http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/11/bubbles-bubbles-everywhere/REALLY GOOD BUBBLE CHARTS. FROM THE BANK OF ENGLAND?
(Not Nouriel Roubini?)
Source date (UTC): 2013-11-04 09:27:00 UTC
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/11/bubbles-bubbles-everywhere/REALLY GOOD BUBBLE CHARTS. FROM THE BANK OF ENGLAND?
(Not Nouriel Roubini?)
Source date (UTC): 2013-11-04 09:27:00 UTC
INTERESTING : DAVE RAMSAY ETC : CREDIT AND THE STATE
(personal finance)
Never heard of this guy until recently. But his message is pretty good for average families who get trapped on the credit treadmill.
ON CREDIT
Myself, I don’t use credit cards. If I don’t have cash I don’t buy it. Cars included. I’ll never have another mortgage either, if I can help it. I pay and save first, then the rest of my income is mine to spend as foolishly as I want. I hit my reserves for new investments. Otherwise I live on my income.
Now, my reasons are different: my aspiness is a challenge. Paying bills quarterly works for me. Paying them monthly is just not something I’ll remember to do. And I only take on bills that can be paid by debit card, over the phone or via email. I don’t like the stress of fighting my subconscious so I don’t get on the TREADMILL of credit. EVER. (Well, I did impulsively buy my Jaguar XJR on credit, but it was a steal. But for the exotics, and all others, I paid cash.)
Most of my income volatility in life is driven by business investments which usually require extraordinary income sacrifice (at least for me they have.)
And I’ve carried from 4M to 20M in commercial credit for most of my adult life. (Which I find humorous for some reason.)
ON WOMEN:
There are a lot of women who get their happiness from nesting. And they make a wonderful nest. But the problem is that you can’t lower their standard of living if you want to take a business risk. So my advice is to make sure that you know what partner you’re buying into. Those women are usually a pleasure to live with. But they are hard to build financial wealth with.
ON THE STATE:
Taxes and Credit are the fuel of the state. The libertarian in me seeks to starve the state wherever possible.
SO I’M ALL FOR THE DAVE RAMSEY and VOLITIONAL movements. 🙂 Mostly as a rebellion against the state. 🙂
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-29 06:44:00 UTC
Interesting how the MORAL people who CHOOSE to sacrifice something ELSE in order to have health care, are now paying for the IMMORAL PEOPLE who CHOSE something OTHER than health care.
It is not that health care is ‘unaffordable’. It’s that health care is something you would prefer to spend your marginal income on LESS than whatever you spend it on, such as your own apartment, your car, your entertainment. etc.
I won’t go into all the incentives here, but if you made a law that you had to have health care or you couldn’t drive, couldn’t vote, couldn’t collect social security or anything else for that matter – and that you had to ‘earn’ your redistribution by ‘beautifying the country’ (cleaning it up and maintaining the commons) then that would make perfect sense to me.
But everything we do in the statist empire is to create every immoral malincentive possible to encourage the free-riding that the west worked so hard to stamp out.
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-28 11:24:00 UTC
Um. No.
EcoNOMICS is CAUSATION.
EconoMETRICS is CORRELATION.
Big… Really Big. Difference. OK?
You perform RESEARCH with Econometrics so that you can identify and test the INCENTIVES, using PRAXEOLOGY, of individuals who must perform the ACTIONS required to create causal relationships between states. Those tested incentives and their corresponding actions constitute the CAUSATION necessary to determine that you have indeed identified that thing we call ‘Economics’ – instead of some sort of chaotic periodicity without meaning.
Please. We get really tired of correcting you. It’s … painful.
Correlation is a form of obfuscation. If you cannot reduce an economic phenomenon to actions subject to praxeological testing, then you have not yet determined anything.
(SIgh)
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-25 15:41:00 UTC
MAXIMUM TAXATION?
Taxation is by definition immoral. Whereas fees are not. We issue taxes even in local villages, largely to prevent free riding. We issue taxes under statism for the purpose of empowering the state. And little else.
The maximum taxation possible is that which maintains the ability of exit from the market and the total reliance on past earnings as a means of maintaining one’s standard of living. If this lottery is removed it will decrease participation in experimentation that is only evident over a decade or more.
Subtract from this the willingness of people to subsidize that which they disagree with.
Subtract from this the impact that taxation places on their status signaling ability.
Subtract from this the trust that their sacrifice is well used by government.
Subtract from this their current level of economic confidence in the long term.
That’s pretty much it. Math is pretty easy really.
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-24 10:40:00 UTC
PROPERTARIANISM : UNITING HOPPE AND HAYEK
“Hayek’s work composes a system of ideas, fully as ambitious as the systems of Mill and Marx, but far less vulnerable to criticism than theirs because it is grounded on a philosophically defensible view of the scope and limits of human reason. “
–John N. Gray, in Hayek on Liberty (1984), Preface, p. ix
COMMENT
I originally thought I was trying to reconcile Hayek and Mises — at least, that’s what I remember saying to Walter Block — but really, it turns out, that it’s Mises (calculation), Hoppe (institutions), Rothbard (property as calculation) and Hayek (limits of reason) that needed uniting.
If you stop for a moment, long enough to grasp that we do not need to JUSTIFY libertarianism (philosophy) as much as simply UNDERSTAND human moral behavior (science), then the question is not what we should choose to believe or prefer to believe, but only what institutions compensate for the deficiencies in our ability to cooperate because of fragmentary knowledge, AND cognitive and moral biases. The result is a libertarian bias in the formation all institutions.
The problem is not ‘what we should do’ but ‘what can we not do’ without institutions to assist us in cooperating where we cannot cooperate without them. Where cooperation means to cooperate with people we do not and cannot know on means of achieving multiplicative ends, many of which are in conflict, and all of which represent our individual reproductive strategies.
It’s common for us to discuss Capital in all its forms: Financial, Physical, Institutional, Human and Social.
But, I don’t like the term ‘social capital’ for a lot of reasons. Not the least of which is that the term ‘social’ is heavily loaded. But most importantly, because for the female, collectively-biased mind, ‘social’ implies ‘agreement and consent’.
Whereas, my preferred term, “informal institutions” consisting of manners, ethics, morals, habits, traditions, rituals, myths, metaphysical biases, is a largely involuntary, non-consensual, habituated rules, reduced to intuitions, many of which we may not even be aware of – and most which we cannot distinguish from biological and genetic instinct.
It’s common for us to discuss Capital in all its forms:
1) Human Capital,
2) Informal Institutional Capital,
3) Intellectual Capital,
4) Formal institutional Capital,
5) Physical Capital,
6) Financial Capital,
7) Geographic Capital.
And to do so in that order, as a sequence from the human being, to physical space, and each dependent upon its priors.
A SYSTEM OF IDEAS
Extending property to the full suite of categories which human beings demonstrate that they treat as property, we are able to reconcile the Austro-libertarian program and rescue it from its past errors. We can take calculation and praxeology from mises, and complete praxeology as a biologically based science of incentives, remove deduction from it, but retain praxeology’s ability to test any incentive given the similarity of our sensitivity to incentives. We can take Hayek and show that he simply did not make the connection between the various categories of property and his insights into the limits of information and knowledge.
We are able to reduce to very compact form, the theory of human cooperation, as non-arbitrary, entirely rational pursuit of our reproductive strategy in whatever organization we are members of.
COMPACTLY STATED
To unite these thinkers into ratio-scientific form requires only the following limited steps:
0) Start with private property, and voluntary exchange
1) Add remaining categories of property
2) Add ethical requirement for symmetry and warranty
3) Add ethical requirement against transfer by externality
4) Add ethical requirement for operational language
5) Add ethical requirement for ‘calculability’ (retention of relation)
6) Add institutional government by contract not law.
The rest is a set of tactics that require only different levels of technology to achieve the same result.
THE REASON FOR MORAL DIVERSITY IS THE EXPRESSION OF REPRODUCTIVE INDIVIDUALISM UNDER POST INDUSTRIALISM’S WEALTH
People pursue their economic and reproductive interests, but only as long as there is an incentive and a means to do so. We are not equal in our reproductive value – which is obvious. Just as we are not equal in our economic value – value to each other.
The diversity of moral biases increases with the diversity of the reproductive structure. If we all exist in nuclear families in one group, and all exist in tribes in another, then the moral code that he nuclear families operate between all members of all groups, will differ from the bifurcated morally of the tribal group. Because the tribal group treats all non-family as another ‘state’ just as the nuclear families treat all individuals as belonging to their family. This creates an asymmetry of morals, since at all times, both sides attempt to keep all rewards in their families. Except that the nuclear family system keeps rewards universally, and the tribal family does not. As such the nuclear family is easy prey to the immorality of the tribal family.
Furthermore, under matrilinealism, women trade sex and affection for calories, where as under paternalism men trade calories and security for sex and care-taking using property. In each system there is a bias in reproductive control for each gender.
Under the nuclear, traditional, and extended families, our reproductive male and female strategies are politically homogenized since what is politically good for one is good for the other. But under the dissolution of the family into single parenthood, and roaming males, reproductive interests are polarized between each group.
And that is what we see in modern democracy, with the only difference that military prowess (power) gives nations a more masculine character, and lack of it gives nations are more feminine character.
SCOPE AND SIMPLICITY
As I write this I’m reminded that it does take an entire book to cover an ethical topic of this breadth. But comforted slightly that once the breadth is understood as a system, it is possible to reduce it to a compact set of rules or laws, and therefore, both fitting the criteria of explanatory power, and the requirement that society consist of very simple, basic rules, comprehensible to anyone.
And since propertarianism is the codification of instinctual biology in verbal form using property as the means of commensurability, then it is both possible for humans to universally sense, perceive, and comprehend those simple basic additions – additions which in effect, ask us to extend and warrantee all exchanges, verbal and material, to all human beings, as if they were members of our traditional family.
And as such, create a family in practice despite what are a multitude of families with different preferences, needs, means and ends.
Cheers
Curt Doolittle
The Propertarian Institute
Kiev 2013
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-23 05:28:00 UTC
HAYEK : PROFIT IS INFORMATION
“By pursuing profit, we are as altruistic as we can possibly be. Profit is the signal which tells us what we must do to serve people whom we do not know.” ~ F. A. Hayek
“…civilization begins when the individual in the pursuit of his ends can make use of more knowledge than he has himself acquired, and when he can transcend the boundaries of his ignorance, by profiting from knowledge he does not himself possess.” ~ F. A. Hayek
(reminder from a friend)
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-23 03:37:00 UTC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzmxQOonnGEHOW TO FIGHT POVERTY? CAPITALISM.
Halving destitute poverty by getting government out of the way.
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-22 16:01:00 UTC
“…. the last time the female labor force participation rate dropped as low as 57.1 percent was in February 1989—24 years ago…..”
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-22 13:55:00 UTC
CONFIGURING PRODUCTION
“Entrepreneurs, through a process of trial and error, figure out how best to configure production. In this process of ongoing discovery, there can be periods in which workers are unemployed, while the market mechanism tries to figure out how to utilize them.” — Arnold Kling.
I’ve been a supporter of Kling’s argument since he first started talking about it. But in our intellectual climate, an explanation must be reduced to some sort of model so that we are sure that the various causal axis are related in the way that we assume and intuit that they are.
As yet I haven’t seen such a model, or comparison with that model against data. This deconstruction, which involves painfully detailed research, was one of the many ideas that convinced greenspan of the virtue of the entrepreneurial coordination of production amidst fragmentary knowledge by studying the cotton trade.
I feel, that in my work, I am trying to express his argument for PSST in operational language of incentives using propertarian terminology.
(And I’m using PSST in a post that should come out later today.)
https://www.facebook.com/arnold.kling?
Source date (UTC): 2013-10-21 05:18:00 UTC