“I mean, I’m from New York and I worked in New Jersey. It’s not like it’s a fore

–“I mean, I’m from New York and I worked in New Jersey. It’s not like it’s a foreign topic.”–Stephen Kotkin

Explaining his deep understanding of Putin’s government in response to the Prigozhin rebellion as exactly the dynamics of the mob.

Priceless. 😉

Seriously. He has it down. I haven’t seen anyone with this accurate an analysis yet. But that would make sense given kotkin’s record of historical works.

Worth the watch.
https://t.co/zPxUwhaSmu

Index For the TLDR; Crowd:

2:39 to 12:30 Understanding the Kremlin’s Condition

12:31 to 20:28 The Six(8?) Possible Futures for Russia
… 1) Repeat France (Good): absolutist, big bureaucracy, bloody revolutionary tradition, threatening neighbors, into settling down into not threatening your neighbors. (though france still is, just softly)
… 2) Authoritarian Leader, don’t threaten your neighbors (solve the ukraine problem, not the russia problem). Because trying to threaten neighbors is a losing game.
… 3) Chinese Puppet Regime. Stalin vs Mao, reversed. A partner to be anti western to protect the CCP against the west. (Catastrophic for russia as well as the west)
… 4) The Biggest North Korea we’ve ever seen. Isolated, disconnected from the international system, incentivized for mischief across the board. A semi-puppet regime for china but russia constantly troubles china. (This is the current pathway. (CD: I AGREE))
… 5) Anarchy and Collapse.
… 6) We have no idea. 😉
… ?) No 7? This tragedy continues for decades.
… ?) No 8? (CD: Apparently a democratic russia is off the table? Even with the Marshall Plan Times Ten?)

@HooverInst #StephenKotkin