Mar 20, 2020, 11:49 AM
Goldman Sachs has a devastating revision for its GDP growth predictions
theweek.com
Clockwork. If you understand cycles… Anyway.
The chief contribution of the postwar german austrians was the business cycle. ’08 ended the debate. Austrians are fully integrated into mainstream economic theory.
No, I didn’t predict that the clock would strike midnight because of a virus. I predicted it would be a normal cycle collapse. I wish I had my diagrams from 2004. They were in red pen on copy paper. I hung them on the wall behind my desk.
Learn generational cycles. Learn Demographics. Learn class and cultural differences. Learn technological cycles. Learn business cycles. Learn Hayekian Triangles. Learn enough different industries so that you understand their means of production. There is as much denial of human differences in politics as there is in education – but human differences eventually express in economics politics culture and civilizational ascent or decline.
I built and ran consulting companies. Consulting companies are intelligence organizations. When you know a company’s technology you know how to OPERATIONALIZE that business. you learn a hundred businesses a year or more. I have been operationalizing businesses since I walked out of college. And I wrote simulation games and AI in my spare time, and studied economics.
The patterns are always the same. You can play the market and profit from asymmetric information amongst noise or you can ignore the market and watch the economy and the polity and the culture – BECAUSE YOU ARE MEASURING CAPITAL not income. And that is what I do differently from other economists. I only look at changes in the balance sheet, and income is just noise.
If we get anywhere near the -20% we will have our revolution.
LIKE CLOCKWORK.