boundaries are meaningless unless what happens within them is substantially different per person per square mile/km. Perhaps even, limited to per person per acre of arable land. Otherwise all the chart tells you is that big arbitrary geographic areas produce more income than small arbitrary geographic areas. Which tells us precisely nothing that isn’t absurdly obvious. WHAT SHOULD A CHART OF ECONOMIC HISTORY SHOW US? What any such chart would allow us to draw the conclusion that:

      Economic history is not complicated. People need:

        They need institutional technologies which do not so much require the state as require the state not abuse:

          And, they need those institutions that *are* complicated: social aspects we too often ignore, and which appear to require intervention on the part of the state:

            A chart that is useful, will be the chart that illustrates that the only value of a state is in creating these institutions (a) thru (h).

          • 2000 Years Of Economic History In A Chart? What Would That Chart Tell Us?

            I don’t know what we’re supposed to learn from this chart from The Atlantic, but as others have already stated with passion, it’s pretty bad information design. And even without that criticism, almost every conclusion that one would draw from it certainly appears to be simply meaningless or false – at least without some sort of prevarication.

            It reminds me of the biggest statistical sin in current economics: using ‘families’ rather than individuals. If someone uses that measure, then everything that follows is false. Families have changed too much. More so than the economy itself. The economy is noise by comparison. Likewise, for such gross categorization as this chart seeks to make use of, economic activity is meaningless without the sizes of the geography and the population. Boundaries are meaningless unless what happens within them is substantially different per person per square mile/km. Perhaps even, limited to per person per acre of arable land. Otherwise all the chart tells you is that big arbitrary geographic areas produce more income than small arbitrary geographic areas. Which tells us precisely nothing that isn’t absurdly obvious. WHAT SHOULD A CHART OF ECONOMIC HISTORY SHOW US? What any such chart would allow us to draw the conclusion that:

              Economic history is not complicated. People need:

                They need institutional technologies which do not so much require the state as require the state not abuse:

                  And, they need those institutions that *are* complicated: social aspects we too often ignore, and which appear to require intervention on the part of the state:

                    A chart that is useful, will be the chart that illustrates that the only value of a state is in creating these institutions (a) thru (h).

                  • FROM TUTOR2U? (Seriously?) Ok, you know, what I write about is controversial. I

                    http://tutor2u.net/BANNED FROM TUTOR2U? (Seriously?)

                    Ok, you know, what I write about is controversial. I defend the conservative and libertarian political and economic programs. (Although I also defend redistribution under certain circumstances.) I explain conservative theory using libertarian reasoning. And I think I’m as good or better at it than anyone else out there. So, to check myself, I just went through all of my comments on Disqus and they’re pretty tame. I changed my debate strategy this winter so that it’s less antagonistic and more explicative. But whatever they banned me for must have been recent.

                    SO FAR WHO HAS BANNED ME?

                    1) Mark Thoma’s Left Wing link aggregator The Economist’s View (top leftist site on the web after Krugman) And I deserved it probably, for stooping to their level now and then. I’m only human.

                    2) Tutor2u’s economic site (no idea what I said there that was controversial). I mean it’s a progressive site.

                    And that’s it.

                    Other Notices:

                    3) TED didn’t ban me but deleted a comment I made on why I didn’t think it’s statistically likely that more women will become CEOs of major companies, or senior managers (IQ distributions favor men at the extremes.)

                    4) I got a threatening notice from Arnold Kling’s editor because I was posting my responses to him on my web site, maybe a year and a half ago, but not for the content itself. I just explained that I was documenting my comments and they were fine with it.

                    So, I don’t get banned often. I though Paul Krugman would have done so by now, but I’m tame next to some people there. Or one of the other leftist economists that I argue with now and then. I’m pretty prolific. At the rate I produce you’d think that if I was really awful that I’d get banned all the time.

                    Here is the post. It’s in response to the question of which exit from the Euro will cause the least harm.

                    ===

                    “I don’t know why it isn’t pretty obvious that the optimum answer is the split north and south, with the north doing the planning, and bearing the cost, of restoring the Mark.

                    The US mountain, midwest and south have the same problem with the northeast and west. A lot of political conflict that could be solved by markets if they weren’t under the same federal government and currency.

                    I wouldn’t wish our level of political polarization on europe. It certainly seems like that’s what they’re asking for. And, at least in political theory, we’re pretty certain that big is bad and small is good. We should be thinking about breaking up the states. Europe shouldn’t be trying to federate like we do. It’s a recipe for conflict and paralyzation.”

                    ===


                    Source date (UTC): 2012-06-16 11:19:00 UTC

                  • The Village Voice Calls Me A Conservative (Right) And A Racist (Wrong).

                    I supposed I should know better, but the Village voice is attacking me, and every other ‘right wing blogger’ for defending John Derbyshire.

                    Curt Doolittle  … allowed as how “racism is just plain stupidity.” Nonetheless he explained that “African Americans FACTUALLY demonstrate African American distributions of IQ are FACTUALLY almost a full standard deviation lower than that of their white counterparts,” and that “whites used to be racist but the wars ended their comfort with self confidence. Blacks are racist at the bottom.”

                    Doolittle also noted that black people are disproportionately represented in crime statistics. He did not consider their disproportionate representation in poverty statistics to be connected — that sort of thinking, we suppose, would conflict with the Austrian Libertarian tradition — but suggested that “aberrant behavior among minorities” in the U.S. is “tolerated under the principle of diversity and freedom of self expression.”  — The Village Voice

                    To which I replied:

                    Thank you for quoting me on this issue.  I was pretty reluctant to write about it.  It strikes me as odd that if I write something on fashion or gender relations, or racism, that it gets a lot of attention — my most popular article was when I stated that tattoos had gone out of style in the middle class.  But if I write something meaningful about political theory you can hear crickets.  So, I guess this kind of thing goes with the territory.

                    But I have a few nits with your quote:

                    1) Racism is just plain stupid. One cannot judge an individual by the properties of his class. Although one can judge a class by the properties of its individuals.

                    2) Denying that we in the states have a racial issue is not stupid. It’s obvious, or we wouldn’t be having this discussion. I’lll avoid the detail of why we have a greater problem with race than our English and Canadian counterparts, but the fact that we do, is indicative of the problem. They can enforce behavioral norms, and our society has forbidden such pressure to conformity as the French impose.

                    3) Denying that poverty is a symptom is not stupid either. You imply that I do not seem to appreciate this issue.  Acknowledging that the reason for poverty is not racism but IQ is not stupid either. It’s just what it is.  Acknowledging that the distribution of IQ varies among groups isn’t stupid either.

                    5) I’m not advocating racism – that is an emotional construct. I”m saying that the suite of policy solutions that seek to solve the problem through educational commingling, and treating racial groups as homogenous in ability is simply HARMFUL to those at the bottom,  40% of whom are black. Even the genders are not homogenous. If we look at the data we should not start boys in school for a year after we start girls, and perhaps two years. That’s just one aspect of the Finnish model.  Instead, those troubled demographics need special attention. I’m appealing for special attention — ie: schools designed to teach something other than middle class whites and asians.  I can forgive you for not knowing my broader political position, and leaping to the conclusion you did. I’m just not sure I want to let the error go unanswered. And a look at the complexion of my family, which is a rainbow, should be enough to convince anyone of my personal disposition.

                    6) Derbyshire was fired for speaking the truth in order to draw attention to the problem.  I”m not sure I think his argument is particularly useful. I am sure I don’t agree with his reasons or his solutions. But he was speaking the truth. If you are one of the deniers that thinks human IQ distributions are environmental rather than genetic, then you can get together with climate deniers and have a celebration.  But the matter is settled in the data. It’s settled in the profession.  And the dirty secret of the Human Genome project: we now know why. Social classes are genetically determined too. And capitalism’s fast meritocratic rotation makes these differences rapidly visible.

                    So lets move beyond name calling and solve this problem.  We can solve it by throwing welfare money at it, or do what we’re doing and continue to see little progress, or we can understand that a very different school system is needed with far more support for a demographic that needs special care in order to fit successfully into society.  Because what we’re doing isn’t working.

                    The race and class warfare prevents us from “Getting To Denmark” and building an egalitarian society. I don’t believe that society can be created with a 300M+ population like it can in a 5M population if  we have to rely on a government where consensus of belief is needed and where  the winner takes all.  And reorganizing our political institutions to accomodate for our impossibly complex diversity of opinion, desire, visions AND abilities, is what I work on full time.

                    I don’t expect thanks for it. On the other hand, I have many faults, but I don’t think the one you’re attributing to me is one of them.  🙂

                    Thanks

                    Curt Doolittle

                  • The Black Swan Simplified? It’s Conservatism In A Nutshell Silly.

                    Mark Crovelli writes on Mises.org Brazil, that the central message of the Black Swan is “PROBABILITY IS SUBJECTIVE AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY”. Then on his Facebook page asks for thoughts. Well, it is always dangerous to ask for opinion after you publish something rather than before. 🙂 The central message of The Black Swan is that we should not fool ourselves into thinking our models are predictive, because we cannot forecast severe events, and if we use forecasts to create policy that does not tolerate severe events, then we will of necessity create fragility.

                    [callout]The Black Swan is a warning about fragility. It is a restatement of conservatism’s core tenet: a warning against innate human hubris — in practical terms, with modern examples. [/callout]

                    And he doesn’t just mean economic corrections. He means, depressions, civil war, and poliitcal dissolution or conquest. His narrative starts with the belief among the diverse Levantine peoples that they were ‘special’. That the rest of the world was foolish. That they had solved the problem of diversity. And they learned that they were wrong. Their society was conquered and died because of it. And now, instead of being a exception in that world, it is just another poor part of it. It’s this kind of severity he’s warning us about in the black swan. He’s just using his experience with the financial markets to illustrate in clear terms how a financialized society and a financialized government, can produce policy that results in fragility. The black swan is a warning about fragility. It is a restatement of conservatism’s core tenet: a warning against innate human hubris — in practical terms, with modern examples. So, while you might believe you’ve simplified his statements, I think that you have laundered, by the use of aggregates, what is valuable in them — just as we Austrians argue that Keynesian aggregates eliminate all meaningful information from economic data, and thereby ignore the inter-temporal settlement that is a mandatory component of the process of production, and the human calculation and incentives that follow. This is not a mistake our side of the fence is supposed to make. 🙂 Anyway, cheers for taking on a hard subject. 🙂

                  • Teasing Karl Smith: The Futility Of Teaching Pigs To Sing

                    Just because Karl Smith is the best progressive economics blogger, and a decent and honest man, doesn’t mean he isn’t a poster child for the errors in progressive thought. It’s precisely WHY hes the best poster child for progressive thought: because he’s a decent and honest and intelligent man, yet he STILL simply bathes himself in the error of progressive sentiments, as if its a serotonin soaking-tub for his neurons. In response to yet another of the Krugman/Smith/Thoma/DeLong fits of exasperation over the systemic failure of federalism, I try to encourage Karl to become enlightened — which I realize is as futile as his fantasy that people will become out-group egalitarians. But I still have hope. 🙂

                    Karl, 1) Conservatives have a more accurate view of human nature. They have a more complex view of human nature. That view results in a more skeptical view of human nature. All ‘liberal’ progress has been the result of adding women to the voting pool, the decline in male participation in all facets of society due to legislation, immigration, and migration, and the south’s re-embracing of the republican party causing two-party polarity. It has not been due to a change in preference. And the behavior of new generations is cyclical, not directional.  No one is every convinced of anything.  We fuss and fume to maintain our constituencies and the undecided moderates determine all the outcomes. We must govern with the humans that we have, not the humans we wish we had.I know you find it antithetical, but the conservative case is playing out. This is why conservatism is anti-ideological: all ideologies are progressive. 2) Conservative forecasts are playing out, not because they win arguments but because their understanding of human nature is true:

                    • a) Differences in preferences are genetically determined. Differences in strategy have costs to individuals. Individuals resent those that do not pay such costs. Evolution has guaranteed this resentment is necessary and unavoidable. Without it cooperation is not possible, because cheating is more advantageous in the short run.
                    • b) Group differences in signaling are biological and inescapable. Differences in signal costs mean groups biologically aggregate, and vote in support of aggregate signals. The signaling economy is of higher value to individuals in groups than is the monetary economy. (This is one reason why Islam is poor and Christendom is wealthy, and why christianity is an outlier: the church — the federal government — managed to break familial and tribal bonds. islam could not create a high trust society, and without it, an adaptable bureaucracy, or modern commercial capitalism.)
                    • c) There is a point of minimum homogeneity, beyond which people will cease pursuing redistributive ends. The only countries that can avoid those issues are ‘privileged’ countries like canada and the north of europe, which are small, homogenous, and surrounded by a lack of competitive pressures. The states can never get there.

                    3) You can have the world you want in a homogenous nation state. But you cannot have it outside of “Denmark”. Participatory government is for small states. In those states the size also limites the distortive ability of the state, so that civilization-ending, or revolution inducing bubbles are more quickly visible. Your counter argument, which you’ve stated here many times, is that authoritarian governments can achieve these ends. And that is true. And I know that’s what you prefer. But they can also achieve many other ends. And the people in them drop adherence to the high trust society as a way of creating a black market, and a means of rebellion against their ability to enact those ends. You will either have an unequal society because of market meritocracy, or an unequal society because of rebellion against state manipulation of societies’ tendency toward meritocracy. That is, unless you produce societies of people who are homogenous equals in practice. Whether by Harrison-Bergeron dysgenics, or natural and or technical eugenics. Now that’s a comforting thought. :/ You are a wonderful human being. But trying to teach a pig to sing wastes your time and annoys the pig. (I know, I know, it doesn’t stop me either.) Perhaps you were too selective in your reading of Smith, without spending equal time on his Moral Sentiments? 🙂 Or its modern equivalent by Jonathan Haidt? Or its earlier equivalents in Weber, Pareto and Machiavelli? Or Michel’s iron law of oligarchy? I know. I know. I know… The austrians have been silly in their belief in the rational individual. But they’re no sillier than the Keynesian belief in the egalitarian individual. We are attracted to the methods that support our cognitive biases. Cheers

                  • Criticizing Rothbard, Or Criticizing The Abuse Of Rothbard?

                    I criticize Rothbard all the time, but always for the same single reason: he did not solve the problem of formal institutions and effectively, he tried to advocate freedom be achieved through informal institutions alone — effectively via a religion. That’s what Confucius did as well. He could not invent politics so he directed the entire civilization to operate as a hierarchical family. But religions are means of rebelling against formal institutions largely by the lower classes, and those rebellions are limited to use by the lower classes. For the middle and upper classes to rebel, they need something to advocate that assists them in cooperation through formal institutions, even if those formal institutions are very limited in scope. And in our terms, limited in scope to the resolution of conflicts. Hoppe solved that problem. He solved the problem of formal institutions. That’s his genius. Hoppe’s weakness is that his English words are structured in turgid German thought, and his writing is not as accessible or organized as are Rothbard’s and Mises’ – nor structured as a social appeal as is Hayek’s work. But Hoppe has found the answer to government that we have been looking for — for two and a half millennia: how to create those cooperative instituions, without at the same time creating bureaucracy. Or, how to create instituions within the market, and subject to the market rather than insulated from it. When we try to advocate Hoppe’s work, we tend to advocate his line of reasoning, rather than the utility of his ideas. I think we do that because we’re paying too much attention to Rothbard’s approach to libertarianism as an informal institution — which again, I’m arguing is counter-factual: the majority do not want freedom, but increased ability to consume. So, both of these argumentative strategies are difficult, because those we wish to convert find fist, that the arguments themselves are ant-social, rather than just thought experiments to help us understand the difference between truth and norm. And second that the arguments are too complex and unnecessary given that the Hoppeian social order is actually quite simple. And any discussion of that social order serves to undermine the presumption behind government: that bureaucracy is a necessary component of achieving social order.

                    Curt, … I don’t follow you. what is the problem of “formal institutions,” and how did Rothbard “fail” to solve it, and why is this … something to criticize him about? No one can do evertyhing. What exactly is the probem of “formal instituitons” and what IS the “solution”, in your view? And what has this to do with libertarianism anyway? — SK

                    1) Three categories of institutions: a)Technologies: history, numbers, arithmetic, accounting, objective truth, contracts, interest. b) Formal institutions: laws, courts, banking, armies, formal organizations for capital concentration. c) Informal institutions: manners, ethics, morals, norms, traditions, narratives, myths, rituals, public rituals, and religions. 2) Criticize is a bad word I guess, you’re right. a) I think I dont really comprehend how someone can argue for a normative system that is against the expressed political desires of the many, even if only for status reasons, despite the fact that it would serve their economic interests, if not their status seeking interests — or their will to power. So I tend to view rothbard and mises, as did Hayek, as artificially narrowing the scope of the problem for cultural reasons — because of their sentiments. b) The entire argument from Crusoe on down is a useful thought experiment, but one can’t draw conclusions from it without also trying the opposite thought experiment: an island populated with men in which one desires property rights. THe island after all, creates property by definition if one man is on it.. So, the many-man experiment is more insightful. And the Crusoe argument becomes subject to the reductio fallacy. That’s the thought experiment that’s equally as informative. And from that one comparison of thought experiments, we would have to answer the problem of institutions. And I’m pretty sure we run up against the nasty problem of redistribution (or better said: dividends) if we explore that experiment as well. So you’re entirely right. It isn’t up to one man to solve anything. It is however a material problem, if we have created an ideology, rather than a solution. Ideologies are useful for obtaining the power to establish a form of government, even if that form is anarchic. But institutional solutions are necessary: both technical, formal and informal. So I’m criticizing perhaps the abuse of rothbard. He succeeds in creating the INFORMAL institutions. And hoppe the FORMAL institutions. Rothbard created the simple rules that are necessary for infinite application. He just didn’t solve the rest of it. So I’m not so much criticizing him, as much as criticizing a reliance upon the rothbardian rather than hoppeian solution set. 3) What does this have to do with libertarianism? I see libertarian (commercialism), conservative (manorialism), and progressive (socialism) sentiments as cognitive biases that are largely a reflection of mating strategies. (Too deep for this post). And within libertarian sentiments, ‘libertarianism’ is a rothbardian invention. Libertarianism is a rigid concept, as you’ve stated many times. Libertarian sentiments are much wider. And many political solutions can be classified as libertarian in the sense that they serve the sentiment if not adhere to the hard definitions of rothbardian ethics. (— Eds: added text follows –) Further, as I stated in the first posting, hoppe solved the problem of institutions without bureaucracy. (From a FB conversation)