Category: Epistemology and Method

  • Updating English Spelling? Not so fast, maybe.

    For some reason, Joseph Fouche from The Committee On Public Safety found a proposal on revising English Spelling interesting enough to write about. He lifts this example:

    It woz in the ferst dae ov the nue yeer that the anounsment woz maed, aulmoest simultaeneusli from three obzervatoris, that the moeshen ov the planet Neptune, the outermoest ov aul the planets that w(h)eel about the sun, had bekum very eratik. A retardaeshen in its velositi had been suspekted in Desember. Then a faent, remoet spek ov lyt woz diskuverd in the reejen ov the perterbd planet. At ferst this did not cauz eni veri graet eksytment. Syentifik peepl, houever, found the intelijens remarkabl enuf, eeven befor it becaem noen that the nue bodi woz rapidli groeing larjer and bryter, and that the moeshen woz kwyt diferent from the orderli proegres ov the planets…

    For some other reason known only to those of us who are social science nerds, I felt the need to respond. Possibly because I am a conservative by nature. Possibly because I understand as an economist, the value of CAPITALIZING just about everything. And that language is a form of capital that can either amplify or discount human beings that use it. SPELLING IN ENGLISH CONVEYS INFORMATION The odd spelling certainly makes the language harder to learn but conveys with it much greater content, and it solves the problem of homonyms (words that sound the same but have different meanings) and context. Complex spellings approach abstract symbols that reduce the problem of defining context with similar sounds. All those spellings and oddities convey information. That information is useful. THERE IS NO REASON THE FUTURE OF WRITTEN LANGUAGE IS CONSONANTAL It might be better to see it as an advantage for a very complex language to approach becoming both phonetic and pictographic rather than purely phonetic. (Which is what has happened with english.) Imagine chinese by contrast, which is a very old language, and is constructed of a myraid of homonyms and complex tones. (languages start with clicks in the ancient past and end with tonal songs in the distant future.) There are only 30K images or words. Not the nearly 1M in english. They speak poetically because they can’t be more precise. It’s an old language but a primitive one. English, the germanic indo european languages in particular, are technical languages. They are the languages of craftsmen and soldiers: meant to convey precision. LANGUAGES CONTAIN METAPHYSICAL JUDGEMENTS Try to speak probabalistically in Spanish. Try to speak factually in polish. Try to eliminate emotional experience from Romanian or italian. Try to convey duty in the Slavics. Languages are more than sounds. They are complex constructs that frame and limit as well as amplify, different social ideas. English is wonderful for insulting someone’s intelligence. Eskimo is wonderful for describing weather. Talk about sex or emotional experience in italian or french. See other languages for what they are: vastly primitive. THE ECONOMICS OF WRITING ARE CHANGING Another argument might be, that we are rapidly approaching a position where reading and writing, which are very abstract very inexpensive forms of illustration, may be irrelevant to more than half of the population: where the future is most likely constructed of pictograms or videograms – moving illustrations that are constructed by and presented by machines. The only reason we use letters rather than images is that they are less expensive to produce. Especially for consonantal languages. However, as languages mature (which they are doing rapidly right now) they become lazy and tonal rather than consonantal. And our current symbolic representations of those languages with consonantal symbols that do NOT convey tones is limiting to representing the tonal. And while the above statement may seem economically impossible, because of the current perception of machines as expensive, we must remember that writing materials were as expensive in the past, during the development of writing, as we consider computers today. Today’s iPad is yesterday’s quill and parchment. LUDDITES ARE EVERYWHERE Effectively the author is promoting a pidgin: a language for simple people to hold simple conversations, rather than a language for conveying complex information. As such, he is, like many others, a Luddite. And luddites are searching for a simpler past rather than a complex, safer, and more prosperous future. And we do not need to dumb down our civilization any further. Even if it does make reading easier. Learning to read a hard language if it conveys greater information increases human capital. 🙂

  • Simplicity Is a Relative Measure, Not A Test Of Truth

    A left-leaning blog-squatter on Economist’s View repeatedly makes requests for simplistic reasoning, thereby making his level of understanding, that by which all rhetoric should be judged: a measure which is obviously arbitrary.

    All expressions are increasingly abstract evolutions of directly experiential concepts, and perceived simplicity in communication is a function of the commonality of experiences shared by the participants. (Hence the still misunderstood nature of evolution as undirected.) Insight just is the opposite – the communication of unseen patterns – or insight would not be a scarcity and therefore of value, or notice. Quantitatively measured categories require presupposed invariance in the category definition (the variables), while the qualitative nature of human choice, the content of human memory from experience which determines the interpretation of ‘facts’, both serve to undermine such analysis. Our native method of calculation is to use effort, property (objects of utility) and time. Numbers simple help us fine tune our perception and measurement. Next, history and it’s data are correlative assumptions without an underlying theory of causality described by human action. Historical correlation of events is simply an updated variation of the will-of-god. Facts are not facts unless they have a theory and correlation is not a theory. Mathematics is not causal, only narratives are causal. Narratives are only causal if they are expressed as a chain of human actions which are testable by the application of behavioral norms and comprehensible incentives. So correlative political statements attributing policy to resulting economic factors are not necessarily causal, especially given the time delay. Furthermore, external factors that are more influential than policy must be included or eliminated lest we attribute cause to symptom. For example, the much repeated error on this board attributing 90’s success to Clintonian policies rather than the lack of those policies interfering in the speculative growth technology, and the fall of the soviet model, and the rise of the chinese model. Politicians have few short term levers. And they are largely punitive (tax and law) or positive (credit) but they have many long term levers Unfortunately our system encourages them to act for the short term, and so does the ideology of class warfare under the rubric of ‘equality’, given the material differences in human capacity for production in a post-agrarian world. So if this is a forum for political advocacy of a position independent of such understandings, then that’s one thing, but as I understand it, it’s a forum for the discussion of economics, which, as a young and not well understood science, is of material consequence, since economic productivity has replaced religion and moral conformity as the means of compelling one group or another to the bidding of the others by the application of the violence of government through physical, tax, or credit (tax) means. In other words, many people are make assumptions in order to support a confirmation bias, and rely upon a requested simplicity where none exists, and if it does exist, it does so by requiring that events, and causes, be perceptible to the individual, when the entire reason we have economies and institutions and habits and quantitative tools is to extend that perception, which is naturally limited to property and perceived utility.

  • Comparing Medical, Technical, Educational, and Political Testing Methodologies

    There was a great deal of research and discourse on technology in medicine when computing systems began to enter the operating room in the 1990’s. In particular, in the use of anesthesia. The most commonly discussed example was a difference in turning knobs, in which one machine turned right to increase and another turned left to increase, and in confusion the patient was killed. This and other events caused a systemic review of medical equipment and the development of standards. THe emphasis in the medical community however, was just as directed at training it’s staff as it was at the hardware. This has not been the case in IT, largely because costs of risk are more easily assumed, and costs of failure are perceived as more tolerable. However, this tolerance is due in large part to a lack of visibility by executive management, to the breadth and impact of those risks, partly because of a lack of understanding of business risk measure by IT management, and in many businesses a failure of IT and Accounting and Finance to share sufficient information for IT to do so. The medical and engineering fields attempt to solve the problem of risk and recovery differently. They do so because of biases. Those biases evolved from the methodology and traditions of the culture of the profession. There is a tendency to think that IT has fully commoditized and therefore can be regulated as is plumbing and electricity, but IT is far closer to medicine in it’s complexity than are the more mechanical traditions. And this confusion, or error in philosophy is common within many different specializations or social groups. From technical specialties to the philosophical biases of entire civilizations. The medical field, especially in surgery and hospital care, includes infinite risk (people die, and there is a high liability cost) and consists of actions are taken by people using tools. This set of properties has made their industry focus on the human element: on improving people, and in particular, on the assumption of failure, therefore improving people. In medical devices, there is an extraordinary emphasis (due to research papers) on producing tools with very consistent user interfaces that are extremely simple and consistent (such as dials turning the same direction producing similar results) and an emphasis on protocol (scripts that are followed), and lastly on training people to use these tools in order to reduce failure. But every process is seen as a human problem of discipline and training. Not of engineering at lower cost, or productivity — but as risk reduction. Production costs are far lower than the costs of failure. This is true for the military as well, where vast numbers of people must work in extraordinarily deadly conditions, under extreme duress and exhaustion, using complex and dangerous tools. Soldiers are taught very simple behaviors, one of which is to speak entirely in facts, rather than interpretations – one of the primary purposes of western basic training. To teach soldiers to separate opinion from recitation of observation. Similarly, when it was found that different hierarchical social structures around the world prohibited airline crews from communicating effectively and was causing deadly crashes, these crews were taught english and declarative mannerisms by training specifically to overcome these cultural biases and lack of clarity in communication –which is why english is the language of transportation. English contains a spoken protocol of clarity which english speakers do not understand, just assume, and that clarity originated in the western military tradition of enfranchising all citizens in a militia. Epistemology. This is a word meaning, in practice, ‘the study of how we know what we know’. Every field has an assumed epistemology. Teaching, Soldiers, Politicians, Engineers, Plumbers, and even psychologists, have a means of understanding causality, and a means of testing themselves. Because each field is limited and includes different kinds of risk and failure, people use different testing criteria for planning and choosing their actions. Teachers for example over rely on written tests rather than question and answer, and therefore test most often for short term memory rather than understanding. This has consequences for all societies, but largely for our political system which relied on rhetorical ability. Protestant churches in the colonial period were effectively debating forums for local social solutions — something that is required of a democratic system. Furthermore, another consequence of teaching methods, that attempts to reduce costs, is that of literally destroying boys minds (physical damage to the brain development) by making them sit for hours a day. (Or by the use of drugs to cause similar brain damage.) This destroys society in doing so, because while girls learn to cooperate through compromise, men learn to cooperate through displays of competition and experimentation with dominance, and if prevented from doing so they will not develop a interest in the real world, fail to take responsibility and have little interest in society. All because of the epistemology of teachers, in an effort to perform ‘efficiently’. (And as fathers they will play world of Warcraft, not because they want to but because during their development they were forcibly harmed by these teachers.) Doctors do not make these kinds of errors. Because the cause and effect of their actions are visible. The cause and effect of political policy, in particular, monetary policy, is likewise opaque, and politicians seek to keep it so. Fire regulations are fascinating, and building codes in particular, because of how few office building fires we have. The cost of construction is heavily influenced by these codes, and has dramatically risen, and both regulations and costs continue to expand despite the fact that they appear no longer to reduce risk. Conversely, firemen still drill and practice on a regular basis which is good, but we still allow tall buildings to be constructed despite the fact that it is dangerous to put many people in a building of more than six stories, that it creates congestion, and in general, research is conclusive, that people don’t like working in them, and that they are unhealthy environments, and heat dissipators and energy consumers. Effective military organizations run drills. Lots of them. The US in particular runs them constantly. Some NATO countries (Hungary) by contrast only allow their soldiers to shoot one to three bullets in all their basic training in order to reduce costs. But in practice, these organizations are symbolic in nature and are incapable of fighting. Partly because fighting in adverse conditions is largely dependent upon the relationships between soldiers built through shared experiences. People are not that smart IN time, but fairly smart OVER time. We can solve problems given time. The only way to reduce the time, which is equivalent to cost, of recovery from failure is to pre-compute, or pre-train people to recover from failure, and in particular in the process of discovering how to recover from failure. If IT management applied the same discipline, they would, once a quarter, create a scenario where three or more elements of their systems failed within a short period, and the staff had to recover from it. This is the approach most military tacticians take to educating their people. There is too often an emphasis on the efficient achievement of goals, rather than on giving people goals and inserting ‘lessons’, or hurdles and obstacles for them to overcome. In IT engineering, risk is rarely stated, because it is rarely visible, despite the catastrophic cost to business. Errors are considered to be functions of the machinery, rather than of the people using and maintaining it. People are considered a cost to be minimized so that more work can be put through them. If a system cannot be assembled and disassembled and tested at every point in the process, then the people cannot understand how to recover it under duress. This mastery by intentional reconstruction is how Formula One racing teams think of the process of engineering. They constantly drill, because of the value of time in racing. IT is this value of time, and its lost productivity cost, that is hidden by IT. furthermore, IT does not report on the problems it solved and the cost of those problems sufficiently to keep management informed and educated on risks. THe converse happens as well, which is that IT is a resistance to change, because the impact of that change is something they don’t understand, because they have spend too little time in drills. Some companies are constantly fighting this battle. Citicorp for example, was a cluster of different banks under one management system and brand name, but not under one infrastructure (I hope I have the bank right here, I am pulling from memory). This meant that in the financial crisis, it was less able to react, because they kept costs down by keeping risk high, by not developing a common infrastructure, both technologically and organizationally. Doctors have extraordinary peer reviews post success and post failure. They spread knowledge by discourse and question and answer. (Part of this is the skill of medical students in analytical thinking and rhetoric versus that of the IT population.) However, the concept of improving people thorough discourse is consistent in their approach. Each patient is a new experiment, having the potential for failure or success and the consequential new learning that comes from either. Retail shops use secret shoppers to test for shoplifting and customer service. The military uses maneuvers, and even uses it’s own members to test it’s own security. IT rarely conducts planned failures. To see how the staff reacts and to educated them. IT does perform upgrades. And for this reason, upgrades and system maintenance are one of the most important means of keeping the staff trained, because they fulfill as similar function to drills and teach the value of redundancy. These assumptions, this epistemology, is different for every little field of specialization. But what happens in each field is that they in turn confuse the methods, practices, tools, means of testing, and general operating philosophy then become assumptions about the nature of the real world, and assumptions about human nature, and even human capability, and in particular human plasticity and adaptability, as well as human learning and understanding. WHen in fact, we must first understand the human animal as the maker and maintainer of complex systems, and that the human animal has very specific properties, none of which are terribly impressive without extraordinary role playing, testing and training in real world (versus written or spoken) conditions, where, they must cooperate toward complex ends, in real time, under conditions of duress. For example, human civilizations are different largely because social orders were initially established by their warriors and their battle tactics. It may seem odd that the east, west, steppe, desert, and mystical civilizations all are caused (Armstrong, Keegan) . It is uncommon that even westerners understand that western battle tactics in europe were heavily based on maneuver (chariots) the required cooperation. Cooperation required political enfranchisement, political enfranchisement led to equality, equality led to debate, debate led to logic, logic led to science and rationalism. This is different from both the tribal raiders, the mystical zoroastrian as well as the chinese familial and hierarchical traditions. An interesting problem for intellectual historians has been why Confucius could not solve the problem of politics and directed the civilization to familial structures instead. Or that the primary difference between east and west is the assumption that our job is to leave the world better than we entered it, that the purpose of man is to transform the word for his utility, that man is the ultimate work of nature, versus the eastern view that our job is to work in harmony with the world, (non-disruption), that humans are somewhat vile by nature, that man is necessarily in class structures, and that truth is less important than the avoidance of conflict (except when it involves barbarians). These differences led to our different concepts of life itself. In IT there is a cultural assumption that the engineers job is to prevent failure, or, to work with the systems without causing additional complexity that increases the probability of failure, or to repair from failure. However, few organizations are structured such that there are drills, and processes by which to recover from failure for the entire purpose of educating the human element in the system. This cultural legacy is largely due to the perceived (although not factual) high cost of IT implementations, largely as a remnant of the fact that during IT’s development, a great deal of research and development, in pursuit of competitive advantage, was conducted in-house, with the resulting failure of research and development programs. In fact, IT infrastructure costs were significantly lower than many previous innovative technologies adapted by business. (In particular, electricity as a replacement for steam or water power.) And by comparison, the calculative burden an uncompetitiveness placed upon companies by antiquated accountancy methods, or government taxation programs, or building codes, are often higher than IT costs. In Europe for example (as well as in California) businesses for small networks, rather than more efficiently combine into larger organizations with lower administrative costs, just to avoid these external expenses. So, this is not only an IT problem, but an executive management problem: the CEO cannot authorize budget for risk mitigation, (nor cover himself by doing so) if the IT management does not understand and quantify the risk, or it’s probability. ( If Executive management does not promote better methods once presented with the information, then the popular revolt is the only real solution (go work somewhere more worthy of your talents that doesn’t reduce it’s cost of doing business by counting on the fact that you’ll live under greater unnecessary stress, and possibly lose sleep and health, or even risk your job, because you were not allowed to engage in preventative activities. Conversely, if you dont provide them with that knowledge, in form and quality at least equal to those provided by sales and accounting organizations then they are not to blame for your inability to do so. They have an epistemology too: which is that they are told many things by many people, and must be able to test these bits of gossip and opinion somehow and only numbers can provide that ability.) IT management has long been criticized for wanting a seat at the table, but not warranting a seat at that table. (Nick Carr) But in general, these people may understand the craft, but often fail to understand the metrics and management of capital in a business, In other words, executives are included for their ability to postulate theories and deliver results. Customer service internally and externally, Risk (Failure Management), Productivity Contribution by the improvement of competitiveness, and Cost OF SErvices, are all criteria by which IT organizations should be measured. From the “ultimate question” for customer service, to cost of service, all of these are measurable. But you cannot judge that service if the management does not adequately measure it, and report on it, so that the executive management of the organization is capable of understanding and making decisions that support IT’s mission. Think of how much information the Accounting (history) and Finance (future) organization gives to the CEO. THink about how much the Sales organization gives to the CEO. THink of how LITTLE marketing organizations tend to give by comparison, and think of how much less than marketing, the IT organization gives. The respect and influence that a function of the company has over the distribution of resources in the company has largely to do with the metrics that it provides the management team. And how much exposure to risk the IT organization inserts into the business by failing to see the management of complex systems as one of engineering rather than one of human development and the testing of humans for failure, and the measurement of humans in their ability to recover from failure. Just as public intellectuals try to change public opinion to influence policy, by the use of narrative and argument, as well as data and it’s interpretation, because they need to help people think differently who have previous intellectual assumptions and biases dependent upon the methods and tools that they use in daily life and then apply outside of that domain of experience, IT management, and to some degree, the staff, must look at the underlying assumptions both in IT and in general business management and develop the discipline internally to experiment with failure, in order to teach the human component of complex systems, how to react in short time periods, while at the same time, using metrics and measures to inform the policy makers in executive management, so that they can intelligently and rationally make decisions about the allocation of resources for the purpose of creating profit (a measure of our use of the world’s resources), and the reduction of risk, so that all members of the organization, who are choosing to invest in this stream of income and friendships and knowledge at this organization, instead of an alternative stream of income, friendships and knowledge at another organization, can reduce the risk and cost to themselves in the event of failure of those estimates of risk. It’s all economics after all.

  • A Note On Argument – A Substitution For Violence

    Paine, We have free speech, logic and rhetoric so that we may make arguments, not a polysyllabic variant of ten year old girls trading insults. I realize that you may resort to these tactics because you are incapable of seeking a truth via argument. I also realize that you post sufficiently in this forum with a small number of other apologists, that you feel justified in your alternate reality, and lack of intellectual rigor. But that does not mean that you are contributing to the dialog, or conducting an argument. Altruism is incalculable (as in unknowable), and does not allow multiple people to cooperate QUANTITATIVELY toward any end requiring risk and action, nor in measuring and understanding outcomes, and it’s result does not produce status differentiation, which is a necessary component of the mating ritual. You are applying the method of the family wherein altruistic actions are perceptible and create an economy of altruistic exchange, rather than the economy wherein such exchanges are imperceptible, and therefore, absent a currency that allows measurement. Calculable ends are not just a matter of preference but of necessity. Status attainment is not just a matter of preference but of necessity. Incentives are not just a matter of preference but of necessity. And the management of the worlds resources in time and space is not a matter of preference but of necessity, since the velocity of that set of exchanges and application in the fulfillment of human needs and wants is just as important as the volume of them. In effect you are simply immature, and are applying the epistemological processes of the family to the extended order of human beings, when numerically, you cannot KNOW about large numbers of people what you can KNOW about a family. Marx was effectively a luddite. And you are as well. We are only similar to one another as farmers and tribal hunter gatherers. But in a vast division of knowledge and labor spread across billions we are increasingly unequal in ability, when ability is judged as the increase in production that decreases prices, and the voluntary coordination of people so that they can act to reduce prices. We can redistribute some of these rewards, as long as the process of doing so is CALCULABLE enough so that status, incentive, and individual calculability are maintained. But we cannot be ‘fair’ as you mean it, because that kind of fairness is not possible to know, comprehend, or calculate. Most often class warriors like yourself simply seek to create a status among their peers by political means that cannot be established by material means. Implicit in your postings (all of them) is a ‘freedom’ that you take for granted, yet do not understand. That is that we grant men free speech, in substitution for withholding our violence, so that we may seek the truth, not simply seek to achieve our ends – violence is a much easier tool for achieving ends. And since a state can only dispense violence — it is its only tool — that violence, and the state, are a continuation of that exchange of violence for seeking truth, not seeking ‘to win’. Therefore if you do not debate rationally, men need not withhold their violence against you. And if they do, they simply allow you to steal from the social order. In other words, if you are not seeking truth and are name calling, then you are both stealing from the public wishing well by which we all pay for the act of free speech so that we may seek truth — not so that we may get what we want. And if it is just to get what we want, then not only can the weak revolt, and return to violence, but so can the strong. Some of us are possessed of petty interpersonal violence, some of us capable of protest and rabblery, some of us capable of slaughter and civil war. That the weak threaten violence is a humor, since the strong are more capable both of its execution, and of paying a minority handsomely to oppress or kill the discontents. You may be one of those people for whom degradation of our ‘group’s’ competitive ability and therefore status and prosperity is acceptable. And if that is the case, then again, you steal from those who seek to perpetuate our advantage and prosperity, by failure to participate in argument. You may be one of those people for whom this is a mask for envy and laziness and simply wants others to take care of you rather than earn for yourself and others. You may be one of those people who is willing to consume cultural capital for current ends, and who is willing to steal from the sacrifices that were made by those generations that came before us. You may be one of those people that thinks, despite the vast ocean of data, that people are infinitely plastic in their behavior, rather than that humans behave in very clear and established manners across all states, nations, civilizations and times, and therefore are a utopian. I don’t know which of these errors you’re making. But I do know that your failure to engage in an argument, is to hide behind an electronic connection as a means of stealing from your fellow man. This may be too subtle for you, but I am casting you as a thief, fool and liar who works against the public good, in order to obtain what you want by deceptive means, rather than what can be obtained by honest voluntary exchange, using the only tools and institutions of cooperation that man has so far invented – those that are calculable, and the institutions that make them so. You are part of the reason democratic capitalism has failed, and why totalitarian capitalism has emerged as the dominant economic force to be employed in the world.

  • is Writing “An Epistemology For The Social Sciences”

    is Writing “An Epistemology For The Social Sciences”


    Source date (UTC): 2009-02-01 21:27:00 UTC