Category: Epistemology and Method

When predicting the future, much like multi-body problems with the extreme example being subatomic waves, you don’t try to distill it, but simply lay out a graph of every cycle you can find enough information to capture and search for convergences. Mostly, it’s demographic. I participated in the Reagan era ‘the state will go under like the soviets’ I understood the future pretty cleary around ’92. I got 2001 right but was surprised by it. By 04 a number of thinkers were seeing the same thing. Immigration was achieving what ideas didn’t:Demographics. —“Revolutions are always suspect in prospect, and deterministic in retrospect”— I haven’t been wrong about any substantial prediction except the Chinese timeline since the early 00’s. Demographics are destiny. We will either separate or war. and we will know who to blame.

When predicting the future, much like multi-body problems with the extreme example being subatomic waves, you don’t try to distill it, but simply lay out a graph of every cycle you can find enough information to capture and search for convergences. Mostly, it’s demographic. I participated in the Reagan era ‘the state will go under like the soviets’ I understood the future pretty cleary around ’92. I got 2001 right but was surprised by it. By 04 a number of thinkers were seeing the same thing. Immigration was achieving what ideas didn’t:Demographics. —“Revolutions are always suspect in prospect, and deterministic in retrospect”— I haven’t been wrong about any substantial prediction except the Chinese timeline since the early 00’s. Demographics are destiny. We will either separate or war. and we will know who to blame.