INDUCTION AND HUMAN SOCIETY The world is a lot easier to understand if you think

INDUCTION AND HUMAN SOCIETY

The world is a lot easier to understand if you think in terms of incentives that exist in the present, rather than ‘what has happened before’.

Induction is a problem everywhere. The past repeats itself where the incentives are repeated. It’s not that we necessarily will do what we did before, if the incentives are different. Economic history helps us understand that beliefs justify incentives, but that history is a product of incentives. Beliefs and reasons are part of justification. And justification is misleading.

We can’t learn from our justifications what we can learn from reconstructing our incentives.