Category: Commentary, Critique, and Response

RT @WalterIII: Back by popular demand:

~~”Q: Curt: How much can we trust mainstream analysis by people like Peter Zeihan?”~~

@PeterZeihan has BECOME the mainstream voice because he’s been insightful and an excellent communicator – but he was not originally so mainstream and neither was Stratfor, where he worked before he spun off on his own. I’ve asked him, and he’s said he’s as surprised as the rest of us that he’s become so influential. 😉

Zeihan’s method is pretty difficult to challenge over the long run, because he has so much data and so much history to work from and the macro effect of the combination of US strategic withdrawal, demographic collapse, and Chinese suicidal destruction of the world order of prosperity the US created makes a future that is ‘different’ more predictable because we understand ‘going backward’ than a future where we can’t yet imagine going forward. Who would have thought social media, dating sites, sex-related sites, tik-tok, and Instagram would be this destructive? Or that women would be so destructive when using it?

However, the future is kaleidic, and personalities in power are often unpredictable. And the only weakness, if you want to call it a weakness, in Peter’s predictions is that it’s terribly difficult to predict outlying events (Black swans). I mean who would have thought that Chairman Xi would be the cause of world systemic economic collapse? What kind of idiot would do that in a futile attempt to become a world power, and especially with so vast a number of poor and without first escaping the middle-income trap? Seriously.

Reply addressees: @OtonielFilho5

For art history and theory, for brand development in commercial art and design, maybe for writing grand literature – then it has a minor value. But it is one of the continental philosophy tidbits that quickly devolves int reading tea leaves: nonsense.

Both problems are easily solved. Everyone is too distracted with other threats to do so.

I love to serve. 😉

(Correct)

Yes. Though that’s easily accomplished. SH requires optimism while the alternative is the same message as demontrable engineering.