Curt Doolittle

Category: Economics, Finance, and Political Economy

  • COMING CORRECTIONS, SHIFTS, AND SHOCKS There are corrections, shifts, and shocks

    COMING CORRECTIONS, SHIFTS, AND SHOCKS

    There are corrections, shifts, and shocks to choose from. A correction involves the overinvestment in an opportunity the value of which has peaked. A shift is a change in strategy, demographics, trade routes, or power structures that significantly disrupts the existing sustainable patterns of specialization and trade. A shock is a rapid and unexpected alteration in supply or demand, for which insufficient substitutes are available in the market, or which cause redirection of investments from opportunity, to maintenance, to defense, or to rescue.

    Corrections (business cycles), shifts (demographic cycles), and shocks (natural world, political world, vicissitudes and cycles ) are all, to some degree predictable existentially. Business cycles are historically testable, so are shifts, and so are shocks. But on time scales we cannot ‘time’. Yet all of us seek to maximize returns through ‘timing’. For reasons that it would take a book to cover.

    It certainly appears that we will see a coincidence of correction, shift and shock all at the same time on a global scale, which will likely be exacerbated by seizure of political and military and trade route opportunities given the invasion of advanced civilizations by vast underclasses. I have been predicting this to occur between 2020-2025 since 2004. I was right on timing of everything except china – but everyone else has been wrong on china too. The information is just to crappy to work from. So much so that I stopped following.

    The underlying cause of all economic and political and strategic change is demographic. Ergo, by 2025 a dramatic demographic shift will occur that will likely result in another world war of the military, political economic labor, class variety – or all of the above combined – unless we are very, very lucky. History is not friendly to such coincidences of cycles.

    I would say that the best thing to do is limit one’s ‘enforceable’ debt. That might include just limiting your debts and costs. That might include maximizing all bank debt and maximizing all physical property and stores. It might include just staying fit and armed. But I don’t think there is much defense from a coincidence of cycles of this magnitude other than home, family, and friends.

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-30 11:34:00 UTC

  • PENDER STRIKES INTERGENERATIONAL GOLD —“Would it be good policy, to provide fo

    PENDER STRIKES INTERGENERATIONAL GOLD

    —“Would it be good policy, to provide for parental retirement savings account accessible only after 70, to garnish 2% of the income of only one’s *own* children after they turn 22? This would align the incentives of parents with their kids to keep them debt-free in their youth, with the lowest cost of living with the highest income… and probably encourage looking into alternatives to $$$ college that increasingly has low ROI other than STEM majors.”—Steve Pender

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-30 09:09:00 UTC

  • NO IT’S NOT SOCIALISM IT”S BANKING AND INVESTING ON A NATIONAL SCALE –“What if

    NO IT’S NOT SOCIALISM IT”S BANKING AND INVESTING ON A NATIONAL SCALE

    –“What if I told you that any government ownership of industry is socialism?’— (a well meaning fool)

    That is not true. Any government ownership is separate from government management. Any management at cost (loss), at non-profit, and for profit determines returns for shareholders. The empirical evidence is that government investment in research and development, and in serving as financier and insurer of last resort has be disproportionately beneficial for peoples. We might argue instead that it is *necessary*. The only question is whether the government forces a monopoly or partial monopoly in favor of such an industry, and whether the management operates at a loss, at non-profit, or for profit. And whether those profits are distributed to employees, managers, or owners (citizens). In fact, we should, as citizens, ask why the majority of investment returns are not returned to the commons (government) for use by the citizenry when government (citizens) provide funding and insurance of last resort. In other words, the financial sector as it is structured today other than as early stage investors, appears to be parasitic upon those institutions (industries) for which the government serves as both financier and insurer of last resort.

    The question is whether government manages (bad) or not. Not whether government invests or not.

    Curt Doolittle

    The Propertarian Institute

    Kiev, Ukraine.

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-28 11:59:00 UTC

  • THE COMING REGULATION OF FB/GOOGLE (And the Media) —“Can you share your though

    THE COMING REGULATION OF FB/GOOGLE (And the Media)

    —“Can you share your thoughts on ”anti-competitive” behaviour of dominant companies? If you have already shared your views on the subject will appreciate a link to your post on the subject . Thanks”— Rakesh Sahgal

    —“So why should we regulate these successful giants?”—Corey Harms

    Search (google), Converse (facebook), Acquire (Amazon), Dispute (Court), Repair (healthcare). What’s Missing? (a) finance/credit/banking, and (b) organization of production.

    In other words, aside from family(sex), invention, financing, and production – all of which require secrecy in the seizure of opportunities, and preservation of the markets, there is no reason why google, facebook, amazon/ups, are not utilities the same way that courts, energy/water/sewer/transportation/telecommunications, healthcare are utilities.

    Why? The problem is that advertising provides the same malincentives (corruption) that using representatives (politicians) provides. And the total spending on advertising in google, facebook, is trivial compared to their asset value as communication platforms. I mean, the cost of operating google and facebook outside of their playtoy (repeated failures) experiments on the shareholder dollar, is trivial.

    Advertising has value (well, truthful advertising does). However, the modification of search results and the modification of facebook content constitutes ‘disinformation’ (deception). And the suppression of free speech on the platforms to provide advertisers with more surface area for advertizing is again, a form of deception.

    As such the problem is eliminating the ability of ‘utilities’ to engage in revenue expansion by means of exploiting users rather than merely requiring advertisers to improve their products, services, and messaging.

    In other words, they need to favor the maximum truth regardless of profits, rather than the minimum truth necessary to maximize profits: they need to be regulated. And they need only be regulated to non-interference (non-aggression).

    As I’ve written about lately in my call for Facebook to be regulated, there is no reason (at all) why facebook cannot allow us to op-into socially taboo subjects and eliminate our ability to opt-into illegal subjects. The problem is that it would provide a degree of precision that advertisers would use to demand lower fees.

    So as far as I know, the future looks to me like there are a lot more public utilities. And I have my target on a lot of companies providing information and credit that need to be raised to the same standard as those companies that provide products and services.

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-28 10:45:00 UTC

  • We are in the early phases of seeing Google, Facebook, Amazon transition into ut

    We are in the early phases of seeing Google, Facebook, Amazon transition into utilities that will be as regulated as any other, and in ways microsoft avoided but they will not. Even if it is microsoft that has been far more evil by intent than Google and Amazon. I still consider FB pretty borderline anti-western.

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-27 22:36:00 UTC

  • “Another financial crisis not likely in our lifetime.”– Janet Yellen. You mean

    –“Another financial crisis not likely in our lifetime.”– Janet Yellen.

    You mean another BANKING crisis not likely in our lifetime. I think we’re all pretty confident that the ponzi scheme of western fiat currencies is going to collapse in our lifetime. In fact, shortly.

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-27 17:30:00 UTC

  • BANKING IN UKRAINE Ukrsibbank is French. Weak customer service. (popular but a b

    BANKING IN UKRAINE

    Ukrsibbank is French. Weak customer service. (popular but a bit backward). Raiffeisen Bank is Austrian. Most trustworthy. Alpha Bank is Greek. (well run). Good customer service. PrivatBank is very consumer-friendly, why? It was nationalized in 2016 because (((Igor Kolomoyski))) an israeli-ukrainian had stolen $6B from the people of ukraine by accepting deposits then distributing 97% of its corporate loans to companies linked to its 21 shareholders. In other words, (((kolomoyski))) achieved in Ukraine (a very poor country) what (((Bernie Madoff))) and Robert Allen Stanford achieved in the US financial sector, and what (((Eddie Antar))) achieved with in the USA in the consumer electronics sector: an exceptional pyramid scheme.

    Now, it’s not like here. There are no ‘checks’. You pay your bills by going to the bank, and giving them cash, and they pay your bills for you. If you want to pay your cell phone or rent or utility bill you do the same. It’s a cash economy. For this reason, the vast majority of the economy is ‘black’: almost impossible to tax.

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-27 10:37:00 UTC

  • That we need markets so that we can cooperate on means if not ends, and that we

    That we need markets so that we can cooperate on means if not ends, and that we need markets for commons so we can produce commons necessary for the differences in our distributions is hard to argue with.

    The question is whether we need variation in the law by which we reconcile disputes, and whether we need variation in truth vs falsehoods. While it is possible to speak truthfully in most modern languages with some effort, it is not clear that cooperation is possible between the more truthful and higher trust polity, and the less truthful and lower trust polity. Or between polities that are both low trust and both high in falsehoods but that are incompatible because those differences are irreconcilable.

    All humans can cooperate perfectly under aristotelian (testimonial) truth, perfect reciprocity, and markets of voluntary cooperation. But this means that those of the best genetic ability will eventually replace those that are less so. So there is group evolutionary advantage to hostility, differences, uncooperativeness, falsehood, and deceits.

    Which is what we see…

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-27 07:31:00 UTC

  • As luxury (wealth) increases people can increase radius of externalities that th

    As luxury (wealth) increases people can increase radius of externalities that they consider. This is why nations do not worry about pollution until they have to, and once they have to they turn it into a virtue. In the west we are so deep in luxury our primary trade is in virtue signals – the most egregious demonstration of conspicuous consumption. Conspicuous altruism is conspicuous consumption – usually wherever other pay the cost of their altruism.

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-24 17:53:00 UTC

  • ( F–king republicans and their ‘tax credit’ nonsense….. Three tiers: fast fan

    ( F–king republicans and their ‘tax credit’ nonsense….. Three tiers: fast fancy service for those of us with cash, fast less fancy service for those with private health care, and slower much less fancy care for medicare medicaid. Why? Pay for time and customer service not medical care. Wealthy people pay exorbitantly for concierge service and extending the last year of life, private pay for customer service, and public don’t – because of europe-like delays. )

    Source date (UTC): 2017-06-23 07:55:00 UTC