UKRAINE UPDATE : A LOT GOING ON TODAY. In theory there is a deal. 1) The 2004 co

UKRAINE UPDATE : A LOT GOING ON TODAY.

In theory there is a deal.

1) The 2004 constitution will be restored within 48 hours, and a national unity government will be formed within 10 days.

2) Constitutional reform balancing the powers of president, government and parliament will be started immediately and completed by December.

3) A presidential election will be held after the new constitution is adopted but no later than December 2014

I don’t buy that they will leave Maydan until the president is gone. But if they restore the 2004 constitution. I think he has to resign. As I understand it, they can fire him right away if so. But that doesn’t mean much here, because the locals have even less respect for rule of law than Obama does. “Lie and make it up later” has become as American as it is Post-Soviet.

The reason being (you have to remember this is the east) that you can’t trust anyone here to hold to an agreement, so the ‘opposition’ will just assume that the president is buying time. Personally I’d raise the stakes. Call the europeans and have them freeze the assets of the Oligarchs. The guy is on the ropes here.

One of the districts outlawed the President’s Political party today. I expect that will continue.

EARLY RECONCILIATION IS FAILURE AS I SEE IT

– Focus on Corruption, not people and power.

– Replace the presidency with a prime minister.

– Get reform of the judiciary and police included in the package. (remove current judicial independence which in this country is a bad thing)

– Create a senate for the formal federation of the regions.