Author: Curt Doolittle

  • Q: CURT: WILL THE PUBLIC STOCK MARKET STILL EXIST IN THE COMING DECADES? Yes for

    Q: CURT: WILL THE PUBLIC STOCK MARKET STILL EXIST IN THE COMING DECADES?
    Yes for reasons too many to list. However it will change as it has continued to change throughout our history:
    1) We are exiting the period of boomer capital oversupply and entering a post-boomer period of capital undersupply.
    2) At the same time we are losing comparative advantage in IQ, Technology, Institutions, Economic Scale, Geostrategic influence, and political legitimacy.
    3) There is every reason to believe capital will continue to concentrate in a few sectors and the majority of sectors will continue to lag – in fact, I don’t know why the measurements don’t separate those markets already (for the purpose of the news).
    4) There is every reason to believe capital flight to the USA will continue and accelerate.
    5) There is every reason to believe however that technology will further reduce the population of speculators to those who can afford the compute.
    6) There is every reason to believe that – and get ready for this – the treasury will take over vast portions of the consumer credit, insurance, and investment markets even more so than does singapore, and put that investment into longer time frames and greater yields. The consequence is that institutional dollars derived from consumers will shrink in favor of foreign dollars. The scale of this is likely to be profound. This means that the market will be deprived easy capital, and vast portions of the banking, insurance, and consumer investment sector will be wiped out almost entirely. I cold write more on this but I am one of the authors of all of these policy changes and If I’m thinking of it then so are others.
    6) So basically imagine that capital is scarce, it comes with more strings attached, and from a broader capital base, and that there is MUCH more volatility and much lower growth. And the growth that’s available will be in markets that are riskier than today.

    I don’t really think this is pessimistic. If I were to take a pessimistic stance it would be that there is a non zero chance of a world war, a long running USA ‘troubles’ (civil war) or a catastrophic civil war, and it’s possible both the world war and the civil war occur at the same time, or that the civil war will encourage the world war.

    My job is to look at these fields of possibility. At. present I do not see possibility of continued growth by consumption. So I’ve worked on ‘what to do next’ under that assumption. And it means the equivalent of a restructuring and downsizing for a major industry, until prices and debts equilibrate back to levels possible to alter marriage, reproduction, and consumption rates. And to do so without further lowering national IQ through immigration. We are approaching 97 at present and if it dips below that we are probably headed toward a second world economy. Even today we are suffering from white population decline, such that Asian and Indian populations are supplying workers, and we are still importing talent from europe because europe is unsuited for entrepreneurial growth.

    Cheers
    CD

    Reply addressees: @OKFootball2 @bryanbrey @hendry_hugh


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 23:41:59 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784005031210913793

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783995822721368199

  • More people will. Whether one of those people is you, I can’t answer. ;). I’ll e

    More people will. Whether one of those people is you, I can’t answer. ;).

    I’ll err on the optimistic side of ‘yes’. 😉 -hugs


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 23:28:44 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784001695858512321

    Reply addressees: @Jake64533383814 @bryanbrey @hendry_hugh

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783998201344983470

  • WE ARE AT WAR? (YES WE ARE)

    WE ARE AT WAR? (YES WE ARE) https://twitter.com/WerrellBradley/status/1783811991532093652

  • (yes) 😉

    (yes) 😉


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 22:24:04 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783985423561195630

    Reply addressees: @TabbyTeamster

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783890823156822363

  • CURT: WHAT FUTURE SCENARIOS DO YOU ENVISION FOR THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKET

    CURT: WHAT FUTURE SCENARIOS DO YOU ENVISION FOR THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS?
    Well, I can predict a field of possibilities, but most of my work consists of correcting the entire suite of problems at once rather than piecemeal attempting to circumvent the deterministically… https://twitter.com/curtdoolittle/status/1783960663544537538


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 22:23:21 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783985244946731204

  • I live to serve. (and yes it’s nice to have my brain back) 😉

    I live to serve.
    (and yes it’s nice to have my brain back) 😉


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 22:20:08 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783984434082959666

    Reply addressees: @bryanbrey @hendry_hugh

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783972406027079853

  • CURT WHY DO YOU ATTRIBUTE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE TO KEYNES AND RAWLS? Great Question

    CURT WHY DO YOU ATTRIBUTE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE TO KEYNES AND RAWLS?
    Great Question:

    TLDR; The Conversion of economics from the science of cooperation over the long term (capitalization) to the science of manipulation of the public in the short term (consumption) – under the presumption that the industrial revolution and it’s consequences had produced a horn of plenty that would lead to eternal growth.

    Context: I was educated in science, engineering, computer science, economics, and law. So I have an engineers perspective on problems in social science.

    As such I have maintained a foundation in the Austrian school of economics as the study of economic science, compatible with the empiricism of western common law, and concurrent legislation, with a cautious acceptance for the Chicago “freshwater” school which seeks to insure economies and facilitate the production of such commons as education, and a disdain for the Keynesian, New York, “saltwater” school of economics, that seeks to maximize consumption and debt at the consequence of cumulative risks: kicking the can down the road. These three fields all claim the title of economics but they are instead economics, it’s insurance against shocks, and it’s manipulation.

    Now, that said, in economics I consider Keynes (as did my mentor Hayek) a disaster for economics and policy, and

    I consider John Rawls a disaster for both law legislation and economic policy – because it is their collective efforts that have brought about the present economic crisis in the west: their pretense of endless growth and endless risk, has come to roost.

    So, my critiques of Keynes and Rawls emphasizes their roles in baiting ignorant legislators and willing financiers into economic and legal policies that have led to unsustainable growth, increased debt, and extraordinary economic risks.

    CRITIQUE OF JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES:

    Short-term focus: Keynes advocated for government intervention and increased spending to stimulate economic growth during recessions. However, critics argue that this short-term focus on boosting consumption and aggregate demand neglects the long-term consequences of accumulating debt and the potential for creating economic bubbles.

    Disregard for savings and investment: The Keynesian approach often involves lowering interest rates to encourage borrowing and discourage saving. This can lead to a misallocation of resources, as the artificially low cost of capital may encourage investments in projects that are not economically viable in the long run.

    Inflation and currency devaluation: Keynesian policies, such as expansionary monetary policy and deficit spending, can lead to inflation and currency devaluation over time. This erodes the purchasing power of money, disproportionately affecting savers and those on fixed incomes.

    Crowding out of private investment: When governments borrow heavily to finance spending, they compete with the private sector for available funds. This can lead to higher interest rates and reduced private investment, hindering long-term economic growth.

    Ignoring the role of prices: Keynesian economics often focuses on aggregate demand and overlooks the crucial role of prices in allocating resources efficiently. This can result in market distortions and a misallocation of resources.

    CRITIQUE OF JOHN RAWLS:

    Disregard for individual rights and property: Rawls’ “veil of ignorance” and “difference principle” prioritize redistributive policies over individual rights and property ownership. This can undermine incentives for innovation, risk-taking, and wealth creation.

    Encouragement of rent-seeking behavior: Rawls’ focus on redistribution can encourage rent-seeking behavior, where individuals and groups lobby for special privileges and transfers rather than engaging in productive economic activities.

    Centralized decision-making: The implementation of Rawlsian principles often involves centralized decision-making and government intervention, which can lead to inefficiencies, unintended consequences, and the concentration of power in the hands of a few.

    Disregard for the knowledge problem: Rawls’ theory assumes that a central authority can gather and process all the necessary information to make optimal redistributive decisions. However, this ignores the inherent complexity of economic systems and the dispersed nature of knowledge, as highlighted by the Austrian school.

    Conflict with the rule of law: Rawls’ emphasis on redistributive justice can come into conflict with the principles of the rule of law, such as generality, predictability, and equal treatment. This can lead to arbitrary and discriminatory policies.

    In summary, my criticism of Keynes and Rawls emphasizes their role in promoting short-term thinking, unsustainable policies, and the erosion of individual rights and market efficiency.

    They are the innovators and justificationists of policies whose short term goals produced unintended consequences and long-term risks associated with their ideas, which are seen as contributing factors to the current economic crisis in the West.

    Reply addressees: @cowcow8237465


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 22:19:41 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783984320111079424

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783975871272927609

  • RT @bryanbrey: He’s not a cryptobro, nor a macroguy… but he’s one of best Natu

    RT @bryanbrey: He’s not a cryptobro, nor a macroguy… but he’s one of best Natural Law guys who science decidability and cooperation. He e…


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 22:00:22 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783979458778599601

  • Yes Danielle Anjou has made a reputation, though she uses the modern long and li

    Yes Danielle Anjou has made a reputation, though she uses the modern long and lithe body instead of the more massive of Rodin, the weight of Michaelangelo, and is closest probably to Canova or Donatello. Her fountain (which I don’t recall the title of) was very good. I was taught that complimenting an artist is shallow unless you offer an improvement and then suggest motives, and mine is that she does not quite capture weight, but sometimes these are intentional aesthetic choices and I can see a woman sculptor making that choice. 😉

    Reply addressees: @sauniere


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 20:54:27 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783962871916892160

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783920033397412206

  • yes, I put him up there with the historan and the geostrategists that convey the

    yes, I put him up there with the historan and the geostrategists that convey these concepts in meaningful and accessible form.


    Source date (UTC): 2024-04-26 20:47:56 UTC

    Original post: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783961231365157043

    Reply addressees: @costelloe_w

    Replying to: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1783928176025969031