The ukrainians assume that if they give up the territory the russians will keep

The ukrainians assume that if they give up the territory the russians will keep pushing to cut them off from the black sea (probably true) and unite russia with Transnistria. The russians have already taken ukrainian oil deposits in the black sea. They’ve already taken Crimea. They’ve already taken the donbas. They are just waiting for a period of geopolitical opportunity under which they can solidify their gains.

By this act of aggression russia has broken the postwar consensus and ended the prohibition on involuntary changes in borders – which was the whole reason for the world wars.

Putin repeatedly threatened all of eastern europe with reoccupation during 2014, and caused nato to re-pivot toward russia, after having nearly denuded nato in europe. There were only 60k total US personnel in all of europe. So this ‘surrounding russia’ stuff from the west’s perspective was ‘russia will unite with germany and we will achieve our long term goals if we can get russia to modernize her government and economy.’ (whch was Gorbachev’s position.)

The western perspective is that the sanctions against russia were serious enough and threat threat of being cut off from the world financial system enough of a death sentence, that this contained russian reassertion.

Now, this does not eliminate the fact that russia was right against the chechens. And that russia was right about serbia. and that russia was right about all the islamic countries. Or that the west is constantly wrong.

This does not eliminate the fact that NATO did not add russia immediately to is membership when putin asked – or that westerners are too fucking stupid to understand russians well enough to just fucking do it. (americans are just too fucking stupid for words).

This does not eliminate the fact that putin’s attack on populism (democracy) is an attack on hedonism in an effort do defend the family and the nation from regression. And that he is right and the west is wrong and suicidal.

The problem is the international principle that “no agreement with russia is worth the paper it’s printed on” holds. And so 2014 fucked up the entire world order.

In other words, putin fucked up. he could have done what was needed and he fucked up. He was the strongest most powerful man in the world and he ‘flinched’.