THE REASONS THERE ISN’T ANYBODY OUT THERE? 0) The universe isn’t really old enou

THE REASONS THERE ISN’T ANYBODY OUT THERE?

0) The universe isn’t really old enough to have confidence it’s baked more advanced civilizations. It takes a long time to bake the elements, and then longer to bake life, and longer for intelligence to evolve. On evolutionary time scales, the universe isn’t that old.

1) Why do we think we’ve cracked the technological walnut? Why won’t it take us just as long to invent interstellar travel as it took to invent either farming, science, or the industrial revolution? Why isn’t the computational power necessary to harness the first principles of the universe a logarithmic advance over our current understanding? I mean, most of our prosperity today is the more the result of harnessing fossil fuels than of technological advancement. So why won’t it take us another half billion years to do it? (not that I think it will – but we have no way of knowing.)

2) Out here in the spiral-suburbs its pretty peaceful despite nearly exterminating all life ever 65M years or so. But most of the universe is a very hostile place for life. Most of the starry-places are dangerous given the long period required for life-baking (evolution)

3) Why would anyone more advanced be interested in us given the likely costs of travel? If you can travel, why go slumming? We aren’t terribly interesting.

4) Why would anyone interested in us come here visibly and personally, instead of sending (small, fast) machines to come watch us?

5) Its intuitively unlikely that given our rather young technology, and our inability to solve the fundamentals of the universe that advanced civilizations would communicate by the rather primitive (radiation) means that we do. I mean, smoke signals, yodels, horn blasts, and drum beats seem as silly to us as pushing radiation into the void will to others.

6) Intelligence emerges via predators. And even though predators seek to pacify once they achieve dominance, I am having a hard time imagining a benevolent ET. I mean, if we’re less advanced, the only value one gets out of the terrible expense of interstellar travel is a planetary life system that they have to compete with us for.

So. Shhh… Be a good child and listen.