Category: Politics, Power, and Governance

OCCUPATION FORCES ARE NOW IMPOSSIBLE

—“America never lost in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It won decisively on them. But its failed as an occupation force. The last successful occupational power is China (in Tibet).”— Anon

Why?

1 – Armies are smaller in number, with greater use of technology and higher dependence upon special forces. IOW they rely on high asymmetry of organization, technology, and skill (just as early europeans relied upon contractual (voluntary) organization and maneuver, bronze/horse/wheel, and professional warriors.

2 – Advances in small arms – particularly RPG’s and explosives – have made very small numbers of men who can retreat into natural terrain both urban, suburban and rural, very powerful against occupation forces.

3 – Armies of occupation require vast numbers, where the cost of asymmetry of power assists in maneuver. And concentration of forces (all men are cavalry so to speak), but occupation requires vast numbers of men who are relatively cheap – and a high tolerance for losses.

4 – Large populations are a detriment not a benefit and this will increase going forward. Population beyond the level necessary to produce a competitive economy, and sufficient surplus to produce a professional military, there is no value to population. Population will increasingly be a detriment. So occupation of territory for other than as a defensive means *against populations and disordered populations* is no longer meaningful.

5 – The logical tactic is to kill large numbers of unnecessary people in order to obtain access to resources, or to transport resources and goods. Because population, labor, and their market for consumption is now a detriment rather than an asset. Small, homogenous, high trust, high intelligence, technologically advanced, populations where we can concentrate redistribution will rapidly become a primary asset of any polity. This is the consequence of the near zero value of labor, and the near zero value of non-self-organizing population.

6 – The only thing preventing strategic adaptation to the low value of population and low value of extra territory is the benevolence of major powers under democratic and popular rule. This is because a government who would do such things would be put into question by their own people. But there is zero reason to believe this sentiment will remain.

7 – The strategy for small states is to create a nearly universal militia, a small special forces military, and a number of nuclear weapons. The strategy for responsible states is to prohibit the possession of nuclear weapons to primitive states and economies.

The uncomfortable truth.

Curt Doolittle