Jan 26, 2020, 7:53 AM This list appears to omit what is possibly the most important criteria: “Fraction of those planets with a molten iron core, and a moon large enough to keep it molten, so that an electromagnetic shield can protect the atmosphere.” Rate of star formation, R” = 1 solar masses Fraction of stars with planets, fp = 1 Number of habitable planets per star, ne = 4 Fraction of those planets that develop life, fl = 0.25 Fraction of the above that develop intelligent life, fi = 1 Fraction of planets with intelligent life that send signals into space, to = 1 Lifetime of a civilisation that sends signals into space, L = 100
Category: Science, Physics, and Philosophy of Science
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Chance of Finding a Habitable Planet
Jan 26, 2020, 7:53 AM This list appears to omit what is possibly the most important criteria: “Fraction of those planets with a molten iron core, and a moon large enough to keep it molten, so that an electromagnetic shield can protect the atmosphere.” Rate of star formation, R” = 1 solar masses Fraction of stars with planets, fp = 1 Number of habitable planets per star, ne = 4 Fraction of those planets that develop life, fl = 0.25 Fraction of the above that develop intelligent life, fi = 1 Fraction of planets with intelligent life that send signals into space, to = 1 Lifetime of a civilisation that sends signals into space, L = 100
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What Does Curt Use for Strategic and Military Research?
What Does Curt Use for Strategic and Military Research? https://propertarianism.com/2020/05/25/what-does-curt-use-for-strategic-and-military-research/
Source date (UTC): 2020-05-25 17:05:49 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1264965908163944450
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What Does Curt Use for Strategic and Military Research?
Jan 29, 2020, 3:10 PM (go where everyone goes) Most of what I get is from google alerts on keyword searches. Otherwise I only follow data driven organizations: RAND, SSI (Army War College), CSIS, CNSAS, CIA. (The rest are – honestly – bullshit policy bloggers searching for donors.) I use CIA Fact Book, and Global Firepower sites regularly. To find things quickly I use the reference links in wikipedia. BUILDING A LIST Take this next list. Go to google alerts. create an alert for each of them. (Really. that’s all I do). Repeat for Russia, middle east, china. If you pick Europe you will just find nonsense.) THINK TANKS NORTH AMERICAN DEFENSE LIST (80+)
Open Think Tank Directory
GOOGLE ALERTS Then pick some keywords, to make another set of alerts: I use military, strategy, forces, infantry, report, and about a dozen others in various permutations. Russian think tanks are useful for me. So I follow ЦСР (Center for Strategic Research). ЦAСT Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. There are also a number of bloggers that are quite good. For overviews for newbs follow Shervan’s Caspian Report on Youtube, Stratfor, George Friedman, and of course, Peter Zeihan for the Stratfor version with humor and irony. -
Dennett’s Literary (platonic) Explanation of Consciousness Is a Pseudoscientific Interpretation
Jan 30, 2020, 4:12 PM
—“I think Daniel Dennet regards consciousness as purely illusory which I have not in the past found comprehensible.”– A Friend
I think Dennett’s literary (platonic) explanation of consciousness is a pseudoscientific interpretation of the information we have at our disposal, but that I can interpret what he’s saying as simply primitive or romantic, or platonic narration of what is better explained in engineering terms. To say consciousness illusory makes no sense if Dennett means false. I don’t know what he means unless he is using a definition or standard that is nonsensical – and I think that’s the case. The experience we refer to as consciousness exists as experience that we can recall. But, instead of reforming philosophy and defining the term scientifically, he’s not reforming the term as it’s used in philosophy and therefor saying it’s illusory. I do the opposite and reform the term in philosophy as an error, and define it operationally (scientifically). In P what we do is reform all terms in all disciplines so that they are universally commensurable across all disciplines – or falsified. Operationally, predictions of fragments compete for attention and those that persist (aren’t falsified) cohere (survive) into what we consider experience. As far as I know we know the physical structure of the brain, how information is processed across, how coherence is produced by it, how memories are formed by it, and how attention is directed to control it, and what motivates(causes) our attention – at least at sufficiently to explain it in terms that are understandable as a mechanical process. the only difficult concept to explain is how our experience is coalesced into a stream of experience and momentary recursive comparison of changes in that memory – really, really, fast in real time. It’s so wonderful that it works that it’s terrifying. I think one of the aspects of mental existence we have no name for yet that we need to is the degree to which we grant precedence to sense(intuition), imagination(self), empathy (others, social), or reason (the analytic) – and whether we can even switch between them. Or put another way – the degree to which people are able to distinguish between an imaginary and non-correspondent perception of existence, and a predictive and correspondent perception of existence, and the priority we give to the sensory-emotional, physical, social, operational, or empirical experience of the world. It is very hard for me to imagine the world of hindus and muslims and not at all difficult the chinese or africans – even africans who still believe in magic. The degree of illusion created by mythologies somewhat amazes me and the addiction to these mythologies is something I have finally come to understand – it’s a very high cost to correct them. this is why theological abrahamism must never take root.
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Dennett’s Literary (platonic) Explanation of Consciousness Is a Pseudoscientific Interpretation
Jan 30, 2020, 4:12 PM
—“I think Daniel Dennet regards consciousness as purely illusory which I have not in the past found comprehensible.”– A Friend
I think Dennett’s literary (platonic) explanation of consciousness is a pseudoscientific interpretation of the information we have at our disposal, but that I can interpret what he’s saying as simply primitive or romantic, or platonic narration of what is better explained in engineering terms. To say consciousness illusory makes no sense if Dennett means false. I don’t know what he means unless he is using a definition or standard that is nonsensical – and I think that’s the case. The experience we refer to as consciousness exists as experience that we can recall. But, instead of reforming philosophy and defining the term scientifically, he’s not reforming the term as it’s used in philosophy and therefor saying it’s illusory. I do the opposite and reform the term in philosophy as an error, and define it operationally (scientifically). In P what we do is reform all terms in all disciplines so that they are universally commensurable across all disciplines – or falsified. Operationally, predictions of fragments compete for attention and those that persist (aren’t falsified) cohere (survive) into what we consider experience. As far as I know we know the physical structure of the brain, how information is processed across, how coherence is produced by it, how memories are formed by it, and how attention is directed to control it, and what motivates(causes) our attention – at least at sufficiently to explain it in terms that are understandable as a mechanical process. the only difficult concept to explain is how our experience is coalesced into a stream of experience and momentary recursive comparison of changes in that memory – really, really, fast in real time. It’s so wonderful that it works that it’s terrifying. I think one of the aspects of mental existence we have no name for yet that we need to is the degree to which we grant precedence to sense(intuition), imagination(self), empathy (others, social), or reason (the analytic) – and whether we can even switch between them. Or put another way – the degree to which people are able to distinguish between an imaginary and non-correspondent perception of existence, and a predictive and correspondent perception of existence, and the priority we give to the sensory-emotional, physical, social, operational, or empirical experience of the world. It is very hard for me to imagine the world of hindus and muslims and not at all difficult the chinese or africans – even africans who still believe in magic. The degree of illusion created by mythologies somewhat amazes me and the addiction to these mythologies is something I have finally come to understand – it’s a very high cost to correct them. this is why theological abrahamism must never take root.
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Christian Pseudoscience: Electric Universe and Langan’s Cognitive-Theoretic Model
Feb 1, 2020, 9:42 AM Each is another ridiculous pseudoscience – it’s just christian biased pseudoscience vs jewish biased pseudoscience(marx, freud, cantor, boas, bohr, derrida, friedan, etc). Every culture has tried some version of pseudoscience or sophistry to persist it’s traditional model of the universe. But, no pseudoscience pls. We know the laws of the universe. We have at least one problem left and I am pretty sure we will have to solve it by computational trial and error like protein folding. We may or may not ever know how many universes there are, and how they emerge, but within this universe we are going to know relatively shortly as much about the physical and biological as we do about the atomic and chemical. The only thing I put forward is that these same laws apply to man’s behavior, and that memory provides an accounting system that allows us to cooperate by trade of debts and credits in time. If there are gods, they have written their laws in the universe for all of us to see. The rest of history is full of men who lied or told half truths about those laws. And there appears to be no means by which for any god to influence us, other than as stories in the minds of others. This is where science leads. This is why some people need faith. Because they cannot bear the truth. And we must not deprive people of their means of sedation. On the other hand we may not permit them to influence the material world with their sedatives.
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Christian Pseudoscience: Electric Universe and Langan’s Cognitive-Theoretic Model
Feb 1, 2020, 9:42 AM Each is another ridiculous pseudoscience – it’s just christian biased pseudoscience vs jewish biased pseudoscience(marx, freud, cantor, boas, bohr, derrida, friedan, etc). Every culture has tried some version of pseudoscience or sophistry to persist it’s traditional model of the universe. But, no pseudoscience pls. We know the laws of the universe. We have at least one problem left and I am pretty sure we will have to solve it by computational trial and error like protein folding. We may or may not ever know how many universes there are, and how they emerge, but within this universe we are going to know relatively shortly as much about the physical and biological as we do about the atomic and chemical. The only thing I put forward is that these same laws apply to man’s behavior, and that memory provides an accounting system that allows us to cooperate by trade of debts and credits in time. If there are gods, they have written their laws in the universe for all of us to see. The rest of history is full of men who lied or told half truths about those laws. And there appears to be no means by which for any god to influence us, other than as stories in the minds of others. This is where science leads. This is why some people need faith. Because they cannot bear the truth. And we must not deprive people of their means of sedation. On the other hand we may not permit them to influence the material world with their sedatives.
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Ordinary Flu Deaths Each Year Are Limited
Feb 1, 2020, 11:35 AM (compiled) According to the World Health Organization (WHO), flu globally attacks 5%–10% adults and 20%–30% children annually. According to the CDC, during the year when the influenza A (H3N2) viruses are prominent, death rates are typically more than double as compared to seasons when the influenza A (H1N1) or influenza B viruses dominate. This is because the influenza A (H3N2) virus is far more potent and contagious than the H1N1 influenza virus. Hospitalizations and flu season deaths occur mainly among the high-risk groups such as young children below the age of 5 years, the elderly above the age of 65 years, and those with chronic medical illnesses. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), experts say the flu season is in full swing with an estimated 4.6 million flu illnesses, 39,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths from flu so far this season. The rate of outpatient visits for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) spiked in the week ending on Dec 21, from 3.9% to 5.1% — a trend typically seen during winter holidays. Rates of ILI have been above the national baseline of 2.4% for 7 weeks. Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and New York City reported high levels of ILI. Flu activity was described as widespread in 39 states. The CDC said hospitalization rates rose to 6.6 per 100,000 population, up from 5.5 per 100,000 population during the second week of December. The highest rate of hospitalization was among adults aged older than 65 (14.4 per 100,000 population), followed by children ages 0 to 4 (12.5 per 100,000 population) and adults ages 50 to 64 (7.0 per 100,000 population). All age groups have seen a significant increase in the last week. The CDC said hospitalization rates mirror previous seasons. Influenza A has been detected in 52.9% of hospitalized cases, and 46.4% were associated with influenza B. In testing at public health labs, influenza B accounts for 58.8% of positive flu samples collected from across the country, 98.7% of which are Victoria lineage. Influenza A was detected in 41.2% of specimens, with most of those (94.8%) subtyped as the H1N1 strain first seen in 2009. “Activity is being caused mostly by influenza B/Victoria viruses, which is unusual for this time of year. A(H1N1) viruses are the next most common and are increasing in proportion relative to other influenza viruses in some regions,” the CDC said. Three pediatric deaths were also recorded in the last week, raising the season’s total to 22. All three recent deaths were associated with influenza B viruses; only six deaths in total this season have been associated with influenza A. In the 2018-2019 flu season, the CDC confirmed 143 pediatric deaths. The CDC encouraged all who have not yet done so to receive a seasonal influenza vaccine, as the season is set to last for several more weeks. DEATHS DUE DO EPIDEMICS The world has seen five pandemics during the last century, which took a large number of lives. Here are the figures of deaths that occurred in the United States and Worldwide during those years.
1889 Russian Flu Pandemic – about 1 million flu deaths
“Spanish flu” A of 1918-19 caused the highest number of influenza-related deaths: approximately 500,000 deaths occurred in the U.S. and 20 million worldwide. That figure is more than the total number of deaths caused by the World War one — 16 million. As a matter of fact, during that year, the flu had killed more people than any other illness in recorded history.
“Asian flu” A of 1957-58 caused 70,000 deaths in the United States and about one million to two million deaths worldwide
“Hong-Kong flu” A of 1968-69 resulted in 34,000 deaths in the United States and an estimated one million to three million people died worldwide.
2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic – about 18,300 deaths in the United States and up to 203,000 deaths worldwide
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Ordinary Flu Deaths Each Year Are Limited
Feb 1, 2020, 11:35 AM (compiled) According to the World Health Organization (WHO), flu globally attacks 5%–10% adults and 20%–30% children annually. According to the CDC, during the year when the influenza A (H3N2) viruses are prominent, death rates are typically more than double as compared to seasons when the influenza A (H1N1) or influenza B viruses dominate. This is because the influenza A (H3N2) virus is far more potent and contagious than the H1N1 influenza virus. Hospitalizations and flu season deaths occur mainly among the high-risk groups such as young children below the age of 5 years, the elderly above the age of 65 years, and those with chronic medical illnesses. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), experts say the flu season is in full swing with an estimated 4.6 million flu illnesses, 39,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths from flu so far this season. The rate of outpatient visits for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) spiked in the week ending on Dec 21, from 3.9% to 5.1% — a trend typically seen during winter holidays. Rates of ILI have been above the national baseline of 2.4% for 7 weeks. Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and New York City reported high levels of ILI. Flu activity was described as widespread in 39 states. The CDC said hospitalization rates rose to 6.6 per 100,000 population, up from 5.5 per 100,000 population during the second week of December. The highest rate of hospitalization was among adults aged older than 65 (14.4 per 100,000 population), followed by children ages 0 to 4 (12.5 per 100,000 population) and adults ages 50 to 64 (7.0 per 100,000 population). All age groups have seen a significant increase in the last week. The CDC said hospitalization rates mirror previous seasons. Influenza A has been detected in 52.9% of hospitalized cases, and 46.4% were associated with influenza B. In testing at public health labs, influenza B accounts for 58.8% of positive flu samples collected from across the country, 98.7% of which are Victoria lineage. Influenza A was detected in 41.2% of specimens, with most of those (94.8%) subtyped as the H1N1 strain first seen in 2009. “Activity is being caused mostly by influenza B/Victoria viruses, which is unusual for this time of year. A(H1N1) viruses are the next most common and are increasing in proportion relative to other influenza viruses in some regions,” the CDC said. Three pediatric deaths were also recorded in the last week, raising the season’s total to 22. All three recent deaths were associated with influenza B viruses; only six deaths in total this season have been associated with influenza A. In the 2018-2019 flu season, the CDC confirmed 143 pediatric deaths. The CDC encouraged all who have not yet done so to receive a seasonal influenza vaccine, as the season is set to last for several more weeks. DEATHS DUE DO EPIDEMICS The world has seen five pandemics during the last century, which took a large number of lives. Here are the figures of deaths that occurred in the United States and Worldwide during those years.
1889 Russian Flu Pandemic – about 1 million flu deaths
“Spanish flu” A of 1918-19 caused the highest number of influenza-related deaths: approximately 500,000 deaths occurred in the U.S. and 20 million worldwide. That figure is more than the total number of deaths caused by the World War one — 16 million. As a matter of fact, during that year, the flu had killed more people than any other illness in recorded history.
“Asian flu” A of 1957-58 caused 70,000 deaths in the United States and about one million to two million deaths worldwide
“Hong-Kong flu” A of 1968-69 resulted in 34,000 deaths in the United States and an estimated one million to three million people died worldwide.
2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic – about 18,300 deaths in the United States and up to 203,000 deaths worldwide