Theme: Truth

  • Justice Scalia Explains Textualism And Originalism Without Explaining WHY We Must Rely Upon Them.

    Scalia is a bit of a personal hero. I adore his clarity.

    He appeared on Fox the other day, and explained Textualism and Originalism. (See wiki.) But I was frustrated that he kept stating what he believed, and how these things SHOULD be interpreted, but now WHY they should be interpreted that way. Now, I’m sure that’s because it’s obvious as the summer sun to him. But to the average person, it isn’t. The reason we should (and a new constitution should mandate) that we apply the original meaning to the precise text, is to prevent the court from circumventing the legislative process and effectively writing new law without the legislative process. Further, it prevents creative destruction of the constitution through reinterpretation, rather than legislation. And emphasis on originalism forces lawmakers to write clearer laws. The constitution contains a process by which it can be modified. That process achieves it’s goals. But our nation has been lost through the reinterpretation and creative expansion of the law via the courts, where the majority would not have approved such laws had they been subject to the constitutional amendment process. Any law that would modify the original intent of the constittuion, and the text, should be subject to the requrement that the amendment process be followed. This violates the democratic socialist secular humanist proposition, that the legislature, endowed by the people with power, can enact any law that they wish. Of course, this makes no sense, because, that is the very meaning of the ‘rule of law’: limits on what laws can be enacted. And it assumes, incorrectly, that we are wiser than we are.

  • WATCH: NAME CALLING BY SELECTIVELY IGNORING FACTS (Krugman has written a manifes

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/a-manifesto-for-economic-sense/KRUGMAN WATCH: NAME CALLING BY SELECTIVELY IGNORING FACTS

    (Krugman has written a manifesto – a petition – blaming the private sector and demanding government spending, and repeating his claim that we the public don’t understand.)

    As laudable as the effort is, it’s still a half-truth: human beings object to involuntary transfers and ‘cheating’ no matter who is doing it, and which direction it’s going.

    People are not confused. They do not fail to understand. They just place higher priority on preventing moral hazards, involuntary transfers, and all forms of cheating than they do on any upside. People will gladly pay to deny opportunity to, or to punish cheaters. THey are demonstrating that they will pay. The rhetoric is just chaff.

    People do not trust their governments. Heterogeneous populations never do. They do not want to fund expansion of the government or taxes. Every politician I talk to says the same thing: the people are done with taxes. But they are exasperated by their government as well.

    The problem is not that people are confused. The problem is that the polarized political system is supported by equally polarized economists.

    The left economists will not forge a compromise with the middle and right economists and propose a solution that consists of fiscal, monetary, trade, strategic and human capital. The right wants one thing: to end the department of education, and federal control of schools. That will happen anyway over the next decade. Not to trade it right now is foolish. With that one trade they would release all resistance to fiscal policy.

    We have no statesmen. Only politicians and ideologues.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-06-28 08:52:00 UTC

  • “We live in a world of insufficient shared-reality.”

    “We live in a world of insufficient shared-reality.”


    Source date (UTC): 2012-06-27 15:19:00 UTC

  • Logical Fallacies? How about Cognitive Biases, Economic Fallacies, and the singl

    Logical Fallacies? How about Cognitive Biases, Economic Fallacies, and the single most important problem of debate: confusing preferences with truths?


    Source date (UTC): 2012-06-12 10:05:00 UTC

  • QUESTION Is there knowledge or wisdom we would prefer not to have even if it is

    QUESTION

    Is there knowledge or wisdom we would prefer not to have even if it is inescapably true?


    Source date (UTC): 2012-05-17 21:40:00 UTC

  • @Karl Smith RE: “Yet, [people] seem unwilling to give up on tribal beliefs. What

    http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/05/07/the-ideas-of-economists-and-philosophers/http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/05/07/the-ideas-of-economists-and-philosophers

    @Karl Smith

    RE: “Yet, [people] seem unwilling to give up on tribal beliefs. What accounts for this?”

    And, speaking of facts, what evidence do you have that people ever, under any conditions, cease to act according to their tribal sentiments?

    I know you can’t either grasp or accept this, but you’re argument is unscientific.

    Your approach redistributes status, power and identity along with money.

    The people who care most about losing that status, power and identity are those who are invested in status, power, and identity rather than money.

    You are stifled because your VIEW OF MAN IS SUBECT TO THE REDUCTIO ERROR.

    So the question is not how you and your SUBSET OF FACTS prevail in order to support your reductio ideology, but given the TOTALITY of facts, how we can implement a coordinated set of policy provisions.

    The reason you argue against this is that you, like Krugman and DeLong, are not as interested in prosperity as you are in creating a class of political managers that are the sole possessors of status, power and identity, and the citizens are subjects. That might work in a small state. But it will not work in the american empire.

    In other words, you’re proof of the theory. 🙂

    But at least you’re honest about the subset of facts, even if you’re dishonest because you ignore the more salient facts: that money is a route to status, power and identity, and that humans desire to consume those three things above all others.

    Selective chose of FACTS is not scientific. It’s ideological.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-05-07 09:43:00 UTC

  • Teasing Karl Smith: The Futility Of Teaching Pigs To Sing

    Just because Karl Smith is the best progressive economics blogger, and a decent and honest man, doesn’t mean he isn’t a poster child for the errors in progressive thought. It’s precisely WHY hes the best poster child for progressive thought: because he’s a decent and honest and intelligent man, yet he STILL simply bathes himself in the error of progressive sentiments, as if its a serotonin soaking-tub for his neurons. In response to yet another of the Krugman/Smith/Thoma/DeLong fits of exasperation over the systemic failure of federalism, I try to encourage Karl to become enlightened — which I realize is as futile as his fantasy that people will become out-group egalitarians. But I still have hope. 🙂

    Karl, 1) Conservatives have a more accurate view of human nature. They have a more complex view of human nature. That view results in a more skeptical view of human nature. All ‘liberal’ progress has been the result of adding women to the voting pool, the decline in male participation in all facets of society due to legislation, immigration, and migration, and the south’s re-embracing of the republican party causing two-party polarity. It has not been due to a change in preference. And the behavior of new generations is cyclical, not directional.  No one is every convinced of anything.  We fuss and fume to maintain our constituencies and the undecided moderates determine all the outcomes. We must govern with the humans that we have, not the humans we wish we had.I know you find it antithetical, but the conservative case is playing out. This is why conservatism is anti-ideological: all ideologies are progressive. 2) Conservative forecasts are playing out, not because they win arguments but because their understanding of human nature is true:

    • a) Differences in preferences are genetically determined. Differences in strategy have costs to individuals. Individuals resent those that do not pay such costs. Evolution has guaranteed this resentment is necessary and unavoidable. Without it cooperation is not possible, because cheating is more advantageous in the short run.
    • b) Group differences in signaling are biological and inescapable. Differences in signal costs mean groups biologically aggregate, and vote in support of aggregate signals. The signaling economy is of higher value to individuals in groups than is the monetary economy. (This is one reason why Islam is poor and Christendom is wealthy, and why christianity is an outlier: the church — the federal government — managed to break familial and tribal bonds. islam could not create a high trust society, and without it, an adaptable bureaucracy, or modern commercial capitalism.)
    • c) There is a point of minimum homogeneity, beyond which people will cease pursuing redistributive ends. The only countries that can avoid those issues are ‘privileged’ countries like canada and the north of europe, which are small, homogenous, and surrounded by a lack of competitive pressures. The states can never get there.

    3) You can have the world you want in a homogenous nation state. But you cannot have it outside of “Denmark”. Participatory government is for small states. In those states the size also limites the distortive ability of the state, so that civilization-ending, or revolution inducing bubbles are more quickly visible. Your counter argument, which you’ve stated here many times, is that authoritarian governments can achieve these ends. And that is true. And I know that’s what you prefer. But they can also achieve many other ends. And the people in them drop adherence to the high trust society as a way of creating a black market, and a means of rebellion against their ability to enact those ends. You will either have an unequal society because of market meritocracy, or an unequal society because of rebellion against state manipulation of societies’ tendency toward meritocracy. That is, unless you produce societies of people who are homogenous equals in practice. Whether by Harrison-Bergeron dysgenics, or natural and or technical eugenics. Now that’s a comforting thought. :/ You are a wonderful human being. But trying to teach a pig to sing wastes your time and annoys the pig. (I know, I know, it doesn’t stop me either.) Perhaps you were too selective in your reading of Smith, without spending equal time on his Moral Sentiments? 🙂 Or its modern equivalent by Jonathan Haidt? Or its earlier equivalents in Weber, Pareto and Machiavelli? Or Michel’s iron law of oligarchy? I know. I know. I know… The austrians have been silly in their belief in the rational individual. But they’re no sillier than the Keynesian belief in the egalitarian individual. We are attracted to the methods that support our cognitive biases. Cheers

  • KNEW THAT DATA WAS WRONG. I KNEW IT

    http://blog.american.com/2012/04/obamas-inequality-argument-just-utterly-collapsed/I KNEW THAT DATA WAS WRONG. I KNEW IT.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-04-17 04:39:00 UTC

  • MOTIVATIONS We make arguments to test our ideas. We don’t know if they will succ

    MOTIVATIONS

    We make arguments to test our ideas. We don’t know if they will succeed or not until we make them. And even then, until they’re refuted. The only way to know if you’re argument stands is if you can’t, and others can’t, refute it. All arguments are hypotheses open to refutation. If not, then they are simply tautologies. That’s the only scientific proposition to hold.

    In the sciences we make hypothesis and subject them to scrutiny. That is not true in politics. Where we establish our wants, and then simply argue for them.

    This creates a problem in political discourse, because it is very difficult to tell the difference between hypotheses as requests for criticism, and propaganda as a means of building consensus. The first seeks the truth. The second is purely utilitarian.

    My hypothesis is that prosperity is what we desire. And prosperity is a rarity that is produced by complex circumstances. It can be produced by accident (finding oil). It can be produced by conquest (theft). It can be produced organically (the evolution of certain norms – property, reason and hard work). It can be produced by intention (setting up property rights, investing in education, developing good industrial policy, and creating sound money).

    And prosperity is fragile because of its rarity and complexity. This is the essential principle of conservatism. The only persistent form of prosperity comes from technical innovation. Conquest and resources are not something we can be proud of — they tell us nothing about our actions. The first is a harm, the second is an accident. Neither are virtues. And of the two, only conquest is reproducible. — hence the fall of the islamic empire, and the exhaustion of the roman. And unlike commercial productivity wich is mutually beneficial, in conquest, each gain is someone else’s loss.


    Source date (UTC): 2012-04-13 17:05:00 UTC

  • Gödel’s Theorem Needs Godel’s Law

    Kurt Gödel’s incompleteness theorem came up in a debate the other night.  I usually react by hanging my head and groaning in anticipation of the chaos that eventually ensues. But on an impulse made a statement about the narrowness of its applicability in a vain attempt to avoid the conversation. It was futile. Chaos ensued. The conversation really troubled me. Because I couldn’t defend it from memory. I couldn’t reconstruct the argument in my head.  I’ve spent time with the problem in computer science. So much so that it’s intuitive. But I could not remember how to reconstruct the salient part of the problem — the arithmetic requirement — so I couldn’t argue it. I had to go look it up again. And in doing so remembered why I can’t remember it: it’s complicated, and difficult if not impossible to reduce it to something more accessible. That’s why no one does it. 🙂 That’s why no one has done it. Gödel’s theory is one of the most abused concepts referred to by people outside of professional mathematics. And when it is used, it’s almost guaranteed that it’s being used incorrectly. I suspect that’s because of the popularization of the idea by way of the liars paradox, which is then inappropriately applied elsewhere by analogy. But mostly it’s abused as an excuse to create arguments to defend mysticism in religion and avoidance in philosophy, and to justify any state of skepticism. Instead, it is in fact, a fairly narrow argument, related to axioms and number theory. ie: questions within axiomatic systems that are testable by the rules of arithmetic. I do no better. I usually express it as “given any fixed axiomatic system, there are statements that are expressible that are contradictory to the claim of completeness.” Which itself is incomplete because the difficulty with Gödel’s theory is in describing its arithmetic requirements — and that description is complicated, which is why it’s never included in any definition, and by that omission leads to its spread by erroneous analogy. This simplified definition is useful within computer science, because computers themselves are bound by Gödel’s arithmetic constraint in the first place — unlike mathematics, wherein he discussion of Gödel’s theorem must specifically address the arithmetic requirement in order for it to be narrow enough to be true. So we have three categories of problems that help us understand Gödel’s theorem in the abstract even if the mathematical concepts are difficult to convey other than by examples that are difficult to construct: 1) the computational problem set which is by definition constrained, 2) the mathematical problem set which must be constrained, and 3) the linguistic problem which cannot be constrained. And philosophical questions are part of set 3 – impossible to constrain to arithmetic limits which are the reason incompleteness is imposed by the theorem. The net result is that Godel’s theorem is, for all intents and purposes, never applicable to non-mathematical, non-computational propositions. Ever. But since, in casual debate, we break Godwin’s law in any conversation by mentioning Nazis about once an hour, then even if we created a new law: “The inclusion of Gödel in any philosophical discourse is sufficient proof that the argument is faulty”, we would still break it once a week. Because in the end, people of philosophical bent, are actually searching to fulfill their un-sated desire for mystical release from our inescapable requirement to reason and adapt to a constantly changing, and entirely kaleidic reality. 🙂 Here is a wonderful little criticism by From Cosma Shalizi, Assistant Professor, Carnegie Mellon University. And as such it is only an appeal to authority – again, because the proof is burdensome and inaccessible.

    “There are two very common but fallacious conclusions people make from this, and an immense number of uncommon but equally fallacious errors I shan’t bother with. The first is that Gödel’s theorem imposes some some of profound limitation on knowledge, science, mathematics. Now, as to science, this ignores in the first place that Gödel’s theorem applies to deduction from axioms, a useful and important sort of reasoning, but one so far from being our only source of knowledge it’s not even funny. It’s not even a very common mode of reasoning in the sciences, though there are axiomatic formulations of some parts of physics. Even within this comparatively small circle, we have at most established that there are some propositions about numbers which we can’t prove formally. As Hintikka says, “Gödel’s incompleteness result does not touch directly on the most important sense of completeness and incompleteness, namely, descriptive completeness and incompleteness,” the sense in which an axiom system describes a given field. In particular, the result “casts absolutely no shadow on the notion of truth. All that it says is that the whole set of arithmetical truths cannot be listed, one by one, by a Turing machine.” Equivalently, there is no algorithm which can decide the truth of all arithmetical propositions. And that is all. This brings us to the other, and possibly even more common fallacy, that Gödel’s theorem says artificial intelligence is impossible, or that machines cannot think. The argument, so far as there is one, usually runs as follows. Axiomatic systems are equivalent to abstract computers, to Turing machines, of which our computers are (approximate) realizations. (True.) Since there are true propositions which cannot be deduced by interesting axiomatic systems, there are results which cannot be obtained by computers, either. (True.) But we can obtain those results, so our thinking cannot be adequately represented by a computer, or an axiomatic system. Therefore, we are not computational machines, and none of them could be as intelligent as we are; quod erat demonstrandum. This would actually be a valid demonstration, were only the penultimate sentence true; but no one has ever presented any evidence that it is true, only vigorous hand-waving and the occasional heartfelt assertion.”

    WEB

    • http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GoedelsIncompletenessTheorem.html
    • http://math.mind-crafts.com/godels_incompleteness_theorems.php
    • http://math.stanford.edu/~feferman/papers/Godel-IAS.pdf
    • http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/goedel/#IncThe

    Recommended by Shalizi

    • Michael Arbib, Brains, Machines and Mathematics [A good sketch of the proof of the theorem, without vaporizing]
    • George S. Boolos and Richard C. Jeffrey, Computability and Logic [Textbook, with a good discussion of incompleteness results, along with many other things. Intended more for those interested in the logical than the computational aspects of the subject — they do more with model theory than with different notions of computation, for instance — but very strong all around.]
    • Torkel Franzen, Gödel’s on the net [Gentle debunking of many of the more common fallacies and misunderstandings]
    • Jaakko Hintikka, The Principles of Mathematics Revisited [Does a nice job of defusing Gödel’s theorem, independently of some interesting ideas about logical truth and the like, about which I remain agnostic. My quotations above are from p. 95]
    • Dale Myers, Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorem [A very nice web page that builds slowly to the proof]
    • Roger Penrose, The Emperor’s New Mind [Does a marvelous job of explaining what goes into the proof — his presentation could be understood by a bright high school student, or even an MBA — but then degenerates into an unusually awful specimen of the standard argument against artificial intelligence]
    • Willard Van Orman Quine, Mathematical Logic [Proves a result which is actually somewhat stronger than the usual version of Gödel’s theorem in the last chapter, which however adds no philosophical profundity; review]
    • Raymond Smullyan, Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems [A mathematical textbook, not for the faint at heart, though the first chapter isn’t so bad; one of the few to notice the strength of Quine’s result]
    • To read:
    • John C. Collins, “On the Compatibility Between Physics and Intelligent Organisms,” physics/0102024 [Claims to have a truly elegant refutation of Penrose]
    • Rebecca Goldstein, Incompleteness [Biography of Gödel, which seems to actually understand the math]
    • Ernest Nagel and James R. Newman, Gödel’s Proof [Thanks to S. T. Smith for the recommendation]
    • Mario Rabinowitz, “Do the Laws of Nature and Physics Agree About What is Allowed and Forbidden?” physics/0104001