http://ncfmr.bgsu.edu/pdf/family_profiles/file131529.pdfGood current data.
Lowest rate of marriage in a century.
Oldest rate.
15% of divorced women stay that way. Mostly in the lower classes.
Numbers are worse than they sound. But my iphone battery is going. 🙂
Source date (UTC): 2013-07-26 15:27:00 UTC
https://www.quora.com/What-does-it-feel-like-to-be-intelligent-enough-to-understand-how-dumb-one-often-is
https://www.quora.com/What-does-it-feel-like-to-be-intelligent-enough-to-understand-how-dumb-one-often-is
http://scienceblog.com/64835/want-to-be-safe-move-to-the-city-no-really/IT’S A PHYSICALLY DANGEROUS WORLD OUT HERE IN RURAL AMERICA 🙂
And you wonder why people are conservative there….. Conservatism is a prohibition on hubris. Rural opportunity costs are high, risk is higher. But most of rural danger come from just fixing your house, and driving a car. 🙂
“Although the risk of homicide is higher in big cities, the risk of unintentional injury death is 40 percent higher in the most rural areas than in the most urban. And overall, the rate of unintentional injury dwarfs the risk of homicide, with the rate of unintentional injury more than 15 times that of homicide among the entire population. “
Source date (UTC): 2013-07-23 09:59:00 UTC
THE MOST SERIOUS COGNITIVE BIAS?
It depends on the problem we’re discussing.
Politically, it’s the vanity of the presumption of knowledge:
a) Projection bias: The tendency to unconsciously assume that others share the same or similar thoughts, beliefs, values, or positions.
b) False consensus effect: The tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.
c) Bandwagon effect: The tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behaviour.
d) Confusing Economic and political truth with: preference, morality, signaling, reproductive organization, and reproductive strategy – (That’s all it is.)
The only property of politics that is ‘true’ is that which is necessity in achieving the goals set forth by assumptions. And the goals set forth can mature with both short or long term consequences.
Economic opportunity determines productive structure, which determines property rights and formal institutions, which determines reproductive structure – and norms that evolve are a trailing indicator.
You can choose or not choose, to adopt guns germs and steel. But you cannot choose what happens if you do not adopt them.
Source date (UTC): 2013-07-21 07:30:00 UTC
(Legal Equality is Necessary, Economic Equality is Unattainable, and Genetic Equality is Undesirable – Your Genes Matter) A friend posted an interestingly common white lament, that provides an excellent jumping off point for criticizing postmodern values.
Lee: I am in the top 1% economic class of the world. This is due purely to an accident of birth and nothing more. … Whatever intelligence or resolve I may have is due to the genetic lottery. … But these genetic endowments do not mean that I have been randomly placed in the economic hierarchy by the greedy powers that be. My limited intelligence and conscientiousness is actually worth something to my employer. Jeorg: Unless conscientiousness is also genetic. Lee: Yes… It is likely that we have some control. Setting an alarm clock requires forethought … François-René: “is genetic” and “we have some control” are not mutually incompatible. At all.
[W]e have many genetic predispositions that we override. We do this through incentives via habits, traditions, myths, norms, laws and institutions. But there is a very great difference between redirection, avoidance and suppression through incentives and changing or eliminating genetic dispositions. The statement that you have no right to advantage because of the accident of your birth, is logically interesting because its the down side of western individualist thought. You cannot exist without your familial relations.
[pullquote]You are a reflection of a long sequence of choices.[/pullquote]
Does it make sense to you that humans can instinctively identify those traits and reward them? Does it make sense that the evolutionary consequences of not doing so would be detrimental? Even suicidal for a species? It is important in disputes that law treat us equally because it is necessary for the preservation of suppressing violence by forcing all competition into voluntary exchange. Otherwise the institution cannot provide the incentive to suppress our instincts and redirect our efforts. But [pullquote] the western illusion that those values necessary to create incentives for us as an individual economic unit can insulate us from our family, and clan, and the necessary operation of our reproductive evolutionary system is a postmodernist, socialist fiction that assumes economic and legal equality can be extended to genetic equality[/pullquote] – contrary to all evidence and reason. The rawlsian veil of ignorance is a complex rhetorical device for the neurolinguistic programming of the masses precisely to confuse them into the illusion of biological equality and to divorce the individual from his ancestry so that his loyalties are to the state and rather than to his familial genetic heritage. The blank slate, likewise is a device for the same purpose. So are diversity and open immigration. Other civilizations do not make this error. Ours is in numeric decline partly because of it. So no you are not an individual comparable to other individuals except to the blindfolded statue of justice under the law and the gavel. Socially you are the representation of a sequence of choices embeded in genes and are the recipient of more opportunities for influence and reproduction because of it. And dysgenia, and even extinction would of necessity occur if humans acted otherwise. We are in a constant battle against the evolutionary red queen, and against reproductions regression toward the mean. The only solution is assortive mating and the concentration of influence, opportunity, capital and reproduction behind such genes. [O]ne more thing. Time preference, and ‘frustration budget’ are genetically determined. IQ is significantly heritable (it’s complex though), and social classes are organized almost entirely by IQ. Variation in social classes is determined by time preference, frustration budget, or what we tend to call the discipline-impulsiviness spectrum. Variation in the social classes is also determined by attractiveness: symmetry, height, thickness of skin, clarity of skin, and a variety of other factors that suggest genetic fitness. Economic classes vary from social classes because under consumer capitalism, a Watkins or Crick does not produce as many paying customers as the designer of velcro, or fast, consistent, cheeseburgers. Economic outliers are determined by lottery. But that is not to discount the value of lottery. If the lottery reward does not exist, then there is no motivation for high risk. So yes, discipline and looks matter in society because they matter to our genes, and they matter to humanity as a species.
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ejhg2013155a.htmlANOTHER NAIL IN THE POSTMODERNIST COFFIN : BREEDING
(Profound)
People are mammals.
Breeding people is no different from breeding dogs. We inherit our traits. Positive and negative.
Assortive mating (breeding) reinforces traits good and bad and prevents natural regression toward the mean.
Inbreeding (cousin marriage in pakistanis, inbreeding in ashkenazi jews) prevents genetic cure of diseases and defects, and instead replicates those traits. Likewise excessive outbreeding regresses the gene pool toward the mean again.
Assortive mating, intra-class breeding, and natural rotation of elites, produce concentrations of talents while supressing undesirable traits.
Our races are analogous to breeds. Our classes also.
The distribution of traits matters because status signals, selection, and cooperation, as well as genetic preference, are higher in group than out group. This is a near universal human bias. Humans act this way no matter what we do.
The market is society. We are all the same value as customers. We must all have the same value before the law.
But we are not all the same value as coworkers, family members or mates. And we are not the same value to humanity either in contribution or genes.
Humans began speciating upon exit of Africa. We were so successful that the speciation was incomplete. We are merely exaggerated breeds. Under mobile populations, industrialization, and consumer capitalism we have, as have the hindus, begun the process of speciating by class.
This matters because it requires a sufficient percentage of any population to both possess an iq greater than 105 in order for a division of knowledge and labor to form under contractual complexity, and for corruption to diminish sufficiently. It also appears that the Pareto rule is not possible to alter, because the majority of assets must be under the control of this more talented group.
A free society then, in the libertarian sense, can only exist in a population of males where 80% of the resources are in hands of those 20% with iq over 105 and there is no opportunity to overturn the allocation of property rights by political means. (Natural Aristocracy).
Or, egalitarian freedom can exist only where the numerical majority’s iq is over 105. (Enlightenment England, 20th century ashkenazim, east asia), And where that majority has political control, and that majority is prohibited from cousin marriage long enough that private property becomes a normative and trust evolves into the extra familial. It also means states must be small, homogenous nation states.
Freedom then is a ‘perfect storm’. Thats why its unique to the west, and high trust society is unique to the Small Arc from England to Switzerland.
POSITION
this doesn’t mean we return to the past. It does mean that we cannot have any future we choose because it is constrained by these necessities.
It means:
Redistribution as calculated by income, without constraining reproduction forces genetic, legal, and normative regression toward the mean.
Immigration outside of culture and gene pool is limited to that which integrates successfully.
The goal for any society should not be downward reproduction but encouragement and funding of reproduction in the middle and upper middle classes. And improvement in the quality of life of the lower classes as long as they adhere to a one child policy.
Time will take care of the rest.
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ejhg2013155a.html
QUOTE:
“Another difference between inbreeding and assortative mating is that the effects of inbreeding are expected to be negative, lowering cognitive ability, whereas the effects of assortative mating affect the high, as well as the low end of the ability distribution, thus increasing genetic bariance, that is, when high-ability parents mate assortatively, their children are more likely to be homozygous for variants for high ability, just as offspring of low-ability parents are more likely to be homozygous for variants for low ability….”
Source date (UTC): 2013-07-18 07:02:00 UTC
http://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/BF03201107INTERESTING BRAIN STUFF: “VERBAL OVERSHADOWING”
When talking about something screws up your memory of it.
I sometimes tell people “If I talk about it, it will ruin my thought process”. I’ve noticed this is particularly true if I’m trying to predict some future event. So I actively avoid talking about certain things until I’m ready.
Same thing happens to authors who talk about their work, or show their work to people. Overshadowing alters your perception of it. Irreversibly.
We cannot often separate things. The mind has vaporously thin walls.
Source date (UTC): 2013-07-17 11:48:00 UTC
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289613000810?np=yGENETIC SUPERIORITY EVERYWHERE: 80% NATURE 20% NURTURE
It’s so slow it’s like water torture, but each day we chip away at the progressive fantasy of the blank slate.
(Now, if I’d just gotten the TALL genes, instead of the Breton genes… lol)
MORE ON IQ:
1) More than half of the difference between expert and normal readers is genetic.
2) Expert readers show the same genetic effects as normal readers.
3) Less than a fifth of the expert-normal difference is due to shared environment.
4) Passive models of training regimes imposed on children address ‘what could be’.
5) Active models of selected environments will foster the acquisition of expertise.
Abstract
Rather than investigating the extent to which training can improve performance under experimental conditions (‘what could be’), we ask about the origins of expertise as it exists in the world (‘what is’). We used the twin method to investigate the genetic and environmental origins of exceptional performance in reading, a skill that is a major focus of educational training in the early school years. Selecting reading experts as the top 5% from a sample of 10,000 12-year-old twins assessed on a battery of reading tests, three findings stand out. First, we found that genetic factors account for more than half of the difference in performance between expert and normal readers. Second, our results suggest that reading expertise is the quantitative extreme of the same genetic and environmental factors that affect reading performance for normal readers. Third, growing up in the same family and attending the same schools account for less than a fifth of the difference between expert and normal readers. We discuss implications and interpretations (‘what is inherited is DNA sequence variation’; ‘the abnormal is normal’). Finally, although there is no necessary relationship between ‘what is’ and ‘what could be’, the most far-reaching issues about the acquisition of expertise lie at the interface between them (‘the nature of nurture: from a passive model of imposed environments to an active model of shaped experience’).
Source date (UTC): 2013-07-17 10:24:00 UTC
LAZIEST PEOPLE IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD?
United Kingdom : 63.3% inactive.
Followed by Japan at 60%, and
trailing are the Italians at 54.7%, and
the Irish: 53.2%.
Does anyone know if this data is supportable?
Never looked into this data before. Fascinating. 🙂
Source date (UTC): 2013-07-16 10:20:00 UTC