YOU CANT UNANCHOR YOURSELF —Tetlock finds that teams of amateurs trained in ga

YOU CANT UNANCHOR YOURSELF

—Tetlock finds that teams of amateurs trained in gathering information and thinking about it systematically outperformed experts in assigning probabilities of various events in a competition organized by IARPA, research agency under the Director of National Intelligence. In this conversation, Tetlock discusses the meaning, reliability, and usefulness of trying to assign probabilities to one-time events.—