WHy does russia have any say over people who live in a different country, are of a different ethnicity, and speak a different language, and have greater memories of association with austria-hungary than russia?
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 22:43:52 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487557133692547074
Reply addressees: @pavelnikulin1 @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487556431809294339
Same for Ukrainians. Why would they give up the chance of following poland into freedom and prosperity instead of totalitarianism of russians who have lied, denied, invaded, murdered, and undermined their government?
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 22:43:01 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487556920378630144
Reply addressees: @pavelnikulin1 @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487556431809294339
Well you know, this is why conservatives (myself included) say ‘russia is right’ on democracy. It’s just that expansion by violence and threats rather than simply ‘taking over nato’ as the USA retreats from europe is … ‘dumb’. It’s just more certain (impatient).
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 22:38:10 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487555699152404480
Reply addressees: @pavelnikulin1 @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487553989189283846
(While you are probably assuming I’m just some idiot on a keyboard, I have participated in war games and various intel initiatives that have been since made public, and I was active in UA before, during, and after Maydan.)
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 22:34:37 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487554802544427011
Reply addressees: @pavelnikulin1 @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487552406246277127
The reason Putin ‘blinked’ b/c of Maydan was the spread of democratic revolts to fires in Moscow and St Petersburg. Intel and State have followed the formation of these strategy/tactics including recent increase in suppression of foreign influencers in preparation.Very methodical
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 22:30:39 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487553806040813569
Reply addressees: @pavelnikulin1 @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487552406246277127
That said, we are (and certainly the intel community is) aware of the multi-dimensional nature of incentives, and the difference in incentives between rulers, elites, and the common people. We have known this plan since it leaked to intel. (Most Kremlin plans leak).
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 22:28:54 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487553363998826500
Reply addressees: @pavelnikulin1 @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487552406246277127
He and Xi are both running up against age, and legacy, and are seizing the opportunity to overcome their postwar ‘fails’, created by the withdrawal of the USA from policing of world patterns of finance, transportation, and trade. Threat of three war fronts emboldens vs demography
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 22:25:53 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487552605295415302
Reply addressees: @FlvxSurfing @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487551816556556288
It won’t take nukes. It will take conventional forces, and about three months, and he will install a puppet government in kiev, and simply endure ten or tewenty years of insurgency against the puppet government and russian insurgents.
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 21:56:53 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487545307369979909
Reply addressees: @PaulWartenberg @soonergrunt @JasonKirell
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487542739248070660
It’s because he’s terrified that a democatic Ukraine, integrated into Europe, that is prosperous, will drive demand for the same democracy and wealth into Moscow.
That’s the reason. Everything else is smoke.
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 21:55:30 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487544960719200256
Reply addressees: @RaymondSoCal @amvetsupport
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487542778926026752
Putin is terrified of the Expansion of Democracy into Russia. That’s it. That’s all this is about. If Ukraine can have a democratic government, and follow Poland into equal prosperity, leaving Russia as the poor-child of Europe, then it falsifies Putin’s authoritarian rule.
Source date (UTC): 2022-01-29 21:54:15 UTC
Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487544647626985477
Reply addressees: @10FathomLine @anders_aslund
Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1487542851042906117