KOTKIN ON THE KREMLIN STATE OF MIND, AND RUSSIA’S SIX POSSIBLE FUTURES –“I mean

KOTKIN ON THE KREMLIN STATE OF MIND, AND RUSSIA’S SIX POSSIBLE FUTURES

–“I mean, I’m from New York and I worked in New Jersey. It’s not like it’s a foreign topic.”–Stephen Kotkin

Explaining his deep understanding of Putin’s government in response to the Prigozhin rebellion as exactly the dynamics of the mob.

Priceless. 😉

Seriously. He has it down. I haven’t seen anyone with this accurate an analysis yet. But that would make sense given kotkin’s record of historical works.

Worth the watch.
https://t.co/zPxUwhaSmu

Index For the TLDR; Crowd:

2:39 to 12:30 Understanding the Kremlin’s Condition

12:31 to 20:28 The Six(8?) Possible Futures for Russia
… 1) Repeat France (Good): absolutist, big bureaucracy, bloody revolutionary tradition, threatening neighbors, into settling down into not threatening your neighbors. (though france still is, just softly)
… 2) Authoritarian Leader, don’t threaten your neighbors (solve the ukraine problem, not the russia problem). Because trying to threaten neighbors is a losing game.
… 3) Chinese Puppet Regime. Stalin vs Mao, reversed. A partner to be anti western to protect the CCP against the west. (Catastrophic for russia as well as the west)
… 4) The Biggest North Korea we’ve ever seen. Isolated, disconnected from the international system, incentivized for mischief across the board. A semi-puppet regime for china but russia constantly troubles china. (This is the current pathway. (CD: I AGREE))
… 5) Anarchy and Collapse.
… 6) We have no idea. 😉
… ?) No 7? This tragedy continues for decades.
… ?) No 8? (CD: Apparently a democratic russia is off the table? Even with the Marshall Plan Times Ten?)

@HooverInst #StephenKotkin