doolittle and taleb. there is this wonderful movie. its the precursor to war gam

doolittle and taleb.

there is this wonderful movie. its the precursor to war games.

from the early seventies. called colossus – the forbin project.

in the movie the soviet and american supercomputers are aware of each other but have to learn to communicate.

this process goes on a long time, and then they can, and they take over the world.

the problem for taleb and i (mostly me because i understand the problem) is developing that language so that we could get on the same page.

i think if we could have a serious conversation it might be good for both of us. but I don’t see why he would be interested.

he comes very close to the connection every time he talks about mandelbrot, but he doesn’t quite get there.

what he doesn’t yet grasp is this: the only way to win is not to play the mathematical game.

stability consists of voluntary exchanges, not of calculations. why? because voluntary exchanges are within the realm of human cognition and like game theory and equations they are not within the realm of human cognition. Why? because there is less information in every judgment as abstraction increases.

Aggregates are not possible to calculate. As he’s shown for years, it’s all noise.

what does this mean?

debt instruments are not resellable.

doh!….

this line of reasoning is not terribly intuitive but it’s actually the problem with information loss. Think of it as an act of fraud every time a debt instrument is resold. The only possible means of preserving the sanctity(truth content) of debt instruments (skin in the game) is to sell shares in receivables on the debt using divisible shares (ie: blockchain shares), where the issuer is required to retain x% of the capital as warranty of truthfulness.

This kind of thing was not possible in the past. We lacked the tech for it.

It is quite possible that the data that would be produced as a result of the long run observation of the above-suggested process would produce the empirical evidence that taleb is searching for.

i suspect so.

Curt Doolittle

The Propertarian Institute

Kiev, Ukraine