THE RUSSIAN SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov: sociodemographic cycles
(The implied argument is that the Kondratiev wave and the agrarian waves are about the same, and that we exhaust possibilities of expansion on a predictable cycle (it takes two generations to exhaust and opportunity)
The basic logic of these models is as follows:
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After the population reaches the ceiling of the carrying capacity of land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values.
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The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity of famines, growing rebellions etc.
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As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and the system experienced a demographic collapse (a Malthusian catastrophe), when increasingly severe famines, epidemics, increasing internal warfare and other disasters led to a considerable decline of population.
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As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, the population growth resumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started.