Curt Doolittle

Category: Economics, Finance, and Political Economy

  • Understanding the Services Sector Problem

    Mar 18, 2020, 11:11 AM There are no multipliers to services jobs – they are categorically consumptions. Services jobs are only possible because of productive jobs. In that sense services are part of the hyper-consumptive economy. They are a measure of your hyperconsumption. But something must make hyper-consumption possible: something with multipliers.

    Multiplier: a phenomenon whereby a given change in a particular input, causes a larger change in an output. Productivity: the effectiveness of productive effort, especially in industry, as measured in terms of the rate of output per unit of input (time). These terms are relative synonyms, and multiplier usually refers to government returns on investment, and productivity to commercial returns on investment. instead of government vs private sector, I tend to use these terms to emphasize why (multiplier) or how (productivity). Services: a term that refers to the production of intangibles. So goods (products) vs services (actions) vs information (knowledge). However some services are defensive (emergency services, health care), some are productive (financial services, legal services), and some are consumptive (waiter, waitress, entertainer, travel and leisure.)

  • Piracy Is Going to Have a Few Decades of Luxurious Opportunity

    Piracy Is Going to Have a Few Decades of Luxurious Opportunity. https://propertarianism.com/2020/05/28/piracy-is-going-to-have-a-few-decades-of-luxurious-opportunity/

    Source date (UTC): 2020-05-28 21:25:16 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1266118366969974785

  • Piracy Is Going to Have a Few Decades of Luxurious Opportunity.

    Mar 18, 2020, 6:08 PM Kash Vikaas Nothing particularly interesting. (a) national security. china and russia are highly vulnerable to participation in the dollar-financial system. Look what the USA has done to russia since 2014’s invasion of ukraine. And look what china is afraid of today. I mean, we can rebuild anything they’re producing in a year or two. They can’t rebuild our buying from them. (b) everyone is going to do something like this because few countries outside the anglosphere can tolerate american ownership of both the seas, the air, and the financial system. (c) China is 13% of russia’s trade. Germany and Netherlands a lot of the rest of it. All other trading partners are small. They have to carry MULTIPLE CURRENCIES under this scheme, unless they have a clearing house for currencies. They area apparently building one but I don’t yet see the details. If they can clear one another’s currencies at a market rate (god knows how its calculated) then that will work for everyone. (d) russia makes much cheaper territorial arms than we do and arguably better for the eurasians. Between chinese and russians other countries will prefer russian or chinese arms. Russians are trustworthy arms dealers. Chinese are suspect. (e) like i’ve been saying for years now, the usa finances our wars and our spending which buys americans goods on the cheap. Europe’s euro project, iran’s bourse project, all these countries are capitalizing on the end of american influence in the world – influence that we cannot maintain. (f) gradually taking away our dollar is fine but my understanding is that the world is totally fucked without the USA running global defense and trade, and that the numbers don’t add up if anyone tries to replace it. So, as soon as the USA stops being global police then the USA starts being a friend to the people who are friends in fact, and the postwar era is over. Or put another way, piracy is going to have a few decades of luxurious opportunity.

  • Piracy Is Going to Have a Few Decades of Luxurious Opportunity.

    Mar 18, 2020, 6:08 PM Kash Vikaas Nothing particularly interesting. (a) national security. china and russia are highly vulnerable to participation in the dollar-financial system. Look what the USA has done to russia since 2014’s invasion of ukraine. And look what china is afraid of today. I mean, we can rebuild anything they’re producing in a year or two. They can’t rebuild our buying from them. (b) everyone is going to do something like this because few countries outside the anglosphere can tolerate american ownership of both the seas, the air, and the financial system. (c) China is 13% of russia’s trade. Germany and Netherlands a lot of the rest of it. All other trading partners are small. They have to carry MULTIPLE CURRENCIES under this scheme, unless they have a clearing house for currencies. They area apparently building one but I don’t yet see the details. If they can clear one another’s currencies at a market rate (god knows how its calculated) then that will work for everyone. (d) russia makes much cheaper territorial arms than we do and arguably better for the eurasians. Between chinese and russians other countries will prefer russian or chinese arms. Russians are trustworthy arms dealers. Chinese are suspect. (e) like i’ve been saying for years now, the usa finances our wars and our spending which buys americans goods on the cheap. Europe’s euro project, iran’s bourse project, all these countries are capitalizing on the end of american influence in the world – influence that we cannot maintain. (f) gradually taking away our dollar is fine but my understanding is that the world is totally fucked without the USA running global defense and trade, and that the numbers don’t add up if anyone tries to replace it. So, as soon as the USA stops being global police then the USA starts being a friend to the people who are friends in fact, and the postwar era is over. Or put another way, piracy is going to have a few decades of luxurious opportunity.

  • Use Stimulus by Rate of Response and Effect

    Use Stimulus by Rate of Response and Effect https://propertarianism.com/2020/05/28/use-stimulus-by-rate-of-response-and-effect/

    Source date (UTC): 2020-05-28 21:23:42 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1266117969945468929

  • Use Stimulus by Rate of Response and Effect

    Mar 18, 2020, 9:04 PM There’s never been a worse time for fiscal stimulus – Econlib econlib.org

    There’s never been a worse time for fiscal stimulus
    STIMULUS BY RATE OF RESPONSE AND EFFECT MONETARY stimulus refers to lowering interest rates, quantitative easing, or other ways of increasing the amount of money or credit. DIRECT stimulus (my term) refers to direct distribution of cash to consumers who can then alter the structure of production with collective (‘state’,’environmental’) indirect debt rather than individual, family, business and industry debt. this is the ONLY method of preventing exaggerated worldwide demand, network, and price recalculation, in the face of ignorance. Giving consumers liquidity removes IGNORANCE (uncertainty) while the economy changes. It is ignorance, uncertainty, and recalculation by trial and error under duress that causes undesirable economic contractions rather than desirable economic adaptations. DEBT NATIONALIZATION (my term) refers to paying down consumer credit all mortgages and granting credit to those with paid or substantially paid mortgages. RESCUE INVESTMENT (my term) – Providing loans directly to business industry in response to shocks, so that they can survive or even motball during recessions. NATIONALIZATION refers to the state taking over the ownership of a STRATEGIC industry, providing necessary cash reserves and cash-flow while the necessary organization adapts to shocks (temporary) or change (permanent). However, investors must be zeroed during this time and may only buy back their interest for having failed to preserve enough liquidity to insure against shocks. In this case the state buys the company for nothing, and resells it. FISCAL stimulus refers to increasing government consumption or transfers or lowering taxes. Effectively this means increasing the rate of growth of public debt, except that particularly Keynesians often assume that the stimulus will cause sufficient economic growth to fill that gap partially or completely. See multiplier (economics).

  • Use Stimulus by Rate of Response and Effect

    Mar 18, 2020, 9:04 PM There’s never been a worse time for fiscal stimulus – Econlib econlib.org

    There’s never been a worse time for fiscal stimulus
    STIMULUS BY RATE OF RESPONSE AND EFFECT MONETARY stimulus refers to lowering interest rates, quantitative easing, or other ways of increasing the amount of money or credit. DIRECT stimulus (my term) refers to direct distribution of cash to consumers who can then alter the structure of production with collective (‘state’,’environmental’) indirect debt rather than individual, family, business and industry debt. this is the ONLY method of preventing exaggerated worldwide demand, network, and price recalculation, in the face of ignorance. Giving consumers liquidity removes IGNORANCE (uncertainty) while the economy changes. It is ignorance, uncertainty, and recalculation by trial and error under duress that causes undesirable economic contractions rather than desirable economic adaptations. DEBT NATIONALIZATION (my term) refers to paying down consumer credit all mortgages and granting credit to those with paid or substantially paid mortgages. RESCUE INVESTMENT (my term) – Providing loans directly to business industry in response to shocks, so that they can survive or even motball during recessions. NATIONALIZATION refers to the state taking over the ownership of a STRATEGIC industry, providing necessary cash reserves and cash-flow while the necessary organization adapts to shocks (temporary) or change (permanent). However, investors must be zeroed during this time and may only buy back their interest for having failed to preserve enough liquidity to insure against shocks. In this case the state buys the company for nothing, and resells it. FISCAL stimulus refers to increasing government consumption or transfers or lowering taxes. Effectively this means increasing the rate of growth of public debt, except that particularly Keynesians often assume that the stimulus will cause sufficient economic growth to fill that gap partially or completely. See multiplier (economics).

  • I’m Gonna Get My Revolution? Goldman: -24% Gdp

    I’m Gonna Get My Revolution? Goldman: -24% Gdp. https://propertarianism.com/2020/05/28/im-gonna-get-my-revolution-goldman-24-gdp/

    Source date (UTC): 2020-05-28 20:51:03 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1266109757154304001

  • I’m Gonna Get My Revolution? Goldman: -24% Gdp.

    Mar 20, 2020, 11:49 AM Goldman Sachs has a devastating revision for its GDP growth predictions theweek.com Clockwork. If you understand cycles… Anyway. The chief contribution of the postwar german austrians was the business cycle. ’08 ended the debate. Austrians are fully integrated into mainstream economic theory. No, I didn’t predict that the clock would strike midnight because of a virus. I predicted it would be a normal cycle collapse. I wish I had my diagrams from 2004. They were in red pen on copy paper. I hung them on the wall behind my desk. Learn generational cycles. Learn Demographics. Learn class and cultural differences. Learn technological cycles. Learn business cycles. Learn Hayekian Triangles. Learn enough different industries so that you understand their means of production. There is as much denial of human differences in politics as there is in education – but human differences eventually express in economics politics culture and civilizational ascent or decline. I built and ran consulting companies. Consulting companies are intelligence organizations. When you know a company’s technology you know how to OPERATIONALIZE that business. you learn a hundred businesses a year or more. I have been operationalizing businesses since I walked out of college. And I wrote simulation games and AI in my spare time, and studied economics. The patterns are always the same. You can play the market and profit from asymmetric information amongst noise or you can ignore the market and watch the economy and the polity and the culture – BECAUSE YOU ARE MEASURING CAPITAL not income. And that is what I do differently from other economists. I only look at changes in the balance sheet, and income is just noise. If we get anywhere near the -20% we will have our revolution. LIKE CLOCKWORK.

  • I’m Gonna Get My Revolution? Goldman: -24% Gdp.

    Mar 20, 2020, 11:49 AM Goldman Sachs has a devastating revision for its GDP growth predictions theweek.com Clockwork. If you understand cycles… Anyway. The chief contribution of the postwar german austrians was the business cycle. ’08 ended the debate. Austrians are fully integrated into mainstream economic theory. No, I didn’t predict that the clock would strike midnight because of a virus. I predicted it would be a normal cycle collapse. I wish I had my diagrams from 2004. They were in red pen on copy paper. I hung them on the wall behind my desk. Learn generational cycles. Learn Demographics. Learn class and cultural differences. Learn technological cycles. Learn business cycles. Learn Hayekian Triangles. Learn enough different industries so that you understand their means of production. There is as much denial of human differences in politics as there is in education – but human differences eventually express in economics politics culture and civilizational ascent or decline. I built and ran consulting companies. Consulting companies are intelligence organizations. When you know a company’s technology you know how to OPERATIONALIZE that business. you learn a hundred businesses a year or more. I have been operationalizing businesses since I walked out of college. And I wrote simulation games and AI in my spare time, and studied economics. The patterns are always the same. You can play the market and profit from asymmetric information amongst noise or you can ignore the market and watch the economy and the polity and the culture – BECAUSE YOU ARE MEASURING CAPITAL not income. And that is what I do differently from other economists. I only look at changes in the balance sheet, and income is just noise. If we get anywhere near the -20% we will have our revolution. LIKE CLOCKWORK.