—“Curt, when do you think is the next economic / financial crisis slanted? Somebody I know well and trust, who got out of dodge last time around, is expecting it to be less than 18 months out, as indicated by the inverted bond yield curve. Is this accurate?”—- Moritz Bierling

I have been saying that it looks to me like 2017-2020 since 2006. And that we would have some vast reorganizational catastrophe between 2020 and 2025.

I was paying a lot of attention prior to the crisis, and so I was spot on (within 30 days) of estimating it correctly. Even the 2014 return.

(I was conversely waaaaaaaaay off on China, which I thought would run out of options by 2010, but is deftly managing their equilibration and converting to totalitarianism before their great correction).

I am not paying close enough attention to patterns today, so your friend is probably correct. I don’t need greater precision for my work. The reason being that I’m trying to provide “what to do about it” in advance – although still behind schedule.

My understanding, and my strategy, is that we will see convergence in the next 24 months and that will begin the next ‘great wars’ era, because (a) the civil unrest will occupy the west, and (b) world powers in waiting will seize the opportunity, (c) both because they can afford to, and (d) because our ‘model’ (democracy) will have been proven wrong, so they will ‘advance’ under a sense of ‘moral authority to right a tragic wrong’.

I think it is extremely unlikely that I err.

Why? Humans always pursue available incentives.

(PS:

  1. I can tell by the loans being generated that we are at the limit of possible credit expansion and I suspect the bond yield is reflecting it.

  2. I can tell by the absolutely certain future direction of oil prices that this will coincide with and partly drive the rest of the outcomes I anticipate.)

Apr 19, 2018 12:19pm