COMING CORRECTIONS, SHIFTS, AND SHOCKS There are corrections, shifts, and shocks

COMING CORRECTIONS, SHIFTS, AND SHOCKS

There are corrections, shifts, and shocks to choose from. A correction involves the overinvestment in an opportunity the value of which has peaked. A shift is a change in strategy, demographics, trade routes, or power structures that significantly disrupts the existing sustainable patterns of specialization and trade. A shock is a rapid and unexpected alteration in supply or demand, for which insufficient substitutes are available in the market, or which cause redirection of investments from opportunity, to maintenance, to defense, or to rescue.

Corrections (business cycles), shifts (demographic cycles), and shocks (natural world, political world, vicissitudes and cycles ) are all, to some degree predictable existentially. Business cycles are historically testable, so are shifts, and so are shocks. But on time scales we cannot ‘time’. Yet all of us seek to maximize returns through ‘timing’. For reasons that it would take a book to cover.

It certainly appears that we will see a coincidence of correction, shift and shock all at the same time on a global scale, which will likely be exacerbated by seizure of political and military and trade route opportunities given the invasion of advanced civilizations by vast underclasses. I have been predicting this to occur between 2020-2025 since 2004. I was right on timing of everything except china – but everyone else has been wrong on china too. The information is just to crappy to work from. So much so that I stopped following.

The underlying cause of all economic and political and strategic change is demographic. Ergo, by 2025 a dramatic demographic shift will occur that will likely result in another world war of the military, political economic labor, class variety – or all of the above combined – unless we are very, very lucky. History is not friendly to such coincidences of cycles.

I would say that the best thing to do is limit one’s ‘enforceable’ debt. That might include just limiting your debts and costs. That might include maximizing all bank debt and maximizing all physical property and stores. It might include just staying fit and armed. But I don’t think there is much defense from a coincidence of cycles of this magnitude other than home, family, and friends.