THE MOST SERIOUS COGNITIVE BIAS? It depends on the problem we’re discussing. Pol

THE MOST SERIOUS COGNITIVE BIAS?

It depends on the problem we’re discussing.

Politically, it’s the vanity of the presumption of knowledge:

a) Projection bias: The tendency to unconsciously assume that others share the same or similar thoughts, beliefs, values, or positions.

b) False consensus effect: The tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.

c) Bandwagon effect: The tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behaviour.

d) Confusing Economic and political truth with: preference, morality, signaling, reproductive organization, and reproductive strategy – (That’s all it is.)

The only property of politics that is ‘true’ is that which is necessity in achieving the goals set forth by assumptions. And the goals set forth can mature with both short or long term consequences.

Economic opportunity determines productive structure, which determines property rights and formal institutions, which determines reproductive structure – and norms that evolve are a trailing indicator.

You can choose or not choose, to adopt guns germs and steel. But you cannot choose what happens if you do not adopt them.