Category: Epistemology and Method

DISAMBIGUATING THE SPECTRUM OF BELIEF: WE HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD -NOT FAITH. 😉
(or Faith != Belief != Confidence)
(The sufficiency of confidence in one’s mental predictions to warranty taking corresponding actions in the face of cost and risk. Or what in The Work (P-Law) we call the provision of decidability sufficient to satisfy demand for infallibility: Or what we define as the truth spectrum.

OR: “I love you Sabine Hossenfelder @skdh, but Faith != Belief != Confidence”, and Induction conveys no confidence but is necessary for ideation that may then lead to hypotheses. 😉 So we don’t have faith in the scientific method we have confidence in it. 😉
RE: https://t.co/3khQyE44np

Let’s explain:

REGARDING HUME
In the sequence Deduction > Induction > Abduction > Guess > Idea via auto-association, each term merely provides us with fewer dimensions of consistency and correspondence for use by our minds (Hippocampal region CA1) to produce suggestions to investigate and determine if these ideas survive falsification.
In an era of cognitive science we know how the brain performs these functions. In his era, Hume was counseling against an over reliance on reason and especially justification, and in doing so he was demanding that empiricism (due diligence by demonstrated actions) was necessary, rather than induction providing any increase in the likelihood our imaginings are correct. This is effectively what Karl Popper was saying two centuries later, with even greater precision, and concordance with Darwin: Ideas survive they are not proved. Proof is a term from mathematics that refrs to demonstration of internal consistency of a sequence of deductive operations. It is an axiomatic (logical and declarative) not scientific (physical and descriptive) term. In science (the production of testimony) ideas survive or they do not.

In other words Hume wasn’t claiming that induction was an illusion – he was claiming that it didn’t contribute to predictive likelihood: truth. Yet it did contribute to the process of ideation that could later be subject to sufficient due diligence that it might survive the individual, the market for its application, and the market for competing theories.

DEFINITION OF “BELIEF”

1. Cognitive science. In cognitive science, a belief is understood as a mental representation of an attitude positively oriented towards the likelihood of something being true. (Prediction) Beliefs in this context are central to information processing and guide decision-making and problem-solving. They influence how we perceive and interact with the world and can be shaped by both internal cognition and external stimuli.

2. Psychology views beliefs as mental constructs that represent an individual’s understanding and interpretation of the world. (Predictions) These constructs are not just passive information stores but active elements in shaping thoughts, emotions, and behaviors. Beliefs in psychology are often linked with attitudes and values, influencing how individuals react emotionally and behaviorally to various situations.

3. Behavioral economics defines beliefs as drivers of economic behavior, significantly influencing decision-making processes. Beliefs in this discipline often pertain to an individual’s expectations about outcomes and risks. They play a crucial role in understanding why people make seemingly irrational economic decisions, diverging from the traditional economic assumption of complete rationality.

BELIEF AS A STANDARD OF WEIGHT AND MEASURE
We will use the term Belief (Believe) as the general term for

THE SPECTRUM OF WILLINGNESS TO ACT GIVEN THE DEMAND FOR INFALLIBILITY

CAUSALITY
Instinct refers to innate, biologically driven behaviors that are typically hardwired into an organism. In humans, these can be primal responses like fight-or-flight reactions. Cognitive science views instincts as foundational responses that precede conscious reasoning.

Intuition refers to the ability to understand something immediately, without the need for conscious reasoning. It’s a step beyond instinct, involving subconscious processing based on past experiences and learned patterns. Intuition acts as a rapid, often affect-laden, assessment of a situation or information.

AutoAssociation refers to the automatic linking of related concepts or experiences. It’s a subconscious process where exposure to one stimulus triggers the recall of an associated stimulus. This process is crucial in forming preliminary concepts and ideas.

IDEA
Idea refers to the transition from subconscious processes to conscious thought. An idea is a cognitive construct that arises from the synthesis of various associations, intuitions, and information. It’s more structured and deliberate compared to instinct and intuition.

HYPOTHESIS
*Belief (Self) Acceptance that something exists or is true, especially without necessary and sufficient evidence to claim it is true. Beliefs can be based on faith, cultural teachings, or personal reasoning, or personal convictions.

Faith (Intuition and others) in the Supernatural (Imaginable Justification). Involves a strong, unwavering conviction in something without requiring empirical evidence such as religious or spiritual beliefs.

Trust (others) in the Empirical (Observable Evidence). A reliance on the character, ability, strength, or truth of someone or something. Trust often develops from personal experience or credible information.

Assurance (market) – A sense of confidence or certainty in a belief or trust, typically based on experience, repeated evidence, or strong rational reasoning.

THEORY
Confidence (adversarial market) in the Scientific (Testifiable Due Diligence). A firm belief in something with a strong basis in evidence or experience.

Conviction (Survival) – A more intense form of confidence, often accompanied by a personal commitment to the belief or idea.

Certainty (Exhaustion of the Market for Falsification) – A mental state where one has no doubt about the information or belief, often based on a combination of evidence, experience, and reasoning.

LAW
Incontrovertibility – This refers to a state of mind where the belief or knowledge is considered undeniable, often due to overwhelming evidence or logical coherence.

AXIOMATIC LAW
Axiomatic Certainty – A belief that is accepted as a fundamental truth, often considered self-evident and used as a foundational principle for further reasoning or belief systems.

COGNITIVE BIASES INFLUENCE THE TRANSITION FROM CONFIDENCE TO AXIOMATIC BELIEFS:
Cognitive Biases
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. They influence how individuals process information and form beliefs, often leading to errors in reasoning.

1. Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs. It plays a crucial role in strengthening conviction as individuals tend to disregard information that contradicts their existing beliefs, leading to a solidification of those beliefs.

2. Availability Heuristic
This heuristic involves overestimating the importance of information that is readily available. It can lead to a perception of incontrovertibility, as individuals might give undue weight to recent or memorable events when forming beliefs.

3. Anchoring Bias
Anchoring occurs when individuals rely too heavily on an initial piece of information (the “anchor”) when making decisions. This bias can lead to the formation of axiomatic beliefs if the initial information is accepted without critical scrutiny and used as a basis for further reasoning.

4. Dunning-Kruger Effect
This cognitive bias refers to a situation where individuals with limited knowledge or competence in a domain overestimate their own abilities. In the context of belief formation, this can lead to unwarranted confidence and a lack of recognition of one’s own limitations in understanding.

5. Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort experienced by a person who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values. This discomfort often leads to an alteration in one of the beliefs or attitudes to reduce the discomfort and restore balance.

Understanding cognitive biases is essential in comprehending how choice evolves and solidifies. Recognizing these biases can help in critically evaluating one’s own intuitions, thoughts, ideas and in making more informed decisions.

CONCLUSION
I could, and probably should combine my work on decidability, with my work on the spectrum of truth, with this work on the spectrum of beliefs (hypotheses) in a quaint little table which I assume would be a public service but I have to finish re-reading a hundred page paper in the two hours, compiling notes and feedback so it will have to wait for another day. 😉

Cheers

Curt Doolittle
The Natural Law Institute
The Science of Cooperation