Category: Politics, Power, and Governance

FUTURE: TURKEY, IRAN, AND EGYPT VS THE ARABS
I Don’t disagree on potential of these countries.
I. Turkey is ethnically greek (indo european), despite the Kurds who dominate half of the country are Iranic.
II. Iran is a mess but it’s still got enough ethnically persian (indo european).
And III. Egypt isn’t all that arabized and are at least half ancient egyptian (south eurasian)
All three of these countries suffer from (a) arabization and (b) islamization. (c) diversity. It’s tragic. And look what happend just to Lebanon recently. A catholic wealthy successful country turned into a disaster by muslim immigration.

I. TURKEY
Turkey is more than half Indo European, with little Arab genetic contribution.

Indigenous Anatolian Component:
a) Anatolian Influence: Before the Turkic migrations, the Anatolian peninsula was home to various indigenous groups, such as Hittites, Urartians, and others. Estimates suggest that this component could make up around 20-30% of the genetic landscape.

b) Greek, Bulgarian, and Other Balkan Influence: Due to the Ottoman Empire’s rule over the Balkans and subsequent population exchanges, there is a notable Balkan genetic component, possibly around 10-20%.

c) Caucasian Component:
Armenian, Georgian, and Circassian Influence: Particularly in Eastern and Northeastern Turkey, the Caucasian influence is notable. This could be estimated around 5-15%.
(In other words, Turkey is 50-65% Indo European – which they really, really, don’t like by the way.;) )

Turkic Component:
Oghuz Turks and Central Asian Influence: This is the most significant component due to the Turkic migrations and the establishment of the Ottoman Empire. This could range from 30-40%.

Kurdish Component:
Southern and Southeastern Regions: In regions bordering Syria and Iraq, there is some Arab and Kurdish influence, possibly making up around 10-20%.
(Unfortunately I don’t see good numbers, but my estimation based on more recent data is that the Kurdish percentage is around 20%, the Arab is quite small. And the Turkic component is heavily overstated.

Other Minorities:
Jewish, Laz, and Others: These smaller groups contribute to the remaining genetic composition and are hard to quantify but might range around 1-5%.

II. IRAN
Iran is still 50-60% iranic.

Indigenous Component:
a) Persian Influence: The majority ethnic group in Iran is Persian, and they are estimated to make up around 50-60% of the population. Genetically, they are a mix of ancient Iranian peoples and subsequent migrations.
b) Aryan Migration: The initial Aryan migration into the Iranian plateau has left a significant genetic component. While it’s challenging to quantify precisely, it could be considered as part of the “Indigenous Component.”

Arab Component:
Islamic Conquests and Later Migrations: The Arab component is less pronounced in Iran compared to some other countries in the region, estimated to be around 10-15%.

Turkic Component:
Turkmen, Azeris, and other Turkic groups: Turkic peoples, particularly Azeris, are a significant minority in Iran, and their genetic influence might range from 15-25%.

Other Minorities:
Kurds, Baloch, and Others: These groups contribute to the remaining genetic composition, which could range around 10-20%.

Caucasian and Russian Influence:
Northern Regions: In the northern regions adjacent to the Caucasus and Central Asia, there’s some genetic influence from these areas, estimated to be less than 5%.

South Asian Influence:
Eastern Regions: In regions bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, there is some South Asian genetic influence, also estimated to be less than 5%.

III. EGYPT
Egyptian Genetics: not very arabized.
(note that I included the south eurasian component to avoid conflation)

South Eurasian Component:
Ancient Egyptian Influence: This could be estimated to comprise around 40-50% of the genetic makeup, being a significant portion that represents continuity from ancient populations.

North African Component:
Berber and Indigenous Influence: Estimates vary, but this could be around 10-20% of the genetic makeup, particularly in Western Egypt.

Nubian or Sub-Saharan African Influence:
In Upper Egypt, this component may be more prevalent, potentially around 15-25%.

European Component:
Greek and Roman Influence: Given the historical periods of Greek and Roman rule, this component could be around 5-10%.

Arab Component:
Islamic Conquests, Trade and Later Migrations: Depending on the region, the Arab component could vary significantly but generally might make up around 15-25% of the genetic makeup.

Reply addressees: @FernandoGLV1212